Drop Kick Data (AFL)

Expected Scores Summary, Round 1, 2026

My first weekly review of the season – in an all-new, hopefully improved format. I look at how the Swans breached the blue dam wall, Collingwood's records in games with big i50 discrepancies, and more. Tell me what you think works, doesn't, etc. onepercenters.net.au/p/how-the-swan…

@JamesIves17 I wonder if Geelong and Adelaide's easier schedules led them to being overrated a little bit on some of these measures

The Turnover Game: Grand Final - Brisbane bucking a strong trend.. - Update: 18 of the last 20 premiers have ranked in the top 3 for net score differential

🚨🆕 on The Shinboner 🚨 How Brisbane flipped the script: The lessons they learned from the Qualifying Final loss, what they changed for the Grand Final, and how they executed it all to win the ultimate prize. ↪️ theshinboner.com/2025/09/29/how…

@AflGlicko Coming for you

Wheelo has won, but the race for second is insane.

Grand Final Preview - Brisbane must win the clearance battle between the arcs - Geelong need to neutralise stoppage and limit Brisbane’s uncontested marks - So many critical matchups.. more to come

@andrew_whelan Any theories on rucks? Ie. gawn/Jackson being over with Grundy/Cameron unders ... Maybe scoreboard impact ? Or just that they are higher profile players in media etc. Or random ...

🏅Biggest differential in votes wheeloratings.com/afl_brownlow_l… #brownlowmedal #brownlow

Biggest differential in votes in individual matches #brownlowmedal #brownlow

🏅Brownlow Medal 2025 Win probability after round 9: 1️⃣ Matt Rowell - 64.0% 2️⃣ Nick Daicos - 45.8% 3️⃣ Jordan Dawson - 0.4% 4️⃣ Bailey Smith - 0.4% Follow live: wheeloratings.com/afl_brownlow_l… #brownlowmedal #brownlow

@crow_data_sigh Indeed! Added historical performance vs. expected which nudged him ahead of everyone else.

@DropKickData models big on daicos this year it seems 👀

Brownlow model time 🏅 - N. Daicos winning in about 80% of simulations - Dawson, Anderson and Smith the challengers

quality video youtube.com/watch?v=C256Z8…

Or checkout other models here: x.com/QuantPunter/st…

More from me here: public.tableau.com/app/profile/jo…

It's that time of year again - Brownlow Eve. Here are the 2025 consensus predictions round by round! If you have a model / or know one that's missing, comment below (still awaiting a couple incl. last years' winners @greenlitaccount and @SgtButane ). docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

AFL Finals Week 2: Adelaide vs Hawthorn preview Can Hawthorn handball their way through Adelaide’s aerial presence between the arcs? Will Adelaide change lanes in deep transition?

@CalTwomey @AFLcomau Nasiah the resigner

Exclusive - Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera has decided to stay at St Kilda. Understand the superstar Saint is set to sign a two-year extension and become the AFL’s first $2 million player. More on @AFLcomau.

@Lacertilian @crow_data_sigh @SquiggleAFL Reckon I've sorted this one! The tick / cross was was pulling from a field using expected score rather than actual score.

@crow_data_sigh @SquiggleAFL @DropKickData I noticed a similar thing a few weeks ago where the results didn't even match the real game outcomes

hey @SquiggleAFL @DropKickData your model predictions don't line up across sources, ie tableau public != squiggle. last week your tableau has swans 55%, but squiggle has 61%. most games I've checked are out, including this round

@crow_data_sigh @SquiggleAFL I'm surprised someone has even looked at this! Haven't had the the time to update but Tableau is an old ELO only version of the model. Squiggle has a newer version which is ELO + players

@JamesIves17 Great view mate! Got the under performers handy?

Outperforming xScore leaders

Coleman contenders shot charts