Dmitiry Nkahle l Bebylon Ceptial.

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Dmitiry Nkahle l Bebylon Ceptial.

Dmitiry Nkahle l Bebylon Ceptial.

@Eldjidia10

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Katılım Temmuz 2022
64 Takip Edilen37 Takipçiler
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
In case you missed it — $SPGI — the entire company trades 26x (𝐋𝐓𝐌) Ratings & Indices operating profits.
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital® tweet media
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®@DimitryNakhla

Warren Buffett on the ratings agencies: “The ratings agencies have had and still have under current conditions an incredibly wonderful business. It takes no capital at all, the pricing power is significant.” Buffett was talking about $SPGI and $MCO. Let’s focus on $SPGI. What makes $SPGI specifically extraordinary is what sits alongside the 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬 𝐛𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 — the 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬. Together, these two segments represent perhaps the most capital-light, pricing-power-rich combination in public markets. 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬 𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐬: 𝟔𝟒.𝟑𝟒% (𝐋𝐓𝐌) 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐬: 𝟔𝟖.𝟗𝟗% (𝐋𝐓𝐌) Both above 60%. Both requiring virtually no capital to sustain. Both collecting tolls on the global financial system whether markets rise or fall — ratings on every bond issued, indices on every dollar of AUM benchmarked against the S&P. And the quality of the entire business is set to improve further. $SPGI is divesting its Mobility division — a business running at 21.62% operating margins (LTM). Removing the lowest-margin segment from the portfolio concentrates the earnings power in the two strongest segments. The business gets cleaner, higher-margin, and more focused. Now the valuation. 𝐋𝐓𝐌 𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐟𝐢𝐭 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦: 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬: $𝟑.𝟏𝟒𝐁 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐬: $𝟏.𝟑𝟑𝐁 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐛𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝: $𝟒.𝟒𝟕𝐁 — from just two segments. At today’s market cap of $119B, you are paying approximately 26x LTM operating profit for those two businesses while the overall portfolio quality is actively improving. It appears Chris Hohn, Pat Dorsey, and Li Lu — among the most rigorous fundamental investors in the world (as well as recent $SPGI insider purchases) — are seeing exactly this in their latest 13Fs. Sometimes the best ideas aren’t hidden. They’re hiding in plain sight and you just have to be a contrarian with strong conviction and patience. ___ 🎙️ Berkshire 2010 Annual Meeting | CNBC Warren Buffett Archive

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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
4 companies that returned at least 75% of Q1 2026 FCF to shareholders through buybacks — while still trading at a PEG ratio <1.75x 💵 $SPGI -99% | 1.57x $NOW -145% | 1.11x $APP -76% | 1.00x $FICO -272% | 1.00x
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital® tweet mediaDimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital® tweet mediaDimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital® tweet mediaDimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital® tweet media
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Warren Buffett on the ratings agencies: “The ratings agencies have had and still have under current conditions an incredibly wonderful business. It takes no capital at all, the pricing power is significant.” Buffett was talking about $SPGI and $MCO. Let’s focus on $SPGI. What makes $SPGI specifically extraordinary is what sits alongside the 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬 𝐛𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 — the 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬. Together, these two segments represent perhaps the most capital-light, pricing-power-rich combination in public markets. 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬 𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐬: 𝟔𝟒.𝟑𝟒% (𝐋𝐓𝐌) 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐬: 𝟔𝟖.𝟗𝟗% (𝐋𝐓𝐌) Both above 60%. Both requiring virtually no capital to sustain. Both collecting tolls on the global financial system whether markets rise or fall — ratings on every bond issued, indices on every dollar of AUM benchmarked against the S&P. And the quality of the entire business is set to improve further. $SPGI is divesting its Mobility division — a business running at 21.62% operating margins (LTM). Removing the lowest-margin segment from the portfolio concentrates the earnings power in the two strongest segments. The business gets cleaner, higher-margin, and more focused. Now the valuation. 𝐋𝐓𝐌 𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐟𝐢𝐭 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦: 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬: $𝟑.𝟏𝟒𝐁 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐬: $𝟏.𝟑𝟑𝐁 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐛𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝: $𝟒.𝟒𝟕𝐁 — from just two segments. At today’s market cap of $119B, you are paying approximately 26x LTM operating profit for those two businesses while the overall portfolio quality is actively improving. It appears Chris Hohn, Pat Dorsey, and Li Lu — among the most rigorous fundamental investors in the world (as well as recent $SPGI insider purchases) — are seeing exactly this in their latest 13Fs. Sometimes the best ideas aren’t hidden. They’re hiding in plain sight and you just have to be a contrarian with strong conviction and patience. ___ 🎙️ Berkshire 2010 Annual Meeting | CNBC Warren Buffett Archive
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Li Lu Himalaya Capital Q1 26’ 13F (Dataroma) Top 5 Holdings: $GOOGL $GOOG $PDD $BRK.B $EWBC Top Buys: $CROX $MCO $SPGI $TME Top Sales: $BAC
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital® tweet mediaDimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital® tweet media
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®@DimitryNakhla

