Eduard

Many investors view AI mainly as a way to make existing software faster and cheaper, but that misses the more important point: AI unlocks entirely new capabilities. Take software for dentists as an example (VMS). Switching to a cheaper product with identical functionality would not be worth the hassle. But an AI-native system that can answer calls, book appointments, chase unpaid bills, and handle routine patient communication could eliminate the need for a secretary. This could be enough to justify switching. Incumbents still have an advantage and could retain customers if they move quickly. But strong moats often breed complacency, making them slower to react. Beyond new features, AI can also reduce switching costs by making migrations easier and less error-prone. The best software engineers usually don't work on ERPs or VMS, so early versions are buggy and painful to adopt. With modern AI coding agents, initial software quality should be meaningfully higher. There was a clear step change in AI coding agents in December 2025, which likely explains the recent selloff in many software stocks. The financial impact on incumbents could take a few quarters to show up, just as it took years for Kodak to fail after the digital camera appeared. Some investors with strong judgment will identify incumbents whose moats are unlikely to be eroded and earn exceptional returns, but this seems far from straightforward. Owning data that can be used to unlock new AI functionality should be an advantage for incumbents. By mid-2025, ASML was reasonably priced, a clear AI beneficiary, and the key risks (like China developing EUV) seemed unlikely in the short to medium term. This situation feels fundamentally different.

What SaaS business do you think is actually threatened by AI? Are there any that are *clearly* going to be displaced?

@rogerfields120 Well done!

Roger Fields’ acquisition of 550 California in the summer of 2023 turned heads for a number of reasons. There was the timing, which made the sale one of the first to close in San Francisco’s postpandemic downtown. There was the $40.5 million price tag, which valued the 365,000-square-foot building at just $115 per square foot, value not seen in San Francisco for more than a decade. And there was the fact that Wells Fargo, the seller, planned to consolidate its offices elsewhere — meaning Fields would have an entirely empty building on his hands. Not anymore.

@vkhosla @elonmusk A community notes scientific town square, where people like @friedberg or @cremieuxrecueil influence government policies on things like food safety or vaccines would be great. Public discussions would create trust and consensus/collaboration should improve outcomes.

Congratulations @elonmusk on the win. Hopefully you can get Trump to do some of the things he said he'd do and not do some of the things he promised to do. Make the best of it now for the country. For eg if we can focus in FDA on better regulation instead of RFK kooky science it would be good. Attention to climate which you subscribe to would be good. Under MAGA banner I hope we don't abandon our allies and Ukraine. More to come....

@BillAckman In "From Third World to First" Lee Kuan Yew explains how they made Singapore a cohesive multicultural society, no easy feat. If a country wants to be more multicultural (Singapore was from the start), it should plan for success. Only opening borders might be wishful thinking.

An important speech which challenges the current global dogma on immigration. In sharing such a video, one cannot avoid being criticized but I share it nonetheless for it makes a powerful case against accepting an unlimited number of migrants into a host country. Immigration has contributed enormously to our country’s greatness as many have sacrificed much to come to the land of opportunity to pursue the American dream. And over that last 250 years we have attracted talented, motivated individuals and aspiring families that have helped build our country and make us great. My family has been an enormous beneficiary of being welcomed to America in the 1890s as my ancestors escaped persecution. In light of the benefits my family has received and the opportunities that we have had, I am preconditioned to want others escaping from hostile circumstances to have the same opportunities we have had. That said, an indiscriminately open border that does not intelligently screen migrants for entry is a recipe for disaster. The European migrant story as told by this Dutch politician is extremely concerning. I welcome the counterpoint arguments to the points she makes here. This is an issue that requires careful analysis and sensible policy. Unfortunately, we have neither today. The European migrant experience should be a wake up call for all of us.

@michaelxpettis Why not make income transfers to couples who have babies (to address the low fertility rate)?

In my latest piece I explain why I expect Beijing to turn to demand-side stimulus in Q2 or Q3 in the form of a one-off income transfer to the household sector, most likely to be funded by a Beijing bond deal. globalsourcepartners.com/posts/quick-th…

@paulg Singapore improved underperformance of Malay students in science and mathematics by creating community-based self help groups, which included extra tuition in the evenings (From Third World to First, pages 210-212). Inspiring story, especially in comparison to removing algebra.

There are two ways to achieve equality of outcomes: to raise up the bottom, and to push down on the top. And since raising up the bottom is so laborious, people focused on equality of outcomes will always be tempted by the seemingly easier expedient of pushing down on the top.

@cyclingalps It looks like you both already enjoyed beautiful sceneries (which are nice to explore on a bike). Happy anniversary!

@Noahpinion The Price of Time by Edward Chancellor

What are some books about you'd like to see me review?

@InternetH0F I would use some of the money to build it a nice habitat enclosed in glass (like in zoos). I would keep it home as a reminder that death can come at any moment and that time is precious.

what’s your choice?

@yishan Very insightful thread, thanks. Option 1 (written submissions) with more than 2 people with different views on the topic agreeing on a set of claims could be most conducive to truth. @CommunityNotes with an original tweet being debated, edited and agreed by the whole community.

Every science and tech person who is currently on the bandwagon calling for the vaccine doctor to go on Joe Rogan to debate RFK should be ashamed of themselves. If you care about the truth or science, that is the WORST possible thing you could be advocating for. (thread)

@mulagostarr Your tweets appear more on my « For you » feed post elon twitter. I’m grateful for that. Some activity on linked-in might be people showing « professional engagement ». Views might be a better metric on twitter as many (me included) rarely like/repost. Hopefully you don’t leave.

huh. did a little experiment. tweeted this (6100 followers) and posted on linked-in (er, 170 followers, new to it) on the same day. the result: 5 likes, 1 retweet vs 40 likes and 6 reposts. post elon twitter hates me.

