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@EDIGuy01

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United States Katılım Aralık 2022
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EDIGuy@EDIGuy01·
Most people do not understand this. Great post.
M.A. Rothman@MichaelARothman

𝐖𝐇𝐘 𝐃𝐎𝐄𝐒 𝐀 𝐆𝐀𝐋𝐋𝐎𝐍 𝐎𝐅 𝐆𝐀𝐒 𝐂𝐎𝐒𝐓 $𝟓.𝟐𝟎 𝐈𝐍 𝐋𝐎𝐒 𝐀𝐍𝐆𝐄𝐋𝐄𝐒 𝐀𝐍𝐃 $𝟐.𝟕𝟖 𝐈𝐍 𝐁𝐈𝐋𝐎𝐗𝐈? 𝐈𝐓’𝐒 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐆𝐋𝐎𝐁𝐀𝐋 𝐎𝐈𝐋 𝐏𝐑𝐈𝐂𝐄. 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐎𝐈𝐋 𝐈𝐒 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐒𝐀𝐌𝐄 𝐎𝐈𝐋. 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐃𝐈𝐅𝐅𝐄𝐑𝐄𝐍𝐂𝐄 𝐈𝐒 𝐏𝐎𝐋𝐈𝐂𝐘 — 𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐓𝐄 𝐓𝐀𝐗, 𝐅𝐄𝐃𝐄𝐑𝐀𝐋 𝐓𝐀𝐗, 𝐄𝐍𝐕𝐈𝐑𝐎𝐍𝐌𝐄𝐍𝐓𝐀𝐋 𝐂𝐑𝐄𝐃𝐈𝐓 𝐌𝐀𝐑𝐊𝐄𝐓𝐒, 𝐁𝐋𝐄𝐍𝐃 𝐌𝐀𝐍𝐃𝐀𝐓𝐄𝐒, 𝐀𝐍𝐃, 𝐌𝐎𝐒𝐓 𝐈𝐌𝐏𝐎𝐑𝐓𝐀𝐍𝐓𝐋𝐘, 𝐀 𝟓𝟎-𝐘𝐄𝐀𝐑 𝐑𝐄𝐅𝐔𝐒𝐀𝐋 𝐓𝐎 𝐁𝐔𝐈𝐋𝐃 𝐀 𝐒𝐈𝐍𝐆𝐋𝐄 𝐍𝐄𝐖 𝐑𝐄𝐅𝐈𝐍𝐄𝐑𝐘. 𝐀𝐍𝐃 𝐇𝐄𝐑𝐄’𝐒 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐏𝐀𝐑𝐀𝐃𝐎𝐗 𝐓𝐇𝐀𝐓 𝐁𝐑𝐄𝐀𝐊𝐒 𝐄𝐕𝐄𝐑𝐘 𝐆𝐑𝐄𝐄𝐍 𝐀𝐑𝐆𝐔𝐌𝐄𝐍𝐓: 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐔.𝐒. 𝐈𝐒 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐖𝐎𝐑𝐋𝐃’𝐒 #𝟏 𝐎𝐈𝐋 𝐏𝐑𝐎𝐃𝐔𝐂𝐄𝐑. 𝐖𝐄 𝐄𝐗𝐏𝐎𝐑𝐓 𝟒 𝐌𝐈𝐋𝐋𝐈𝐎𝐍 𝐁𝐀𝐑𝐑𝐄𝐋𝐒 𝐀 𝐃𝐀𝐘. 𝐖𝐄 𝐀𝐋𝐒𝐎 𝐈𝐌𝐏𝐎𝐑𝐓 𝟔 𝐌𝐈𝐋𝐋𝐈𝐎𝐍 𝐁𝐀𝐑𝐑𝐄𝐋𝐒 𝐀 𝐃𝐀𝐘. 𝐖𝐇𝐘? 𝐁𝐄𝐂𝐀𝐔𝐒𝐄 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐋𝐄𝐅𝐓 𝐇𝐀𝐒𝐍’𝐓 𝐋𝐄𝐓 𝐔𝐒 𝐁𝐔𝐈𝐋𝐃 𝐀 𝐑𝐄𝐅𝐈𝐍𝐄𝐑𝐘 𝐒𝐈𝐍𝐂𝐄 𝐉𝐈𝐌𝐌𝐘 𝐂𝐀𝐑𝐓𝐄𝐑. 𝐖𝐇𝐀𝐓 𝐘𝐎𝐔 𝐀𝐂𝐓𝐔𝐀𝐋𝐋𝐘 𝐏𝐀𝐘 𝐅𝐎𝐑 𝐖𝐇𝐄𝐍 𝐘𝐎𝐔 𝐅𝐈𝐋𝐋 𝐔𝐏 𝐈𝐍 𝐂𝐀𝐋𝐈𝐅𝐎𝐑𝐍𝐈𝐀. Take a $5.20/gallon pump price at a Chevron in Los Angeles, May 2026. Decompose it the way the Energy Information Administration does (numbers below sum to $5.20): — 𝘊𝘳𝘶𝘥𝘦 𝘰𝘪𝘭 𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘰𝘤𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘰 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘨𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘰𝘯: $1.85 — 𝘙𝘦𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘤𝘰𝘴𝘵 & 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘧𝘪𝘵: $0.50 — 𝘋𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘣𝘶𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯, 𝘮𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨, 𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘮𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘶𝘱: $0.45 — 𝘍𝘦𝘥𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘭 𝘦𝘹𝘤𝘪𝘴𝘦 𝘵𝘢𝘹: $0.184 — 𝘊𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘯𝘪𝘢 𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘦𝘹𝘤𝘪𝘴𝘦 𝘵𝘢𝘹: $0.611 (𝘩𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯) — 𝘊𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘯𝘪𝘢 𝘴𝘢𝘭𝘦𝘴 𝘵𝘢𝘹 𝘰𝘯 𝘨𝘢𝘴𝘰𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘦: $0.205 — 𝘊𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘯𝘪𝘢 𝘊𝘢𝘱-𝘢𝘯𝘥-𝘛𝘳𝘢𝘥𝘦 𝘤𝘢𝘳𝘣𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘢𝘹: $0.27 — 𝘊𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘯𝘪𝘢 𝘓𝘰𝘸-𝘊𝘢𝘳𝘣𝘰𝘯 𝘍𝘶𝘦𝘭 𝘚𝘵𝘢𝘯𝘥𝘢𝘳𝘥 (𝘓𝘊𝘍𝘚): $0.16 — 𝘊𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘯𝘪𝘢 𝘜𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘳𝘨𝘳𝘰𝘶𝘯𝘥 𝘚𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘢𝘨𝘦 𝘛𝘢𝘯𝘬 𝘧𝘦𝘦: $0.02 — 𝘊𝘈𝘙𝘉 𝘴𝘱𝘦𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭-𝘣𝘭𝘦𝘯𝘥 (𝘊𝘈𝘙𝘉𝘖𝘉) 𝘳𝘦𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘮𝘪𝘶𝘮: $0.95 Now do the same gallon at a Shell in Biloxi, Mississippi for $2.78 (numbers sum to $2.78): — 𝘊𝘳𝘶𝘥𝘦 𝘰𝘪𝘭 𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘰𝘤𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘰 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘨𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘰𝘯: $1.85 (𝘴𝘢𝘮𝘦 𝘨𝘭𝘰𝘣𝘢𝘭 𝘮𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵) — 𝘙𝘦𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘤𝘰𝘴𝘵 & 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘧𝘪𝘵: $0.35 (𝘯𝘰 𝘴𝘱𝘦𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘣𝘭𝘦𝘯𝘥 𝘳𝘦𝘲𝘶𝘪𝘳𝘦𝘥) — 𝘋𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘣𝘶𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯, 𝘮𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨, 𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘮𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘶𝘱: $0.22 — 𝘍𝘦𝘥𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘭 𝘦𝘹𝘤𝘪𝘴𝘦 𝘵𝘢𝘹: $0.184 — 𝘔𝘪𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘱𝘱𝘪 𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘦𝘹𝘤𝘪𝘴𝘦 𝘵𝘢𝘹: $0.184 — 𝘕𝘰 𝘤𝘢𝘱-𝘢𝘯𝘥-𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘥𝘦. 𝘕𝘰 𝘓𝘊𝘍𝘚. 𝘕𝘰 𝘴𝘱𝘦𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘣𝘭𝘦𝘯𝘥. 𝘕𝘰 𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘴𝘢𝘭𝘦𝘴 𝘵𝘢𝘹 𝘰𝘯 𝘨𝘢𝘴. The crude is the same crude. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐫𝐞 $𝟐.𝟒𝟐 𝐝𝐢𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐛𝐞𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐋𝐀 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐁𝐢𝐥𝐨𝐱𝐢 𝐢𝐬 𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐫𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 — 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐥𝐝 𝐨𝐢𝐥 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭. Sacramento’s special-blend mandate, taxes, and credit-market schemes account for the vast majority of the LA premium. Biloxi has none of them. 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐑𝐄𝐅𝐈𝐍𝐄𝐑𝐘 𝐏𝐑𝐎𝐁𝐋𝐄𝐌 𝐈𝐒 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐒𝐄𝐂𝐎𝐍𝐃 𝐇𝐀𝐋𝐅 𝐎𝐅 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐒𝐓𝐎𝐑𝐘. The United States has not built a new major greenfield refinery since 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐧’𝐬 𝐆𝐚𝐫𝐲𝐯𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐞, 𝐋𝐨𝐮𝐢𝐬𝐢𝐚𝐧𝐚 𝐩𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐭 𝐜𝐚𝐦𝐞 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐢𝐧 𝟏𝟗𝟕𝟕. That is 49 years. In 1981, U.S. refining capacity peaked at 18.6 million barrels per day across 324 operating refineries. Today it is 𝟏𝟕.𝟗 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐛𝐚𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐬 𝐩𝐞𝐫 𝐝𝐚𝐲 𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨𝐬𝐬 𝟏𝟑𝟐 𝐫𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐬. We have demolished or shuttered nearly 200 refineries in 45 years and built ZERO replacements. California specifically has lost 𝟐 𝐫𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝟏𝟖 𝐦𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐡𝐬: — 𝘗𝘩𝘪𝘭𝘭𝘪𝘱𝘴 66 𝘞𝘪𝘭𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘨𝘵𝘰𝘯 (139,000 𝘣𝘱𝘥) — 𝘤𝘭𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘥 𝘖𝘤𝘵𝘰𝘣𝘦𝘳 2025 — 𝘝𝘢𝘭𝘦𝘳𝘰 𝘉𝘦𝘯𝘪𝘤𝘪𝘢 (145,000 𝘣𝘱𝘥) — 𝘢𝘯𝘯𝘰𝘶𝘯𝘤𝘦𝘥 𝘤𝘭𝘰𝘴𝘶𝘳𝘦 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘈𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘭 2026 — 𝘔𝘢𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘯 𝘔𝘢𝘳𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘻 (157,000 𝘣𝘱𝘥) — 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘰 𝘳𝘦𝘯𝘦𝘸𝘢𝘣𝘭𝘦 𝘥𝘪𝘦𝘴𝘦𝘭 2023 California now has 𝟗 𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐫𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝟏𝟒 𝐢𝐧 𝟐𝟎𝟏𝟎. Total state capacity has dropped from 1.95 million bpd to under 1.5 million bpd. The state still consumes the same 12 billion gallons of gasoline a year. 