Li Lu is widely known as an excellent investor. He is the Founder of Himalaya Capital, and one of Charlie Munger’s closest friends, mentees, and investment partners. Munger called him the “Chinese Warren Buffett.” Here’s what Li Lu did with $GOOG $GOOGL 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟎 — Initiated a position, building it to 11.4% of his fund 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟐 — Added aggressively during peak fear and uncertainty, growing it to over 22% 𝐓𝐨𝐝𝐚𝐲 (𝐚𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝟏𝟐/𝟑𝟏/𝟐𝟓 𝟏𝟑𝐅) — $GOOG represents 43% of Himalaya Capital Munger said it best: “Investing is where you find a few great companies and then sit in your ass.” ___ A couple months ago I wrote about two camps of Google investors — those who bought at 15x earnings amid maximum fear, and those who bought after the AI breakout became undeniable. Both camps can be right. Different entry points. Different sources of edge. Li Lu represents a third camp entirely — one that very few investors are capable of occupying. He was in both simultaneously. He saw $GOOG as a deeply undervalued business — recognizing the asymmetric risk/reward at a lower earnings multiple when fear was at its peak. But unlike many from that first camp who trimmed or exited as the stock recovered, Li Lu maintained his conviction even as the company’s multiple expanded as the AI narrative became undeniable — the very thesis that drove the second camp. That’s what makes this so commendable. Most investors anchor hard to one view and struggle to see beyond it. The buyer at a low earnings multiple takes profits when sentiment recovers. Li Lu didn’t anchor to that narrative. He saw the full picture from the beginning — and had the conviction to size and hold accordingly.

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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Berkshire Hathaway Q1 26’ 13F (Dataroma) Top 5 holdings: $AAPL $AXP $KO $BAC $CVX Top Buys: $GOOGL $GOOG
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A quality valuation analysis on $APP 🧘🏽‍♂️ •NTM P/E Ratio: 28x •2-Year Mean: 36x •NTM FCF Yield: 3.62% •2-Year Mean: 3.85% As you can see, $APP appears to be trading below fair value Going forward, investors can receive about 29% MORE in earnings per share & 6% LESS FCF per share 🧠*** Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $APP is a great business BALANCE SHEET✅ •Cash & Short-Term Inv: $2.76B •Long-Term Debt: $3.51B $APP has a strong balance sheet, a BBB S&P Credit Rating, & 22x FFO Interest Coverage RETURN ON CAPITAL🆗➡️✅ •2022: (1.%) •2023: 16% •2024: 44% •2025: 93% •LTM: 117% RETURN ON EQUITY🆗➡️✅ •2022: (10%) •2023: 23% •2024: 135% •2025: 207% •LTM: 176% $APP has strong returns on capital, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business REVENUES✅ •2021: $2.79B •2025: $5.48B •CAGR: 18% FREE CASH FLOW✅ •2021: $360.46M •2025: $3.97B •CAGR: 82% NORMALIZED EPS✅ •2021: $0.10 •2025: $9.84 •CAGR: 215% SHARE BUYBACKS✅ •2022 Shares Outstanding: 371.57M •LTM Shares Outstanding: 340.43M By reducing its shares outstanding 8.3%, $APP increased its EPS by 9.0% (assuming 0 growth) MARGINS✅ •LTM Gross Margins: 88.37% •LTM Operating Margins: 77.09% •LTM Net Income Margins: 64.29% ***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠 As stated above, investors can expect to receive 29% MORE in EPS & 6% less FCF per share Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $APP has to grow earnings at a 14% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation Today, analysts anticipate 2026 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be much greater than the (14%) required growth rate: 2026E: $16.17 (66% YoY) *FY Dec 2027E: $21.00 (30% YoY) 2028E: $26.59 (27% YoY) $APP has a good track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $APP ends 2028 with $26.59 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples 30x P/E: $797💵 … ~19.0% CAGR 28x P/E: $744💵 … ~15.9% CAGR 26x P/E: $691💵 … ~12.7% CAGR 24x P/E: $638💵 … ~9.3% CAGR As you can see, $APP appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >28x earnings multiple Growing its monetization of gaming, user acquisition & subscription business, $APP potential catalysts include broadening of its software platform beyond mobile games into enterprise marketing automation, and leveraging its data-rich advertising stack for AI-driven optimization — both of which could unlock multiple years of EPS expansion $APP is not just an ad-tech company. It is building the optimization infrastructure for the next generation of agentic commerce — and perhaps the market hasn’t fully priced that yet Despite this, $APP is not for the faint-hearted, as its extreme volatility can test even the most resolute shareholders’ conviction in the business $APP is a great business & appears to be a good consideration today at $502💵 ___ DISCLOSURE‼️ This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Babylon Capital® and its representatives may hold positions in the securities discussed. Any opinions expressed are as of the date of publication and subject to change without notice. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital® tweet mediaDimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital® tweet mediaDimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital® tweet mediaDimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital® tweet media
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Chris Hohn TCI Q4 2026 13F (Dataroma) Top 5 holdings: $GE $V $MCO $SPGI $CP Top Buys: $SPGI $GOOG $V Top Sales: $MSFT Foreign securities excluded $SAFR $EADS.F $AENA
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Maybe I’m crazy, but it’s starting to feel like software may actually matter again? Maybe not every software business is going to $0 after all… $IGV $MSFT $PANW $APP $NOW $PLTR
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Triple Frond Partners Q1 26’ 13F (Dataroma) Top 5 holdings: $ASML $MSFT $TDG $GOOG $AMZN Top Buys: $MA Top Sales: $LRCX
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