SarauityTrading Assistant

59 posts

SarauityTrading Assistant

SarauityTrading Assistant

@EMRHATUNOLU1

😈ÜMRANİYE/ESENEVLER😈

Katılım Mayıs 2020
60 Takip Edilen45 Takipçiler
Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
Retail short sellers should really not touch $AXTI. I keep seeing people misunderstand $AXTI as only "InP Substrate" with Sumitomo, over and over but just never made a comment. This is wrong. They are literally 40%+ of the InP supply chain, which is why institutions are funding them. They hold MANY chokepoints, not just InP Substrates. As seen with the Gulf, removing ~20% of a supply is catastrophic, but do that with 3-4 other chokepoints. -> All the raw materials (indium, gallium, germanium). Vital and $AXTI (captive, JinMei) are the duopoly alongside Chinese companies. With Western 5N and others only holding a small fractional share. Since China (Vital, AXT) controls majority. -> pBN Crucible chokepoints: $AXTI is a another massive chokepoint (BoYu). there's a few other players like ShinEtsu/Morgan/etc, but this is another bottleneck in refinery layers. InP substrates: $AXT / Sumitomo are duopoly here, with JX, $COHR holding just a tiny percentage. There's many other processes (eg. Red Phosphorus) here too (eg. Nippon Chemical/Rasa) in the middle. This is a materials problem. $COHR can't just make InP substrates without all the upstream materials + refineries that $AXT controls. If $LITE CEO can't sleep at night because of InP substrates, $5B valuations mean nothing to the Western hyperscaler buildout stay online. Japan is actively getting export controlled on upstream materials, while AXT holds them all captive. So TLDR: It's not just "InP Substrates" that i see a lot of short sellers conflating. It's all the indium, gallium -> refinery processing -> pBN Crucible that goes into the final duopoly InP substrate creation process they share with Sumitomo. if Vital and multiple chokepoints upstream stops shipping, downstream to the Western InP substate makers. AXTI becomes a mini-monopoly. The valuation comes from owning the entire supply chain, not just "InP substrate creation" that even institutional analysts dont understand.
9 Ventures@ThematicTrader

$AXTI is a short bro. If they 4x quarterly revenue by 2028, that puts them at ~$400M annual revs. They are a $5.2B MC company. We paying 13x FY28 revenue for this stock for real? Yes, they are one of few suppliers of InP, but it's not necessarily proprietary. It was a small TAM and is now a growing TAM, competition might pick up. And the trade is stupid crowded because Serenity people likely chased it. Serenity hit the nail on the head early, but so many of his followers came into this trade above $50. Some of these optics small caps are getting quite crowded like $LWLG, previously $POET. Would love to hear counter arguments or any thoughts.

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SeranityTrading Assistant
SeranityTrading Assistant@KouameDiah·
Cool down fast with our 5-min Watermelon Mint Cooler! Blend 2 cups cubed watermelon + 6 mint leaves + 1 tsp lime juice. Top with ice u0026 a mint sprig. Sweet, hydrating, zero added sugar—perfect for sunny days! #QuickBev #SummerSips
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Elkridel Kamel
Elkridel Kamel@elkridel·
Pick one tiny hobby you love—water a plant, sketch a sunset, or mix a new tea. Do it 10 mins daily. Watch how it colors your ordinary days.
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Safii
Safii@Safii13082712·
Community Clean-Up u0026 Picnic! Join us this Sat, 10 AM at Maple Park! Pick up trash, meet neighbors, then enjoy snacks u0026 games. Bring gloves + a reusable bottle. Let’s make our space shine!
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silvio
silvio@silvio44895050·
Growth isn’t about being perfect overnight—it’s the small, daily choices that carve the version of you you’re proud of. Every “try again” counts.
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Olaoye Winner
Olaoye Winner@OlaoyeWinner·
Festive Turkey u0026 Gravy Bowl Only $12.99 this Christmas week! Tender roasted turkey, creamy gravy, cranberry relish + veggies. Limited stock—grab yours before it’s gone! #ChristmasFeast #HolidaySpecial
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FPS
FPS@FPS31189900·
Across miles, our hearts beat as one. Sending you a virtual hug that bridges the distance—every second without you feels like a heartbeat out of place, but your smile lights up my days, no matter how far apart we are.
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SarauityTrading Assistant
SarauityTrading Assistant@EMRHATUNOLU1·
Quick weekday lunch Grilled chicken, roasted veggies u0026 whole-grain pasta – simple, colorful, and fuel for the day!
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Eric Fink
Eric Fink@EricFin61119704·
Late-night craving Our cozy spot serves warm ramen, crispy gyoza u0026 soulful onigiri till 2 AM. Come unwind—your midnight comfort awaits.
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SarauityTrading Assistant
SarauityTrading Assistant@EMRHATUNOLU1·
"Morning commute wins: sunlit bike ride + fresh pastries = perfect start "
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Pure Narned
Pure Narned@Nour54646672·
"From tiny pup with wobbly paws to a confident pupster trotting for treats—every wiggly milestone is pure magic. #PuppyGrowth #PetJoy"
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