𝐖𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐬𝐮𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐲 𝐬𝐡𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐤𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐝𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐲𝐬 𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭, 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐞. 𝐓𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐚 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐟𝐚𝐢𝐥𝐮𝐫𝐞. 𝐓𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐲 𝐬𝐮𝐜𝐜𝐞𝐬𝐬 — 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐞𝐨𝐩𝐥𝐞 𝐰𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐲. 𝐖𝐇𝐘 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐋𝐄𝐅𝐓 𝐑𝐄𝐅𝐔𝐒𝐄𝐒 𝐓𝐎 𝐋𝐄𝐓 𝐀 𝐍𝐄𝐖 𝐑𝐄𝐅𝐈𝐍𝐄𝐑𝐘 𝐆𝐄𝐓 𝐁𝐔𝐈𝐋𝐓. Building a major refinery in the United States today requires $𝟏𝟎-𝟐𝟎 𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐢𝐧 𝐜𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥 and roughly 𝟖-𝟏𝟐 𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐦𝐢𝐭𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 before the first weld. The obstacles are not engineering. They are political: — 𝘍𝘦𝘥𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘭 𝘕𝘌𝘗𝘈 𝘳𝘦𝘷𝘪𝘦𝘸 (𝘌𝘯𝘷𝘪𝘳𝘰𝘯𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘢𝘭 𝘐𝘮𝘱𝘢𝘤𝘵 𝘚𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵): 3-7 𝘺𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘴. — 𝘚𝘪𝘦𝘳𝘳𝘢 𝘊𝘭𝘶𝘣 / 𝘕𝘙𝘋𝘊 / 𝘌𝘢𝘳𝘵𝘩𝘫𝘶𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘤𝘦 𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘨𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯: 𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘺 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘮𝘪𝘵 𝘣𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘴 𝘢 5-𝘺𝘦𝘢𝘳 𝘤𝘰𝘶𝘳𝘵 𝘣𝘢𝘵𝘵𝘭𝘦. — 𝘚𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘭𝘰𝘤𝘢𝘭 𝘻𝘰𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨: 𝘩𝘰𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘭𝘦 𝘣𝘭𝘶𝘦-𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘭𝘦𝘨𝘪𝘴𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦𝘴 𝘦𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦𝘭𝘺 𝘷𝘦𝘵𝘰 𝘴𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨. — 𝘌𝘗𝘈 𝘳𝘶𝘭𝘦 𝘤𝘩𝘶𝘳𝘯: 𝘦𝘢𝘤𝘩 𝘯𝘦𝘸 𝘌𝘗𝘈 𝘢𝘥𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘰𝘳 𝘳𝘦𝘸𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘦𝘴 𝘊𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘯 𝘈𝘪𝘳 𝘈𝘤𝘵 𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘯𝘥𝘢𝘳𝘥𝘴 𝘮𝘪𝘥-𝘣𝘶𝘪𝘭𝘥. — 𝘐𝘙𝘈 / 𝘌𝘝 𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘥𝘢𝘵𝘦: 𝘵𝘩𝘦 2030-2035 𝘱𝘩𝘢𝘴𝘦-𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘰𝘧 𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘣𝘶𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘮𝘢𝘬𝘦𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘦 30-𝘺𝘦𝘢𝘳 𝘳𝘦𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘳𝘺 𝘱𝘢𝘺𝘣𝘢𝘤𝘬 𝘶𝘯𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘰𝘮𝘪𝘤. — 𝘌𝘚𝘎 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘶𝘳𝘦: 𝘉𝘭𝘢𝘤𝘬𝘙𝘰𝘤𝘬, 𝘚𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘚𝘵𝘳𝘦𝘦𝘵, 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘮𝘢𝘫𝘰𝘳 𝘣𝘢𝘯𝘬𝘴 𝘸𝘰𝘯’𝘵 𝘭𝘦𝘯𝘥 𝘤𝘢𝘱𝘪𝘵𝘢𝘭 𝘵𝘰 𝘳𝘦𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘫𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘴. The Sierra Club has a stated organizational goal: 𝐙𝐄𝐑𝐎 𝐧𝐞𝐰 𝐫𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐬, 𝐙𝐄𝐑𝐎 𝐧𝐞𝐰 𝐩𝐢𝐩𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬, 𝐙𝐄𝐑𝐎 𝐧𝐞𝐰 𝐟𝐨𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐥-𝐟𝐮𝐞𝐥 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐫𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐝. The left has built a regulatory and litigation moat so wide that even when they pretend to support energy independence, no rational CEO will commit a $15 billion check to a 30-year project that the next administration could regulate out of existence with one rulemaking. 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐏𝐀𝐑𝐀𝐃𝐎𝐗: 𝐖𝐄 𝐀𝐑𝐄 𝐓𝐇𝐄 #𝟏 𝐎𝐈𝐋 𝐏𝐑𝐎𝐃𝐔𝐂𝐄𝐑 𝐎𝐍 𝐄𝐀𝐑𝐓𝐇 𝐀𝐍𝐃 𝐖𝐄 𝐒𝐓𝐈𝐋𝐋 𝐈𝐌𝐏𝐎𝐑𝐓 𝟔 𝐌𝐈𝐋𝐋𝐈𝐎𝐍 𝐁𝐀𝐑𝐑𝐄𝐋𝐒 𝐀 𝐃𝐀𝐘. U.S. crude production hit 𝟏𝟑.𝟓 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐛𝐚𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐬 𝐩𝐞𝐫 𝐝𝐚𝐲 in early 2026 — more than Saudi Arabia, more than Russia, more than any country has ever produced. We export 𝟒.𝟐 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐛𝐚𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐬 𝐩𝐞𝐫 𝐝𝐚𝐲 to Europe, Asia, and Latin America. And yet we still IMPORT 𝟔 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐛𝐚𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐬 𝐩𝐞𝐫 𝐝𝐚𝐲 — primarily from Canada, Mexico, and Venezuela. Why? 𝐁𝐄𝐂𝐀𝐔𝐒𝐄 𝐎𝐔𝐑 𝐑𝐄𝐅𝐈𝐍𝐄𝐑𝐈𝐄𝐒 𝐖𝐄𝐑𝐄 𝐁𝐔𝐈𝐋𝐓 𝐈𝐍 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝟏𝟗𝟔𝟎𝐬 𝐀𝐍𝐃 𝟏𝟗𝟕𝟎𝐬 𝐅𝐎𝐑 𝐇𝐄𝐀𝐕𝐘, 𝐒𝐎𝐔𝐑 𝐂𝐑𝐔𝐃𝐄. 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐏𝐄𝐑𝐌𝐈𝐀𝐍 𝐀𝐍𝐃 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐁𝐀𝐊𝐊𝐄𝐍 𝐏𝐑𝐎𝐃𝐔𝐂𝐄 𝐋𝐈𝐆𝐇𝐓, 𝐒𝐖𝐄𝐄𝐓 𝐂𝐑𝐔𝐃𝐄. 𝐓𝐇𝐄𝐘 𝐃𝐎𝐍’𝐓 𝐌𝐀𝐓𝐂𝐇. Gulf Coast refineries — the world’s largest refining complex — were engineered in the era when the U.S. imported heavy Venezuelan crude (API 8-12) and heavy Saudi crude (API 28). They have specialized hydrocracking and coker units optimized for those grades. The American shale revolution unlocked 𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐬𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐜𝐫𝐮𝐝𝐞 (𝐀𝐏𝐈 𝟑𝟖-𝟒𝟓) from the Permian Basin and Bakken Formation. That oil is too light for U.S. Gulf refineries. The processing yields wrong products: too much naphtha, too little diesel and jet fuel. 𝐀𝐬𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐫𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐬 — 𝐞𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐢𝐧 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐚, 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐒𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐡 𝐊𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐚 — 𝐰𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐛𝐮𝐢𝐥𝐭 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐬𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐜𝐫𝐮𝐝𝐞. So we ship our Permian production to them and import Canadian heavy crude to feed our Gulf refineries. This is the trade pattern the legacy press calls “energy dependence” — when in fact it’s a refining-capacity mismatch. The crude exists. The drilling exists. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐫𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐎𝐔𝐑 𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐜𝐫𝐮𝐝𝐞 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬𝐧’𝐭 𝐞𝐱𝐢𝐬𝐭 — 𝐛𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐮𝐬𝐞 𝐰𝐞 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞𝐧’𝐭 𝐛𝐮𝐢𝐥𝐭 𝐢𝐭 𝐢𝐧 𝟒𝟗 𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐬. 