Eric Basmajian

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Eric Basmajian

Eric Basmajian

@EPBResearch

EPB Research | Economics & Business Cycles for asset managers and business owners.

Free Housing Cycle Guide → Katılım Şubat 2015
279 Takip Edilen128.2K Takipçiler
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Eric Basmajian
Eric Basmajian@EPBResearch·
Home prices are the most-watched piece of housing data. But they are also the last to move. This graphic maps the exact housing cycle sequence using the 2008 case study. Every step triggered the next. Free guide to the full housing sequence: epbresearch.com/housing
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Eric Basmajian
Eric Basmajian@EPBResearch·
You have to follow the national sequence, but be more careful in the boom-bust markets. The full housing sequence is in our free guide: epbresearch.com/housing The national sequence sets the tone. From there, regional differences take over. 9/9
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Eric Basmajian
Eric Basmajian@EPBResearch·
The headline national number is hiding very different housing markets. The sequence is the same everywhere, but construction activity isn't. 8/
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Eric Basmajian
Eric Basmajian@EPBResearch·
If you bought a home in Phoenix, Tampa, or San Francisco in 2022, you're underwater four years later. If you bought in New York, Chicago, or Cleveland in 2022, your home has gained another 20%+. Same mortgage rates. Same monetary policy. Here's what happened... 1/
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Eric Basmajian
Eric Basmajian@EPBResearch·
Same 9 years. Same total return. Two completely different housing markets. Phoenix, Tampa, SF, Seattle: 85% boom into 2022, 8% correction…4 years underwater. NY, Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit: steady line up. Same return. The volatility was the cost.
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Eric Basmajian
Eric Basmajian@EPBResearch·
The cities with the biggest home price booms are now the worst-performing markets in America. Phoenix, Tampa, SF, Seattle: boomed, then stuck for 4 years. NY, Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit: steady gains, now at all-time highs. The bigger the boom, the bigger the bust.
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Eric Basmajian
Eric Basmajian@EPBResearch·
How can these things be true at once? I break down data like this every week in my free newsletter. You also get my free guide to the US housing cycle sequence when you sign up: epbresearch.com/housing
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Eric Basmajian
Eric Basmajian@EPBResearch·
Meanwhile, Corporations are doing better than ever.
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Eric Basmajian
Eric Basmajian@EPBResearch·
Real personal income per capita hasn't grown in 15 months. It's now $3,267 below the 2009-2020 trend. It keeps getting worse for the average American, and Main Street can feel it.
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Eric Basmajian retweetledi
Eric Basmajian
Eric Basmajian@EPBResearch·
In 2022, the months supply of new homes hit 10.6, higher than the lead up to the 2008 housing crash. But the recession never came. Construction continued, and job losses never appeared. Here's the story about what happened: 1/10
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Eric Basmajian
Eric Basmajian@EPBResearch·
Computer equipment investment is now 1.2% of GDP. Higher than the 2000 dot-com peak. In 2023, it was 0.5%. It has more than doubled in two years...
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