@cyclingalps I cycled all these except Cleuson (I now have thicker tires for the last gravel stretch 😉). I wouldn't have discovered all these climbs so easily without your blog.

@paulg Given that definition, elegance is exposed in the book « Deep Simplicity: Bringing Order to Chaos and Complexity », recommended by Charlie Munger.

An attempt at a definition of elegance: when something compresses well in a complicated way. Or seen from the other direction, when a small number of principles combine to yield something surprisingly complicated.

@stats_feed How did you calculate Switzerland? The canton of Zürich is not the same as the city of Zürich.

Population in largest city by country: Japan 🇯🇵: 37,339,805 India 🇮🇳: 31,181,377 China 🇨🇳: 27,795,702 Brazil 🇧🇷: 22,237,472 Mexico 🇲🇽: 21,918,935 Bangladesh 🇧🇩: 21,741,090 Egypt 🇪🇬: 21,322,750 USA 🇺🇸: 18,822,570 Pakistan 🇵🇰: 16,459,472 Turkiye 🇹🇷: 15,415,197 Argentina 🇦🇷: 15,257,673 . Nigeria 🇳🇬: 14,862,111 Russia 🇷🇺: 12,593,252 France 🇫🇷: 11,078,546 Indonesia 🇮🇩: 10,915,364 UK 🇬🇧: 9,425,622 Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦: 7,387,817 Canada 🇨🇦: 6,254,571 South Africa 🇿🇦: 5,926,688 Australia 🇦🇺: 5,061,439 Italy 🇮🇹: 4,278,350 Germany 🇩🇪: 3,566,791 Austria 🇦🇹: 1,944,910 Sweden 🇸🇪: 1,656,571 Switzerland 🇨🇭: 1,407,572 Denmark 🇩🇰: 1,358,608 Finland 🇫🇮: 1,316,757 Ireland 🇮🇪: 1,241,953 Netherlands 🇳🇱: 1,157,519 Norway 🇳🇴: 1,056,180 Croatia 🇭🇷: 684,524 Estonia 🇪🇪: 448,770 South Sudan 🇸🇸: 421,292 Bosnia and Herzegovina 🇧🇦: 343,661

@yishan The book Big Debt Crisis by Ray Dalio may help better understand these things bridgewater.com/big-debt-crise…

And, earlier I posted that I thought things seemed a little funny post-SVB with the BTFP (which I think is the source of the spike in the graphs) and that we’re in the weird jam. twitter.com/yishan/status/…

I feel like something weird is happening. I’m not super sophisticated about this stuff so I’m going to show you a few graphs and you can tell me what you think. They both Federal Reserve Economic Data. Here’s the first one (MUST click and expand to see the key detail):

@Rainmaker1973 Looks fun!

Before movies had sound, playing background music was key for developing a particular mood for a certain scene. The photoplayer, an automatic mechanical orchestra, was frequently used by theaters [Joe Rinaudo, California Gold: buff.ly/401HhGQ]

@BillAckman @SRuhle Thanks for speaking your mind. I believe many people (who seldom tweet) really appreciate it. Paul Graham recommends to ignore the haters paulgraham.com/fh.html

I am an investor. I am long America. I am just trying to be helpful. It is disappointing that @SRuhle and others assume that I must have a hidden agenda where I would personally benefit. Would it be better for me to say nothing, or instead, is it more helpful for me to give my best advice to the regulators who oversee our banks? I have assumed the latter, but perhaps I am wrong. Would it better for our country when I see a disaster looming to say nothing, put on a massive short and quietly collect the profits? I care about our country, its competitive position, and the successful functioning of our capital markets and banking system. If that means I am conflicted then so be it. If you don’t think my advice or commentary is helpful or interesting, then you are free to ignore it and not follow me. Let’s see what happens on Monday if and when my advice is ignored.

Not being mentioned here... Correlated Portfolio Risk. Perhaps @BillAckman is raising the alarms for the good of markets & depositors... or maybe he's talking his own book.

@MartinVetterli @gvdgoot I also know highly talented males who have abandoned the academic route because the risk/reward looked poor. If this is representative, scientific progress might suffer. Finding other ways to improve diversity, even if it takes longer than 2032, could be worth considering. 2/2

@MartinVetterli @gvdgoot Diversity is a desirable outcome, no doubt. Trying to achieve it by setting targets on female hires might produce undesirable second order effects. I heard female postdocs wanting to pursue an academic career say « I don’t need to put as much effort as my male counterparts » 1/2

We need to talk factually about gender equality @EPFL. Since 2019, at least 40% of professor positions were offered to women, leading to more positive results. But to reach gender equality by 2032, we'd need to hire >60% women in future recruitments 1/2 epfl.ch/about/facts/di…

@garrytan Zurich had an open drug scene that was eliminated in the 90s with the introduction of the four-pillar policy (prevention, therapy, harm reduction and enforcement) bag.admin.ch/bag/en/home/st… swissinfo.ch/eng/focus-page…

SF is besieged by flagrant public drug use, cartel-driven drug markets, and retail crime driven by drugs. Entire city blocks are now controlled by drug cartels. Repairing SF means eliminating the open drug scenes. beyondchron.org/how-to-fix-bro…