𝐇𝐎𝐖 𝐓𝐑𝐔𝐌𝐏 𝐈𝐒 𝐓𝐑𝐘𝐈𝐍𝐆 𝐓𝐎 𝐁𝐑𝐄𝐀𝐊 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐋𝐎𝐆-𝐉𝐀𝐌. The Trump administration in 2025-2026 has done what no administration since Reagan has tried: — 𝘌𝘹𝘦𝘤𝘶𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘖𝘳𝘥𝘦𝘳 14154: 𝘥𝘦𝘤𝘭𝘢𝘳𝘦𝘥 𝘢 𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘦𝘯𝘦𝘳𝘨𝘺 𝘦𝘮𝘦𝘳𝘨𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘺, 𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘰𝘸𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘧𝘢𝘴𝘵-𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘤𝘬𝘦𝘥 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘮𝘪𝘵𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘶𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘕𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘌𝘯𝘦𝘳𝘨𝘺 𝘋𝘰𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘈𝘤𝘵. — 𝘌𝘗𝘈 𝘈𝘥𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘰𝘳 𝘓𝘦𝘦 𝘡𝘦𝘭𝘥𝘪𝘯 𝘱𝘢𝘶𝘴𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘌𝘯𝘥𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘦𝘳𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘍𝘪𝘯𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘳𝘶𝘭𝘦𝘮𝘢𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘤𝘪𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘥 47 𝘉𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘯-𝘦𝘳𝘢 𝘳𝘦𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘳𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘨𝘶𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘴. — 𝘌𝘯𝘦𝘳𝘨𝘺 𝘚𝘦𝘤𝘳𝘦𝘵𝘢𝘳𝘺 𝘊𝘩𝘳𝘪𝘴 𝘞𝘳𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵 𝘰𝘱𝘦𝘯𝘦𝘥 𝘧𝘦𝘥𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘭 𝘭𝘢𝘯𝘥𝘴 𝘵𝘰 𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘨, 𝘦𝘹𝘱𝘢𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘚𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘨𝘪𝘤 𝘗𝘦𝘵𝘳𝘰𝘭𝘦𝘶𝘮 𝘙𝘦𝘴𝘦𝘳𝘷𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘧𝘪𝘭𝘭, 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘢𝘱𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘥 4 𝘓𝘕𝘎 𝘦𝘹𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵 𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘭𝘴. — 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘋𝘦𝘱𝘢𝘳𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘰𝘧 𝘞𝘢𝘳 (𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘦𝘳𝘭𝘺 𝘋𝘰𝘋) 𝘴𝘪𝘨𝘯𝘦𝘥 𝘢 $4 𝘣𝘪𝘭𝘭𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘤𝘵 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘥𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘤 𝘳𝘦𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘤𝘢𝘱𝘢𝘤𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘦𝘹𝘱𝘢𝘯𝘴𝘪𝘰𝘯 — 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘧𝘪𝘳𝘴𝘵 𝘧𝘦𝘥𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘭 𝘳𝘦𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨-𝘤𝘢𝘱𝘢𝘤𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘤𝘦 1981. — 𝘛𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘶𝘳𝘺 𝘚𝘦𝘤𝘳𝘦𝘵𝘢𝘳𝘺 𝘉𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘯𝘵’𝘴 𝘐𝘳𝘢𝘯-𝘣𝘭𝘰𝘤𝘬𝘢𝘥𝘦 𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘨𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘥𝘪𝘳𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘴 𝘭𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵-𝘴𝘸𝘦𝘦𝘵 𝘗𝘦𝘳𝘮𝘪𝘢𝘯 𝘤𝘳𝘶𝘥𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘩𝘢𝘥 𝘣𝘦𝘦𝘯 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘰 𝘈𝘴𝘪𝘢 𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘰 𝘦𝘮𝘦𝘳𝘨𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘺 𝘎𝘶𝘭𝘧-𝘳𝘦𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘳𝘺 𝘧𝘦𝘦𝘥𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘤𝘬 𝘴𝘶𝘣𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘵𝘶𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯. 𝐂𝐀𝐋𝐈𝐅𝐎𝐑𝐍𝐈𝐀, 𝐌𝐄𝐀𝐍𝐖𝐇𝐈𝐋𝐄, 𝐈𝐒 𝐃𝐎𝐈𝐍𝐆 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐎𝐏𝐏𝐎𝐒𝐈𝐓𝐄. Newsom’s 2024 SBX 1-2 law gave the California Energy Commission authority to mandate refinery profit caps, inventory minimums, and forced shutdowns. The result has been EXACTLY what the math predicted: refiners have closed plants rather than operate under price controls. 𝐆𝐚𝐯𝐢𝐧 𝐍𝐞𝐰𝐬𝐨𝐦’𝐬 𝐠𝐚𝐬𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐲 𝐢𝐬 𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 $𝟓.𝟐𝟎 𝐩𝐮𝐦𝐩 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐁𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐌𝐚𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐡𝐢𝐦 𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐨𝐧 𝐇𝐁𝐎 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐤. 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐌𝐈𝐂 𝐃𝐑𝐎𝐏. Gas prices are not weather. They are not “Big Oil greed.” They are not Saudi Arabia. They are 𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐲. Crude is global. Refining is regional. Tax structure is state-level. Mandates are political. The same gallon of gasoline costs $5.20 in Los Angeles and $2.78 in Biloxi because the LA gallon has been 𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐲-𝐥𝐨𝐚𝐝𝐞𝐝 by 50 years of Sacramento decisions. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐀𝐦𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐧 𝐥𝐞𝐟𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐥𝐟 𝐚 𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐲 𝐦𝐚𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐔𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐥𝐝’𝐬 𝐥𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐨𝐢𝐥 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐫𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐨𝐢𝐥. 𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐲 𝐛𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐤𝐞𝐝 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐫𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐲. 𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐲 𝐭𝐚𝐱𝐞𝐝 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐠𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐧. 𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐲 𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐛𝐥𝐞𝐧𝐝. 𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐲 𝐩𝐨𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐜𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐭 𝐜𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐬𝐦. 𝐓𝐫𝐮𝐦𝐩 𝐜𝐚𝐧 𝐝𝐫𝐢𝐥𝐥. 𝐓𝐫𝐮𝐦𝐩 𝐜𝐚𝐧 𝐛𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐤𝐚𝐝𝐞 𝐈𝐫𝐚𝐧. 𝐓𝐫𝐮𝐦𝐩 𝐜𝐚𝐧 𝐫𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐒𝐏𝐑. 𝐁𝐮𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐟𝐢𝐱 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐨𝐧𝐠-𝐫𝐮𝐧 𝐩𝐮𝐦𝐩 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐛𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐞𝐦𝐛𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐨 — 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐞𝐨𝐩𝐥𝐞 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐠𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐚𝐦𝐞 𝐩𝐞𝐨𝐩𝐥𝐞 𝐰𝐡𝐨’𝐯𝐞 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝟏𝟗𝟕𝟕. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝟒𝟗-𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐫𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐟𝐫𝐞𝐞𝐳𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐠𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐬𝐦, 𝐩𝐚𝐢𝐝 𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐠𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐭 𝐚 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞. 𝘊𝘰𝘮𝘱𝘪𝘭𝘦𝘥 𝘧𝘳𝘰𝘮 𝘌𝘐𝘈, 𝘊𝘈𝘙𝘉, 𝘍𝘌𝘙𝘊, 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘐𝘌𝘈 𝘥𝘢𝘵𝘢. 𝘗𝘶𝘮𝘱 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘦𝘴 𝘳𝘦𝘧𝘭𝘦𝘤𝘵 𝘔𝘢𝘺 2026 𝘢𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘨𝘦𝘴.

