Mean Law Dog

22.4K posts

Mean Law Dog

Mean Law Dog

@ESGhound

meltdowns guaranteed or your money back

Katılım Temmuz 2021
1.2K Takip Edilen6.2K Takipçiler
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Mean Law Dog
Mean Law Dog@ESGhound·
I would simply comply with the law next time
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Leviathan Capital
Leviathan Capital@LeviathanCapit1·
@ESGhound I mean at these prices they’re set to make $150 million in April alone, & this war is looking unlikely to end anytime soon. Plus, there is a real energy crisis in California now, so definitely quite a lot of money still, I wouldn’t be surprised if oil hits $200 this year.
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Mean Law Dog
Mean Law Dog@ESGhound·
sorry was too busy ladder melting today to tweet
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Mean Law Dog
Mean Law Dog@ESGhound·
@LeviathanCapit1 I mean, what's your forward DCF model for this equity assuming 90 crude and 1 bln of dilution? Do you want to place a discount on a Dem president nixing the DPA authorization even if flow stops? I have 7 bux even if everything goes perfectly
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Leviathan Capital
Leviathan Capital@LeviathanCapit1·
@ESGhound Thoughts on how the CNRA lawsuit goes for $SOC? trying to see if I should sell my gains & buy later.
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Mean Law Dog
Mean Law Dog@ESGhound·
@VictoryII1 model a dcf at 90 WTI and then make a call on where it should be trading bc that math looks hairy
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Mean Law Dog
Mean Law Dog@ESGhound·
@COMETcapital it'll be overpriced when you're still bagholding it at 7 so lol and lmao
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Bruno
Bruno@COMETcapital·
@ESGhound Well i bought it 7 a couple months ago so yes it has been fun. Wish there was no war tho. Terrible tragedy.
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Bruno
Bruno@COMETcapital·
@ESGhound This along with Sec Wright announcement clears the way for imminent production
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Mean Law Dog
Mean Law Dog@ESGhound·
$SM energy and $CRC are both up like 45% ytd and trade at something like 20% 2026 FCF yield at $80-90 WTI and it's absolutely incredible how many of the dumbest idiots are spiking the ball on something that is trading at like a 3% FCF if everything goes perfectly. great trade
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Red
Red@redbuckman·
@ESGhound I will say it’s a fun market, and at least there has been more pressure to eliminate flaring and hence the negative prices
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guleid
guleid@riddle245·
@OnodaCapital I mean his top positions are all down like 25% w/ exception of Hynix so surprised not more
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Mean Law Dog
Mean Law Dog@ESGhound·
@bmpcapital hmm not sure i agree but i guess we'll see! DPA is a powerful tool but relatively untested and stuff like land egress ( ROW) is exempted. I don't expect a quick blessing regardless
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bmp
bmp@bmpcapital·
@ESGhound If I thought there was only a slight chance of restart, I would move on. I think when it restarts, the stock will be much higher. As for the valuation, restart + high oil prices warrant a higher valuation. If there is additional dilution then I will adjust my target price.
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Mean Law Dog
Mean Law Dog@ESGhound·
gonna actually lmao when $soc has doubled their share count and still hasn't pumped ouk in 3 months from now, especially since any shitco US E&P you could toss a dart at is up more YTD
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Mean Law Dog
Mean Law Dog@ESGhound·
@bmpcapital I think there are likely multiple hold-ups to starting in the next few months that sum up to a less than even chance. even if they do start, why are you a buyer here? it's back over 3bln EV
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bmp
bmp@bmpcapital·
@ESGhound So do you think Trump doesn’t enact the DPA or he enacts it but they still aren’t up and running? If that is the case, you are probably licking your chops at this great opportunity to short the stock. We are actively adding to our position.
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bmp
bmp@bmpcapital·
@ESGhound You don’t think they will be pumping oil in 3 months? Interesting. Well you are record. I will believe it will be significantly higher than the current price when they start selling oil which I expect to be soon. $soc
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