Tobias Gehrke

President Trump divides the world into those who have cards and those who don’t. So, Europeans need to learn to play cards quickly. In my latest policy brief, I review Europe’s economic hand and explore what it would mean to deploy these cards against US aggression. 1/8

As Europe seriously contemplates retaliation against US tariffs as a way of striking a better bargain, I’m reposting Tobias Gehrke’s excellent overview of Europe’s economic arsenal. The bloc has more leverage than commonly assumed. ecfr.eu/publication/br…

.@ECFR's Tobias Gehrke on the supposedly imminent 🇺🇸🇪🇺 trade pact: "This deal may spare Europe the worst of Trump’s tariffs. But it comes at the cost of sacrificing its interests and international credibility." "Only few in Brussels will pop champagne. The EU fumbled its hand, despite holding decent cards. It talked about ‘negotiating from a position of strength’ while refusing to flex any muscle. Deterrence only works if the other side believes you’ll use it." "While Washington and Beijing take economic hostages and barter them for power, Europe still recites  the rulebook. The strategic mindset gap has rarely been so stark."

@ecfr 1/ @TGehrke_ outlined his "rule of 90": an assertive vision of what Europeans should seek to achieve in trade talks with Trump over the next: - 90 days, - 90 weeks, - and 90 months. ecfr.eu/article/cards-…

Facing Trump's tariff threats, the EU must play its cards wisely. A phased negotiation strategy could turn the tide in Europe's favor, writes @TGehrke_ @ECFRPower Read his new commentary, here 👇 bit.ly/4jx7UO1

Selon le chercheur @TGehrke_, les Européens sous-estiment les atouts à leur disposition alors que Donald Trump doit dévoiler aujourd’hui de nouveaux droits de douane dans le cadre du "Liberation Day". ➡️ l.lexpress.fr/bZH ✍️ @anne_cagan

@polidemitolog thanks, aleksander. here's the piece in full: ecfr.eu/publication/br…

Faced with an aggressive Trump administration, Europeans must recognize their leverage, according to a policy brief by Tobias Gehrke, a senior policy fellow at ECFR. Across trade, technology, infrastructure, finance, and people-to-people ties, the EU holds “cards” to counter Trump’s threats, like tariffs and political pressure. Gehrke suggests Europe can deter US coercion by exploiting mutual dependencies. Europe’s options span tariff measures (e.g., Enforcement Regulation), digital tools (e.g., Digital Services Act), tech restrictions (e.g., EU Dual-Use Regulation), financial levers (e.g., reducing dollar reliance), and sanctions. To wield these effectively, Gehrke proposes an economic power doctrine, an economic deterrence tsar, a steering group of willing states, a faster Anti-Coercion Instrument, and a solidarity fund to offset costs.

My colleague @TGehrke_ has surveyed Europe's retaliatory options across trade, services, financial, tech & other realms. Turns out, Europe actually has the cards. (Kudos to colleagues for the nice title!) ecfr.eu/publication/br…

Ahead of 'Liberation Day' and yesterday's car tariff announcement, my comments to this @business story on how 🇪🇺 could respond to Trumpian coercion. by @europressos bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Europeans must quickly learn to navigate their leverage over Trump and his America. They need a clear plan for their transatlantic strategy, deciding where to align with, rebalance, or diverge from the US, writes @TGehrke_ @ECFRGeoecon buff.ly/dvrDpee

Die #Trump-Regierung überzieht gerade zahlreiche Länder mit Drohungen und Tarifen - auch die #EU. Welche machtvolle Karten kann sie gegen die #USA hier ausspielen? Starker Artikel von @ECFRBerlin / @TGehrke_ #EUTheBlueForce #EUEconomy #DemocracyVsAutocracy #PulseofEurope

🎧Im aktuellen Podcast begrüßt @markhleonard @jitorreblanca und @TGehrke_ , um Europas Einflussmöglichkeiten gegen Donald Trumps wirtschaftlichen und technologischen Zwang zu erkunden ecfr.eu/podcasts/episo…

"Europeans need to learn quickly how to play cards. They must assess the hand they have—Europe’s own sources of leverage over Trump and Trump’s America—and how to strengthen that hand." - @TGehrke_ Read about the hand that Brussels is holding and what cards they may play. 1/2

New @ecfr podcast episode in which @markhleonard , @jitorreblanca and I dive into Europe's economic and digital deterrence options in a new transatlantic age.

How should Europe take on the tech bros? Deterrence or escalation? Listen to our new podcast with @markhleonard and @TGehrke_

As trade war with the US looms, and other Trumpian threats proliferate, @ecfr's @TGehrke_ has surveyed Europe's retaliatory options across trade, services, financial, tech & other realms. He finds that Europeans hold more "cards" than they may realise ⬇️ ecfr.eu/publication/br…

Here is the full piece ecfr.eu/publication/br… @ecfr @ECFRGeoecon 8/8

Ultimately, Europe’s strength in this new age depends on its ability to consolidate its economic cards into one formidable hand and play that hand smartly, transforming individual assets into a collective trump card against coercion. 7/8

President Trump divides the world into those who have cards and those who don’t. So, Europeans need to learn to play cards quickly. In my latest policy brief, I review Europe’s economic hand and explore what it would mean to deploy these cards against US aggression. 1/8