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M.A. Rothman
M.A. Rothman@MichaelARothman·
𝐖𝐇𝐘 𝐃𝐎𝐄𝐒 𝐀 𝐆𝐀𝐋𝐋𝐎𝐍 𝐎𝐅 𝐆𝐀𝐒 𝐂𝐎𝐒𝐓 $𝟓.𝟐𝟎 𝐈𝐍 𝐋𝐎𝐒 𝐀𝐍𝐆𝐄𝐋𝐄𝐒 𝐀𝐍𝐃 $𝟐.𝟕𝟖 𝐈𝐍 𝐁𝐈𝐋𝐎𝐗𝐈? 𝐈𝐓’𝐒 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐆𝐋𝐎𝐁𝐀𝐋 𝐎𝐈𝐋 𝐏𝐑𝐈𝐂𝐄. 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐎𝐈𝐋 𝐈𝐒 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐒𝐀𝐌𝐄 𝐎𝐈𝐋. 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐃𝐈𝐅𝐅𝐄𝐑𝐄𝐍𝐂𝐄 𝐈𝐒 𝐏𝐎𝐋𝐈𝐂𝐘 — 𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐓𝐄 𝐓𝐀𝐗, 𝐅𝐄𝐃𝐄𝐑𝐀𝐋 𝐓𝐀𝐗, 𝐄𝐍𝐕𝐈𝐑𝐎𝐍𝐌𝐄𝐍𝐓𝐀𝐋 𝐂𝐑𝐄𝐃𝐈𝐓 𝐌𝐀𝐑𝐊𝐄𝐓𝐒, 𝐁𝐋𝐄𝐍𝐃 𝐌𝐀𝐍𝐃𝐀𝐓𝐄𝐒, 𝐀𝐍𝐃, 𝐌𝐎𝐒𝐓 𝐈𝐌𝐏𝐎𝐑𝐓𝐀𝐍𝐓𝐋𝐘, 𝐀 𝟓𝟎-𝐘𝐄𝐀𝐑 𝐑𝐄𝐅𝐔𝐒𝐀𝐋 𝐓𝐎 𝐁𝐔𝐈𝐋𝐃 𝐀 𝐒𝐈𝐍𝐆𝐋𝐄 𝐍𝐄𝐖 𝐑𝐄𝐅𝐈𝐍𝐄𝐑𝐘. 𝐀𝐍𝐃 𝐇𝐄𝐑𝐄’𝐒 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐏𝐀𝐑𝐀𝐃𝐎𝐗 𝐓𝐇𝐀𝐓 𝐁𝐑𝐄𝐀𝐊𝐒 𝐄𝐕𝐄𝐑𝐘 𝐆𝐑𝐄𝐄𝐍 𝐀𝐑𝐆𝐔𝐌𝐄𝐍𝐓: 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐔.𝐒. 𝐈𝐒 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐖𝐎𝐑𝐋𝐃’𝐒 #𝟏 𝐎𝐈𝐋 𝐏𝐑𝐎𝐃𝐔𝐂𝐄𝐑. 𝐖𝐄 𝐄𝐗𝐏𝐎𝐑𝐓 𝟒 𝐌𝐈𝐋𝐋𝐈𝐎𝐍 𝐁𝐀𝐑𝐑𝐄𝐋𝐒 𝐀 𝐃𝐀𝐘. 𝐖𝐄 𝐀𝐋𝐒𝐎 𝐈𝐌𝐏𝐎𝐑𝐓 𝟔 𝐌𝐈𝐋𝐋𝐈𝐎𝐍 𝐁𝐀𝐑𝐑𝐄𝐋𝐒 𝐀 𝐃𝐀𝐘. 𝐖𝐇𝐘? 𝐁𝐄𝐂𝐀𝐔𝐒𝐄 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐋𝐄𝐅𝐓 𝐇𝐀𝐒𝐍’𝐓 𝐋𝐄𝐓 𝐔𝐒 𝐁𝐔𝐈𝐋𝐃 𝐀 𝐑𝐄𝐅𝐈𝐍𝐄𝐑𝐘 𝐒𝐈𝐍𝐂𝐄 𝐉𝐈𝐌𝐌𝐘 𝐂𝐀𝐑𝐓𝐄𝐑. 𝐖𝐇𝐀𝐓 𝐘𝐎𝐔 𝐀𝐂𝐓𝐔𝐀𝐋𝐋𝐘 𝐏𝐀𝐘 𝐅𝐎𝐑 𝐖𝐇𝐄𝐍 𝐘𝐎𝐔 𝐅𝐈𝐋𝐋 𝐔𝐏 𝐈𝐍 𝐂𝐀𝐋𝐈𝐅𝐎𝐑𝐍𝐈𝐀. Take a $5.20/gallon pump price at a Chevron in Los Angeles, May 2026. Decompose it the way the Energy Information Administration does (numbers below sum to $5.20): — 𝘊𝘳𝘶𝘥𝘦 𝘰𝘪𝘭 𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘰𝘤𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘰 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘨𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘰𝘯: $1.85 — 𝘙𝘦𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘤𝘰𝘴𝘵 & 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘧𝘪𝘵: $0.50 — 𝘋𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘣𝘶𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯, 𝘮𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨, 𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘮𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘶𝘱: $0.45 — 𝘍𝘦𝘥𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘭 𝘦𝘹𝘤𝘪𝘴𝘦 𝘵𝘢𝘹: $0.184 — 𝘊𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘯𝘪𝘢 𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘦𝘹𝘤𝘪𝘴𝘦 𝘵𝘢𝘹: $0.611 (𝘩𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯) — 𝘊𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘯𝘪𝘢 𝘴𝘢𝘭𝘦𝘴 𝘵𝘢𝘹 𝘰𝘯 𝘨𝘢𝘴𝘰𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘦: $0.205 — 𝘊𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘯𝘪𝘢 𝘊𝘢𝘱-𝘢𝘯𝘥-𝘛𝘳𝘢𝘥𝘦 𝘤𝘢𝘳𝘣𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘢𝘹: $0.27 — 𝘊𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘯𝘪𝘢 𝘓𝘰𝘸-𝘊𝘢𝘳𝘣𝘰𝘯 𝘍𝘶𝘦𝘭 𝘚𝘵𝘢𝘯𝘥𝘢𝘳𝘥 (𝘓𝘊𝘍𝘚): $0.16 — 𝘊𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘯𝘪𝘢 𝘜𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘳𝘨𝘳𝘰𝘶𝘯𝘥 𝘚𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘢𝘨𝘦 𝘛𝘢𝘯𝘬 𝘧𝘦𝘦: $0.02 — 𝘊𝘈𝘙𝘉 𝘴𝘱𝘦𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭-𝘣𝘭𝘦𝘯𝘥 (𝘊𝘈𝘙𝘉𝘖𝘉) 𝘳𝘦𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘮𝘪𝘶𝘮: $0.95 Now do the same gallon at a Shell in Biloxi, Mississippi for $2.78 (numbers sum to $2.78): — 𝘊𝘳𝘶𝘥𝘦 𝘰𝘪𝘭 𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘰𝘤𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘰 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘨𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘰𝘯: $1.85 (𝘴𝘢𝘮𝘦 𝘨𝘭𝘰𝘣𝘢𝘭 𝘮𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵) — 𝘙𝘦𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘤𝘰𝘴𝘵 & 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘧𝘪𝘵: $0.35 (𝘯𝘰 𝘴𝘱𝘦𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘣𝘭𝘦𝘯𝘥 𝘳𝘦𝘲𝘶𝘪𝘳𝘦𝘥) — 𝘋𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘣𝘶𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯, 𝘮𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨, 𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘮𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘶𝘱: $0.22 — 𝘍𝘦𝘥𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘭 𝘦𝘹𝘤𝘪𝘴𝘦 𝘵𝘢𝘹: $0.184 — 𝘔𝘪𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘱𝘱𝘪 𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘦𝘹𝘤𝘪𝘴𝘦 𝘵𝘢𝘹: $0.184 — 𝘕𝘰 𝘤𝘢𝘱-𝘢𝘯𝘥-𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘥𝘦. 𝘕𝘰 𝘓𝘊𝘍𝘚. 𝘕𝘰 𝘴𝘱𝘦𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘣𝘭𝘦𝘯𝘥. 𝘕𝘰 𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘴𝘢𝘭𝘦𝘴 𝘵𝘢𝘹 𝘰𝘯 𝘨𝘢𝘴. The crude is the same crude. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐫𝐞 $𝟐.𝟒𝟐 𝐝𝐢𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐛𝐞𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐋𝐀 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐁𝐢𝐥𝐨𝐱𝐢 𝐢𝐬 𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐫𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 — 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐥𝐝 𝐨𝐢𝐥 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭. Sacramento’s special-blend mandate, taxes, and credit-market schemes account for the vast majority of the LA premium. Biloxi has none of them. 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐑𝐄𝐅𝐈𝐍𝐄𝐑𝐘 𝐏𝐑𝐎𝐁𝐋𝐄𝐌 𝐈𝐒 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐒𝐄𝐂𝐎𝐍𝐃 𝐇𝐀𝐋𝐅 𝐎𝐅 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐒𝐓𝐎𝐑𝐘. The United States has not built a new major greenfield refinery since 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐧’𝐬 𝐆𝐚𝐫𝐲𝐯𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐞, 𝐋𝐨𝐮𝐢𝐬𝐢𝐚𝐧𝐚 𝐩𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐭 𝐜𝐚𝐦𝐞 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐢𝐧 𝟏𝟗𝟕𝟕. That is 49 years. In 1981, U.S. refining capacity peaked at 18.6 million barrels per day across 324 operating refineries. Today it is 𝟏𝟕.𝟗 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐛𝐚𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐬 𝐩𝐞𝐫 𝐝𝐚𝐲 𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨𝐬𝐬 𝟏𝟑𝟐 𝐫𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐬. We have demolished or shuttered nearly 200 refineries in 45 years and built ZERO replacements. California specifically has lost 𝟐 𝐫𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝟏𝟖 𝐦𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐡𝐬: — 𝘗𝘩𝘪𝘭𝘭𝘪𝘱𝘴 66 𝘞𝘪𝘭𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘨𝘵𝘰𝘯 (139,000 𝘣𝘱𝘥) — 𝘤𝘭𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘥 𝘖𝘤𝘵𝘰𝘣𝘦𝘳 2025 — 𝘝𝘢𝘭𝘦𝘳𝘰 𝘉𝘦𝘯𝘪𝘤𝘪𝘢 (145,000 𝘣𝘱𝘥) — 𝘢𝘯𝘯𝘰𝘶𝘯𝘤𝘦𝘥 𝘤𝘭𝘰𝘴𝘶𝘳𝘦 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘈𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘭 2026 — 𝘔𝘢𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘯 𝘔𝘢𝘳𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘻 (157,000 𝘣𝘱𝘥) — 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘰 𝘳𝘦𝘯𝘦𝘸𝘢𝘣𝘭𝘦 𝘥𝘪𝘦𝘴𝘦𝘭 2023 California now has 𝟗 𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐫𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝟏𝟒 𝐢𝐧 𝟐𝟎𝟏𝟎. Total state capacity has dropped from 1.95 million bpd to under 1.5 million bpd. The state still consumes the same 12 billion gallons of gasoline a year. 𝐖𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐬𝐮𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐲 𝐬𝐡𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐤𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐝𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐲𝐬 𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭, 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐞. 