ECFR

☢️New ECFR's interactive dashboard! "Iran Nuclear Monitor: Month by Month" It forecasts 6 realistic scenarios ahead for the nuclear program, explaining why and how they could unfold & the threat level each poses to Western security interests. @ECFRMena ecfr.eu/special/iran-n…

A loyal voter base is allowing Trump to dominate the Republican Party and strengthen his control before the midterms. Now his sidelining of Congress is weakening the traditional checks on presidential power, write @cw_herrmann and @nevadajoan ecfr.eu/article/as-the…

Drawing on the Northern Ireland peace process, he argues for a phased decommissioning model in which #disarmament becomes the outcome of a functioning peace—not the prerequisite for one. Read the six tangible steps that should now be taken along the disarmament track in the full article.

Muhammad examines why the #Gaza #ceasefire is at risk of collapse as #Israel and the Board of Peace push for Hamas’s immediate and full disarmament before reconstruction, governance transition or political negotiations can begin.

A Northern Ireland-style approach to decommissioning could help unblock the path to peace in Gaza, writes @muhammadshehad2 in his latest commentary. 👇 @ECFRMena ecfr.eu/article/rescui…

Trump’s 20-point Gaza plan is at risk of falling apart because of American and Israeli maximalism over how, and how quickly, Hamas gives up its weapons. A Northern Ireland-style approach to decommissioning could help unblock the path to peace in Gaza, writes @muhammadshehad2 ecfr.eu/article/rescui…

How should Europe rethink connectivity in a region where maritime chokepoints are routinely weaponised? @Cinzia_Bianco and @arturo_varvelli examine how the war in #Iran and the closure of the Strait of #Hormuz are reshaping the logic behind the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (#IMEC). 👇 @ECFRRoma @ECFRMena ecfr.eu/article/bypass…

🎥 In case you missed it, the recording of our latest webinar on recent attacks in Mali and broader developments in the Sahel region, as well as implications for Europe, is now online. @ecfr @ECFRMadrid You can watch it here 👇️ buff.ly/AeAmWqa

🚨 Policy brief! Decarbonizzare lo shipping globale è una sfida enorme. Ma è anche un'opportunità per #Europa 🇪🇺 e #Africa. Il voto sul quadro Net-Zero potrebbe essere il catalizzatore per l'idrogeno verde. Il nuovo policy brief @ecfr di Sarah Logan 👇 buff.ly/iLhnNbY

New @muhammadshehad2 @ecfr commentary on the Gaza ceasefire at risk: ‘Hamas has signalled willingness to decommission its heavy weapons and negotiate broader demilitarisation within the context of peace talks. This opportunity should not be squandered.’ ecfr.eu/article/rescui…

I look at this chilling effect of Chinese threats in my latest for @ecfr. The bottom line is that Europeans can only successfully deal with the China shock when industrial protection and economic deterrence are combined into a comprehensive agenda. 2/

If European policymakers pre-emptively drop measures to address the China shock more systematically for fear of retaliation, the chilling effect of Chinese coercion works just as well, without having to actually use its tools 1/

🇮🇳 La guerra in #Iran lo ha dimostrato: l'IMEC è stato progettato per la pace. Con Hormuz chiuso e i Paesi del Golfo diffidenti verso Israele, l'Europa deve ripensare il corridoio. Il nuovo commento @ecfr di @Cinzia_Bianco e @arturo_varvelli 👇 buff.ly/p3aTGrF

Highly recommend reading this analysis from @Cinzia_Bianco "Iran and Israel have an interest in making the GCC divided and dependent; Europe by contrast has a strong interest in a unified and stabilised GCC. As such, Europeans should throw their weight behind new regional security talks after any future US-Iran agreement, pushing for a comprehensive and sustainable regional accord that reduces the risk of continued war." ecfr.eu/article/the-po… via @ecfr

🔴 NEW commentary by @muhammadshehad2: A Northern Ireland-style decommissioning model could help unlock a path to peace in Gaza. Europe should work with influential Board of Peace members to push the US toward a more realistic approach to Hamas’s weapons. buff.ly/7YeDxHm

Explore how analyzing multiple nuclear indicators together can reveal Iran's true intentions and risks: bit.ly/4dPrjcn More of the conversation here: apple.co/4dyLmfn #iran #iranisraelwar #nuclear

You can find the nuclear monitor here: ecfr.eu/special/iran-n…

In this week's World in 30 Minutes podcast episode, @markhleonard, @KelseyDav, and Ellie Geranmayeh introduce ECFR’s Iran nuclear monitor, and discuss the key risks and scenarios associated with Iran’s current nuclear capacity 👇 ecfr.eu/podcasts/episo…

As uncertainty grows over the fate of Iran’s nuclear programme amidst a fragile ceasefire between Iran and the US, Mark Leonard, Ellie Geranmayeh and Kelsey Davenport introduce ECFR's newest interactive project "The Iran Nuclear Monitor" and discuss the key scenarios associated with Iran’s nuclear capacity and whether Europe has a role in shaping the negotiations with Tehran. 🎧 Listen to the full podcast here: bit.ly/4tS7kPl 👉 Access the interactive dashboard: bit.ly/4dPrjcn

How is the UAE reshaping Gulf politics after the Iran war? In the latest commentary, @Cinzia_Bianco explores how Abu Dhabi is moving away from traditional Gulf consensus politics toward greater strategic autonomy, harder security alliances, and a more assertive regional role. From tensions with Iran to the UAE’s decision to leave OPEC, she examines how war and insecurity are transforming Gulf geopolitics — and what this means for Europe and the wider region. Read the full article here: bit.ly/4uicbdo

🧵 In the latest @ecfr World in 30 Minutes episode, @markhleonard welcomes Ellie Geranmayeh and @KelseyDav to discuss Iran's nuclear program. The bottom line: Despite all the bombing, the US has not solved the nuclear dilemma with Iran. 👇️ buff.ly/6APUwuB