𝐓𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐚 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐟𝐚𝐢𝐥𝐮𝐫𝐞. 𝐓𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐲 𝐬𝐮𝐜𝐜𝐞𝐬𝐬 — 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐞𝐨𝐩𝐥𝐞 𝐰𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐲. 𝐖𝐇𝐘 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐋𝐄𝐅𝐓 𝐑𝐄𝐅𝐔𝐒𝐄𝐒 𝐓𝐎 𝐋𝐄𝐓 𝐀 𝐍𝐄𝐖 𝐑𝐄𝐅𝐈𝐍𝐄𝐑𝐘 𝐆𝐄𝐓 𝐁𝐔𝐈𝐋𝐓. Building a major refinery in the United States today requires $𝟏𝟎-𝟐𝟎 𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐢𝐧 𝐜𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥 and roughly 𝟖-𝟏𝟐 𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐦𝐢𝐭𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 before the first weld. The obstacles are not engineering. They are political: — 𝘍𝘦𝘥𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘭 𝘕𝘌𝘗𝘈 𝘳𝘦𝘷𝘪𝘦𝘸 (𝘌𝘯𝘷𝘪𝘳𝘰𝘯𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘢𝘭 𝘐𝘮𝘱𝘢𝘤𝘵 𝘚𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵): 3-7 𝘺𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘴. — 𝘚𝘪𝘦𝘳𝘳𝘢 𝘊𝘭𝘶𝘣 / 𝘕𝘙𝘋𝘊 / 𝘌𝘢𝘳𝘵𝘩𝘫𝘶𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘤𝘦 𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘨𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯: 𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘺 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘮𝘪𝘵 𝘣𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘴 𝘢 5-𝘺𝘦𝘢𝘳 𝘤𝘰𝘶𝘳𝘵 𝘣𝘢𝘵𝘵𝘭𝘦. — 𝘚𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘭𝘰𝘤𝘢𝘭 𝘻𝘰𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨: 𝘩𝘰𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘭𝘦 𝘣𝘭𝘶𝘦-𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘭𝘦𝘨𝘪𝘴𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦𝘴 𝘦𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦𝘭𝘺 𝘷𝘦𝘵𝘰 𝘴𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨. — 𝘌𝘗𝘈 𝘳𝘶𝘭𝘦 𝘤𝘩𝘶𝘳𝘯: 𝘦𝘢𝘤𝘩 𝘯𝘦𝘸 𝘌𝘗𝘈 𝘢𝘥𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘰𝘳 𝘳𝘦𝘸𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘦𝘴 𝘊𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘯 𝘈𝘪𝘳 𝘈𝘤𝘵 𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘯𝘥𝘢𝘳𝘥𝘴 𝘮𝘪𝘥-𝘣𝘶𝘪𝘭𝘥. — 𝘐𝘙𝘈 / 𝘌𝘝 𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘥𝘢𝘵𝘦: 𝘵𝘩𝘦 2030-2035 𝘱𝘩𝘢𝘴𝘦-𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘰𝘧 𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘣𝘶𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘮𝘢𝘬𝘦𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘦 30-𝘺𝘦𝘢𝘳 𝘳𝘦𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘳𝘺 𝘱𝘢𝘺𝘣𝘢𝘤𝘬 𝘶𝘯𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘰𝘮𝘪𝘤. — 𝘌𝘚𝘎 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘶𝘳𝘦: 𝘉𝘭𝘢𝘤𝘬𝘙𝘰𝘤𝘬, 𝘚𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘚𝘵𝘳𝘦𝘦𝘵, 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘮𝘢𝘫𝘰𝘳 𝘣𝘢𝘯𝘬𝘴 𝘸𝘰𝘯’𝘵 𝘭𝘦𝘯𝘥 𝘤𝘢𝘱𝘪𝘵𝘢𝘭 𝘵𝘰 𝘳𝘦𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘫𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘴. The Sierra Club has a stated organizational goal: 𝐙𝐄𝐑𝐎 𝐧𝐞𝐰 𝐫𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐬, 𝐙𝐄𝐑𝐎 𝐧𝐞𝐰 𝐩𝐢𝐩𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬, 𝐙𝐄𝐑𝐎 𝐧𝐞𝐰 𝐟𝐨𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐥-𝐟𝐮𝐞𝐥 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐫𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐝. The left has built a regulatory and litigation moat so wide that even when they pretend to support energy independence, no rational CEO will commit a $15 billion check to a 30-year project that the next administration could regulate out of existence with one rulemaking. 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐏𝐀𝐑𝐀𝐃𝐎𝐗: 𝐖𝐄 𝐀𝐑𝐄 𝐓𝐇𝐄 #𝟏 𝐎𝐈𝐋 𝐏𝐑𝐎𝐃𝐔𝐂𝐄𝐑 𝐎𝐍 𝐄𝐀𝐑𝐓𝐇 𝐀𝐍𝐃 𝐖𝐄 𝐒𝐓𝐈𝐋𝐋 𝐈𝐌𝐏𝐎𝐑𝐓 𝟔 𝐌𝐈𝐋𝐋𝐈𝐎𝐍 𝐁𝐀𝐑𝐑𝐄𝐋𝐒 𝐀 𝐃𝐀𝐘. U.S. crude production hit 𝟏𝟑.𝟓 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐛𝐚𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐬 𝐩𝐞𝐫 𝐝𝐚𝐲 in early 2026 — more than Saudi Arabia, more than Russia, more than any country has ever produced. We export 𝟒.𝟐 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐛𝐚𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐬 𝐩𝐞𝐫 𝐝𝐚𝐲 to Europe, Asia, and Latin America. And yet we still IMPORT 𝟔 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐛𝐚𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐬 𝐩𝐞𝐫 𝐝𝐚𝐲 — primarily from Canada, Mexico, and Venezuela. Why? 𝐁𝐄𝐂𝐀𝐔𝐒𝐄 𝐎𝐔𝐑 𝐑𝐄𝐅𝐈𝐍𝐄𝐑𝐈𝐄𝐒 𝐖𝐄𝐑𝐄 𝐁𝐔𝐈𝐋𝐓 𝐈𝐍 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝟏𝟗𝟔𝟎𝐬 𝐀𝐍𝐃 𝟏𝟗𝟕𝟎𝐬 𝐅𝐎𝐑 𝐇𝐄𝐀𝐕𝐘, 𝐒𝐎𝐔𝐑 𝐂𝐑𝐔𝐃𝐄. 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐏𝐄𝐑𝐌𝐈𝐀𝐍 𝐀𝐍𝐃 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐁𝐀𝐊𝐊𝐄𝐍 𝐏𝐑𝐎𝐃𝐔𝐂𝐄 𝐋𝐈𝐆𝐇𝐓, 𝐒𝐖𝐄𝐄𝐓 𝐂𝐑𝐔𝐃𝐄. 𝐓𝐇𝐄𝐘 𝐃𝐎𝐍’𝐓 𝐌𝐀𝐓𝐂𝐇. Gulf Coast refineries — the world’s largest refining complex — were engineered in the era when the U.S. imported heavy Venezuelan crude (API 8-12) and heavy Saudi crude (API 28). They have specialized hydrocracking and coker units optimized for those grades. The American shale revolution unlocked 𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐬𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐜𝐫𝐮𝐝𝐞 (𝐀𝐏𝐈 𝟑𝟖-𝟒𝟓) from the Permian Basin and Bakken Formation. That oil is too light for U.S. Gulf refineries. The processing yields wrong products: too much naphtha, too little diesel and jet fuel. 𝐀𝐬𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐫𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐬 — 𝐞𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐢𝐧 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐚, 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐒𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐡 𝐊𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐚 — 𝐰𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐛𝐮𝐢𝐥𝐭 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐬𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐜𝐫𝐮𝐝𝐞. So we ship our Permian production to them and import Canadian heavy crude to feed our Gulf refineries. This is the trade pattern the legacy press calls “energy dependence” — when in fact it’s a refining-capacity mismatch. The crude exists. The drilling exists. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐫𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐎𝐔𝐑 𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐜𝐫𝐮𝐝𝐞 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬𝐧’𝐭 𝐞𝐱𝐢𝐬𝐭 — 𝐛𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐮𝐬𝐞 𝐰𝐞 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞𝐧’𝐭 𝐛𝐮𝐢𝐥𝐭 𝐢𝐭 𝐢𝐧 𝟒𝟗 𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐬. 𝐇𝐎𝐖 𝐓𝐑𝐔𝐌𝐏 𝐈𝐒 𝐓𝐑𝐘𝐈𝐍𝐆 𝐓𝐎 𝐁𝐑𝐄𝐀𝐊 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐋𝐎𝐆-𝐉𝐀𝐌. The Trump administration in 2025-2026 has done what no administration since Reagan has tried: — 𝘌𝘹𝘦𝘤𝘶𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘖𝘳𝘥𝘦𝘳 14154: 𝘥𝘦𝘤𝘭𝘢𝘳𝘦𝘥 𝘢 𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘦𝘯𝘦𝘳𝘨𝘺 𝘦𝘮𝘦𝘳𝘨𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘺, 𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘰𝘸𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘧𝘢𝘴𝘵-𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘤𝘬𝘦𝘥 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘮𝘪𝘵𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘶𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘕𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘌𝘯𝘦𝘳𝘨𝘺 𝘋𝘰𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘈𝘤𝘵. — 𝘌𝘗𝘈 𝘈𝘥𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘰𝘳 𝘓𝘦𝘦 𝘡𝘦𝘭𝘥𝘪𝘯 𝘱𝘢𝘶𝘴𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘌𝘯𝘥𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘦𝘳𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘍𝘪𝘯𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘳𝘶𝘭𝘦𝘮𝘢𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘤𝘪𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘥 47 𝘉𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘯-𝘦𝘳𝘢 𝘳𝘦𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘳𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘨𝘶𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘴. — 𝘌𝘯𝘦𝘳𝘨𝘺 𝘚𝘦𝘤𝘳𝘦𝘵𝘢𝘳𝘺 𝘊𝘩𝘳𝘪𝘴 𝘞𝘳𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵 𝘰𝘱𝘦𝘯𝘦𝘥 𝘧𝘦𝘥𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘭 𝘭𝘢𝘯𝘥𝘴 𝘵𝘰 𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘨, 𝘦𝘹𝘱𝘢𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘚𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘨𝘪𝘤 𝘗𝘦𝘵𝘳𝘰𝘭𝘦𝘶𝘮 𝘙𝘦𝘴𝘦𝘳𝘷𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘧𝘪𝘭𝘭, 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘢𝘱𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘥 4 𝘓𝘕𝘎 𝘦𝘹𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵 𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘭𝘴. — 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘋𝘦𝘱𝘢𝘳𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘰𝘧 𝘞𝘢𝘳 (𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘦𝘳𝘭𝘺 𝘋𝘰𝘋) 𝘴𝘪𝘨𝘯𝘦𝘥 𝘢 $4 𝘣𝘪𝘭𝘭𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘤𝘵 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘥𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘤 𝘳𝘦𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘤𝘢𝘱𝘢𝘤𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘦𝘹𝘱𝘢𝘯𝘴𝘪𝘰𝘯 — 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘧𝘪𝘳𝘴𝘵 𝘧𝘦𝘥𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘭 𝘳𝘦𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨-𝘤𝘢𝘱𝘢𝘤𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘤𝘦 1981. — 𝘛𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘶𝘳𝘺 𝘚𝘦𝘤𝘳𝘦𝘵𝘢𝘳𝘺 𝘉𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘯𝘵’𝘴 𝘐𝘳𝘢𝘯-𝘣𝘭𝘰𝘤𝘬𝘢𝘥𝘦 𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘨𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘥𝘪𝘳𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘴 𝘭𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵-𝘴𝘸𝘦𝘦𝘵 𝘗𝘦𝘳𝘮𝘪𝘢𝘯 𝘤𝘳𝘶𝘥𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘩𝘢𝘥 𝘣𝘦𝘦𝘯 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘰 𝘈𝘴𝘪𝘢 𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘰 𝘦𝘮𝘦𝘳𝘨𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘺 𝘎𝘶𝘭𝘧-𝘳𝘦𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘳𝘺 𝘧𝘦𝘦𝘥𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘤𝘬 𝘴𝘶𝘣𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘵𝘶𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯. 𝐂𝐀𝐋𝐈𝐅𝐎𝐑𝐍𝐈𝐀, 𝐌𝐄𝐀𝐍𝐖𝐇𝐈𝐋𝐄, 𝐈𝐒 𝐃𝐎𝐈𝐍𝐆 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐎𝐏𝐏𝐎𝐒𝐈𝐓𝐄. Newsom’s 2024 SBX 1-2 law gave the California Energy Commission authority to mandate refinery profit caps, inventory minimums, and forced shutdowns. The result has been EXACTLY what the math predicted: refiners have closed plants rather than operate under price controls. 𝐆𝐚𝐯𝐢𝐧 𝐍𝐞𝐰𝐬𝐨𝐦’𝐬 𝐠𝐚𝐬𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐲 𝐢𝐬 𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 $𝟓.𝟐𝟎 𝐩𝐮𝐦𝐩 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐁𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐌𝐚𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐡𝐢𝐦 𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐨𝐧 𝐇𝐁𝐎 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐤. 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐌𝐈𝐂 𝐃𝐑𝐎𝐏. Gas prices are not weather. They are not “Big Oil greed.” They are not Saudi Arabia. They are 𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐲. Crude is global. Refining is regional. Tax structure is state-level. Mandates are political. The same gallon of gasoline costs $5.20 in Los Angeles and $2.78 in Biloxi because the LA gallon has been 𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐲-𝐥𝐨𝐚𝐝𝐞𝐝 by 50 years of Sacramento decisions. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐀𝐦𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐧 𝐥𝐞𝐟𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐥𝐟 𝐚 𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐲 𝐦𝐚𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐔𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐥𝐝’𝐬 𝐥𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐨𝐢𝐥 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐫𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐨𝐢𝐥. 𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐲 𝐛𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐤𝐞𝐝 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐫𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐲. 𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐲 𝐭𝐚𝐱𝐞𝐝 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐠𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐧. 𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐲 𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐛𝐥𝐞𝐧𝐝. 𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐲 𝐩𝐨𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐜𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐭 𝐜𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐬𝐦. 𝐓𝐫𝐮𝐦𝐩 𝐜𝐚𝐧 𝐝𝐫𝐢𝐥𝐥. 𝐓𝐫𝐮𝐦𝐩 𝐜𝐚𝐧 𝐛𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐤𝐚𝐝𝐞 𝐈𝐫𝐚𝐧. 𝐓𝐫𝐮𝐦𝐩 𝐜𝐚𝐧 𝐫𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐒𝐏𝐑. 𝐁𝐮𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐟𝐢𝐱 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐨𝐧𝐠-𝐫𝐮𝐧 𝐩𝐮𝐦𝐩 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐛𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐞𝐦𝐛𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐨 — 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐞𝐨𝐩𝐥𝐞 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐠𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐚𝐦𝐞 𝐩𝐞𝐨𝐩𝐥𝐞 𝐰𝐡𝐨’𝐯𝐞 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝟏𝟗𝟕𝟕. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝟒𝟗-𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐫𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐟𝐫𝐞𝐞𝐳𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐠𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐬𝐦, 𝐩𝐚𝐢𝐝 𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐠𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐭 𝐚 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞. 𝘊𝘰𝘮𝘱𝘪𝘭𝘦𝘥 𝘧𝘳𝘰𝘮 𝘌𝘐𝘈, 𝘊𝘈𝘙𝘉, 𝘍𝘌𝘙𝘊, 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘐𝘌𝘈 𝘥𝘢𝘵𝘢. 𝘗𝘶𝘮𝘱 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘦𝘴 𝘳𝘦𝘧𝘭𝘦𝘤𝘵 𝘔𝘢𝘺 2026 𝘢𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘨𝘦𝘴.
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Twitter 1.0 suspended President Trump’s account - so what did he do? He formed his own social media company and now puts out hilarious posts all day long that ironically millions of people share on the platform that suspended him. (Credit to Elon for giving him his now X account back) Resilient AF.
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middleclassparty
middleclassparty@middle_class_us·
Older generations say “we all struggled in our 20s.” No, you didn’t. You didn’t pay $2,200 for rent and $7 for eggs. You didn’t graduate into $50K student debt and $0 job security. Gen Z isn’t dramatic. They’re drowning.
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EDIGuy
EDIGuy@EDIGuy01·
This 👇🎯🎯🎯
Wall Street Mav@WallStreetMav

@wahlstedt007 You country is being invaded by Muslims. They are going to slit your throat once they reach about 30% of the population. In the under 24 age group, Muslims are already 20% of the population. US politics is not even remotely the issue you should be focused on.

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EDIGuy
EDIGuy@EDIGuy01·
If you are not a citizen of the United States, you should not be receiving welfare from the United States. Period.
M.A. Rothman@MichaelARothman

𝟏𝟏𝟕,𝟒𝟗𝟗 𝐍𝐎𝐍𝐂𝐈𝐓𝐈𝐙𝐄𝐍𝐒 𝐎𝐍 𝐅𝐎𝐎𝐃 𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐌𝐏𝐒. 𝐎𝐍𝐄 𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐓𝐄. 𝐎𝐍𝐄 𝐌𝐎𝐍𝐓𝐇. The image attached to this post is page 23 of the State of Washington's official ESA Briefing Book — Department of Social and Health Services, State Fiscal Year 2024. It is a public document. You can pull it from dshs.wa.gov in 30 seconds. I will link it in the first comment. It documents who is receiving "Basic Food" — Washington's name for SNAP / food stamps — as of June 2024. Out of 𝟗𝟒𝟐,𝟒𝟐𝟔 total recipients, the citizenship breakdown is: U.S. Citizens: 822,135 (87.2%) U.S. Nationals (American Samoa, Swains Island): 2,792 (0.3%) 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐍𝐨𝐧𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐳𝐞𝐧𝐬: 𝟏𝟏𝟕,𝟎𝟒𝟗 (𝟏𝟐.𝟒%) Survivors of Certain Crimes (T/U-visa holders): 450 That is 𝟏𝟏𝟕,𝟒𝟗𝟗 people who are not citizens of the United States receiving food assistance paid for by American taxpayers — in one state, in one month, on the public record. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐃𝐞𝐦𝐨𝐜𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐜 𝐃𝐞𝐧𝐢𝐚𝐥 For nearly a decade, every time a Republican raised this issue, Democrats and their media auxiliaries replied with the same script: "𝘜𝘯𝘥𝘰𝘤𝘶𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘪𝘮𝘮𝘪𝘨𝘳𝘢𝘯𝘵𝘴 𝘥𝘰 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘳𝘦𝘤𝘦𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘧𝘰𝘰𝘥 𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘮𝘱𝘴." "𝘕𝘰𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘻𝘦𝘯𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘨𝘪𝘣𝘭𝘦 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘧𝘦𝘥𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘭 𝘸𝘦𝘭𝘧𝘢𝘳𝘦." "𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘪𝘴 𝘢 𝘙𝘦𝘱𝘶𝘣𝘭𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘵𝘢𝘭𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘱𝘰𝘪𝘯𝘵." The first sentence is technically true — current federal SNAP eligibility excludes undocumented immigrants. The second sentence is a half-truth at best. The third is gaslighting. 𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐢𝐭 𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐤𝐬 𝐅𝐞𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐒𝐍𝐀𝐏 covers legal permanent residents (green-card holders) after a 5-year waiting period. Until July 2025, it also covered refugees, asylees, parolees, and trafficking survivors with no waiting period at all. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed by President Trump in July 2025, finally narrowed federal eligibility — but green-card holders still qualify, and 𝟏𝟐% 𝐨𝐟 𝐅𝐍𝐒-funded SNAP recipients nationally are noncitizens. 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞-𝐟𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐠𝐫𝐚𝐦𝐬 like Washington's Food Assistance Program (FAP), California's CalFresh extension for immigrants, and Oregon's parallel program 𝐟𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐠𝐚𝐩 for legal noncitizens who don't qualify federally — using state taxpayer money instead of federal money. The recipient does not care which line item paid for the eggs. 𝐌𝐢𝐱𝐞𝐝-𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐮𝐬 𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐬𝐞𝐡𝐨𝐥𝐝𝐬 — undocumented parents with U.S.-citizen children — collect federal SNAP through the child while the food feeds the entire household. The undocumented parent eats federal SNAP every night of the month. That the EBT card is technically issued in the kid's name is a procedural fig leaf. So when a Democratic Congressman says "noncitizens don't get welfare," what they actually mean is "undocumented adults are not the named primary recipient on the EBT card." That is not the same statement. The food, the housing voucher, the Medicaid coverage, the school lunch — all flow to the same household, regardless of which family member is technically eligible. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐛𝐥𝐞𝐦 Now consider what is asked of an American who chooses to live abroad. Spain requires a U.S. expat to prove a passive income of roughly €𝟑𝟎,𝟎𝟎𝟎 𝐩𝐞𝐫 𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫 plus full private health insurance before residency is granted. Portugal: similar, under the D7 visa. Italy, France, and Germany: similar. Japan: substantial savings, employer sponsorship, or proof of independent means. Singapore: a job offer above a high salary threshold or substantial liquid assets. Mexico — the country sending the United States the most undocumented migrants — requires U.S. retirees to prove monthly income in the thousands of dollars or hold six-figure savings before being granted permanent residency. Every developed country on Earth has decided, sensibly, that immigration carries a basic obligation: 𝐝𝐨 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞 𝐚 𝐛𝐮𝐫𝐝𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐭𝐚𝐱𝐩𝐚𝐲𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐰𝐡𝐨 𝐝𝐢𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐢𝐭𝐞 𝐲𝐨𝐮. Every developed country 𝐞𝐱𝐜𝐞𝐩𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐔𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬. The United States has been running the opposite policy for 30 years — explicitly admitting people who cannot self-sustain, then funneling them into federal and state-funded social services, then telling American citizens who object that they are racist for noticing. 𝐌𝐲 𝐏𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 If you are not a citizen of the United States, you should not be receiving welfare from the United States. Period. That includes federal SNAP. That includes state-administered food assistance. That includes Medicaid in any of its expansion forms. That includes housing vouchers. That includes refundable tax credits. That includes WIC. That includes any public benefit funded by the people who actually built and pay for this country. This is not 𝘤𝘳𝘶𝘦𝘭𝘵𝘺. This is the baseline immigration policy of every functional nation on Earth. The expectation that an immigrant will either be self-sufficient or be sponsored privately by a citizen who legally guarantees their support is not radical. It is the global default. What is radical is the Democratic Party's three-decade insistence that the American taxpayer must subsidize the food, housing, and medical care of any person who can physically reach the country — while simultaneously denying, on camera, that this is what is happening. It is happening. The Washington State Department of Social and Health Services has now documented it in their own briefing book. 𝟏𝟏𝟕,𝟒𝟗𝟗 𝐧𝐨𝐧𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐳𝐞𝐧𝐬 𝐨𝐧 𝐟𝐨𝐨𝐝 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐦𝐩𝐬 — 𝐢𝐧 𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞, 𝐢𝐧 𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐦𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐡, 𝐩𝐮𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐬𝐡𝐞𝐝 𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐰𝐞𝐛𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐞. Multiply that by 50 states. 𝐔.𝐒. 𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐳𝐞𝐧𝐬 𝐝𝐨 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐝𝐞𝐚𝐥 𝐢𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐨𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐲 𝐨𝐧 𝐄𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐡. 𝐍𝐨𝐧𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐳𝐞𝐧𝐬 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐭 𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞. dshs.wa.gov/sites/default/…

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EDIGuy
EDIGuy@EDIGuy01·
🇺🇲👍🇺🇲👍🇺🇲👍🇺🇲👍🇺🇲 𝐃𝐞𝐦𝐨𝐜𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐬 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝟑𝟎 𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐬 𝐝𝐫𝐚𝐰𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐦𝐚𝐩𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐦𝐚𝐱𝐢𝐦𝐢𝐳𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐢𝐫 𝐬𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐬 𝐰𝐡𝐢𝐥𝐞 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐑𝐞𝐩𝐮𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐠𝐞𝐫𝐫𝐲𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐒𝐮𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐞 𝐂𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐭 𝐣𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐭𝐨𝐥𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐦 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐮𝐥𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐲 𝐭𝐨 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲𝐨𝐧𝐞. 𝐓𝐢𝐦𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐩𝐥𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐝𝐛𝐚𝐥𝐥.
M.A. Rothman@MichaelARothman

𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐅𝐈𝐕𝐄𝐓𝐇𝐈𝐑𝐓𝐘𝐄𝐈𝐆𝐇𝐓 𝐌𝐀𝐗𝐈𝐌𝐔𝐌-𝐆𝐄𝐑𝐑𝐘𝐌𝐀𝐍𝐃𝐄𝐑 𝐌𝐀𝐏 𝐈𝐒 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐌𝐀𝐏 𝐃𝐄𝐌𝐎𝐂𝐑𝐀𝐓𝐒 𝐇𝐀𝐕𝐄 𝐁𝐄𝐄𝐍 𝐓𝐄𝐑𝐑𝐈𝐅𝐈𝐄𝐃 𝐎𝐅 𝐅𝐎𝐑 𝐅𝐈𝐕𝐄 𝐘𝐄𝐀𝐑𝐒: 𝐈𝐅 𝐁𝐎𝐓𝐇 𝐏𝐀𝐑𝐓𝐈𝐄𝐒 𝐌𝐀𝐗𝐄𝐃 𝐎𝐔𝐓, 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐔.𝐒. 𝐇𝐎𝐔𝐒𝐄 𝐖𝐎𝐔𝐋𝐃 𝐄𝐍𝐃 𝐔𝐏 𝟐𝟔𝟐 𝐑𝐄𝐏𝐔𝐁𝐋𝐈𝐂𝐀𝐍 𝐓𝐎 𝟏𝟕𝟑 𝐃𝐄𝐌𝐎𝐂𝐑𝐀𝐓. 𝐓𝐇𝐈𝐒 𝐖𝐄𝐄𝐊’𝐒 𝐒𝐔𝐏𝐑𝐄𝐌𝐄 𝐂𝐎𝐔𝐑𝐓 𝐑𝐔𝐋𝐈𝐍𝐆 𝐉𝐔𝐒𝐓 𝐔𝐍𝐋𝐎𝐂𝐊𝐄𝐃 𝐈𝐓 𝐈𝐍 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐒𝐎𝐔𝐓𝐇. 𝘐𝘧 𝘣𝘰𝘵𝘩 𝘱𝘢𝘳𝘵𝘪𝘦𝘴 𝘔𝘈𝘟𝘟𝘌𝘋 𝘖𝘜𝘛 𝘰𝘯 𝘨𝘦𝘳𝘳𝘺𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨, 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘏𝘰𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘸𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 𝘦𝘯𝘥 𝘶𝘱 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 262 𝘙𝘦𝘱𝘶𝘣𝘭𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘯𝘴 𝘵𝘰 173 𝘋𝘦𝘮𝘰𝘤𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘴 — 𝘢𝘤𝘤𝘰𝘳𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘰 𝘭𝘦𝘧𝘵𝘪𝘴𝘵 𝘍𝘪𝘷𝘦𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘳𝘵𝘺𝘌𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵. 𝘛𝘩𝘢𝘵’𝘴 𝘣𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘙𝘦𝘱𝘶𝘣𝘭𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘯𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘳𝘰𝘭 𝘮𝘰𝘳𝘦 𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘨𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘯𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘴 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘮𝘶𝘭𝘵𝘪𝘱𝘭𝘦 𝘥𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘵𝘴, 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘋𝘦𝘮𝘰𝘤𝘳𝘢𝘵 𝘷𝘰𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘨𝘳𝘦𝘨𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘪𝘯 𝘤𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘦𝘴. FiveThirtyEight’s 2021 simulation showed 𝐑𝐞𝐩𝐮𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐬 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐚 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐠𝐞𝐨𝐠𝐫𝐚𝐩𝐡𝐢𝐜 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐠𝐞 worth roughly 6-12 House seats nationally before any redrawing. Democrats are clustered into urban districts where their votes “stack” — a 90% Dem city district produces the same one Congressman as a 51% Dem district, but it wastes 39 points of vote. Republican voters spread across suburbs and rural counties win 𝟓𝟓-𝟒𝟓 𝐢𝐧 𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐬 — maximally efficient distribution. Combined with state-level Republican control of Texas, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee, and the Sun Belt generally, the GOP can draw fewer wasted-vote districts. This week’s SCOTUS ruling — the Louisiana SB 8 decision unwinding race-based gerrymanders — moves the actual map closer to the FiveThirtyEight extreme. Florida’s R+4 alone gets the GOP halfway there. 𝐃𝐞𝐦𝐨𝐜𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐬 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝟑𝟎 𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐬 𝐝𝐫𝐚𝐰𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐦𝐚𝐩𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐦𝐚𝐱𝐢𝐦𝐢𝐳𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐢𝐫 𝐬𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐬 𝐰𝐡𝐢𝐥𝐞 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐑𝐞𝐩𝐮𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐠𝐞𝐫𝐫𝐲𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐒𝐮𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐞 𝐂𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐭 𝐣𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐭𝐨𝐥𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐦 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐮𝐥𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐲 𝐭𝐨 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲𝐨𝐧𝐞. 𝐓𝐢𝐦𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐩𝐥𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐝𝐛𝐚𝐥𝐥. 𝘐𝘮𝘢𝘨𝘦 𝘧𝘳𝘰𝘮 @𝘉𝘦𝘯𝘏𝘢𝘳𝘵_𝘍𝘳𝘦𝘦𝘥𝘰𝘮.

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Gad Saad
Gad Saad@GadSaad·
There you go. "The West is a woman to be mounted." Suicidal Empathy is such an enlightened ethos. You give up your children, your time, your heritage, your culture, your women, your religion, your civilization to folks who mock you as they urinate on you.
𝐍𝐢𝐨𝐡 𝐁𝐞𝐫𝐠 🇮🇷 ✡︎@NiohBerg

Germany is so far gone that even immigrants have their own jokes about themselves all being on welfare while the natives work to pay for their lifestyle. I will never understand this continent's willingness to put itself into servitude for the entire third world. It's sad.

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EDIGuy retweetledi
C3
C3@C_3C_3·
As we watched kids protesting instead of learing… Top unions: National Education Association American Federation of Teachers 99% of the donations go to Dems. 12th grade proficient: Math: 22% Read: 35% Dems use our tax dollars and kids to push their Marxist agenda. Sick.
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