Electoral Calculus

'This is the 38th safest seat for Labour in the country... This shows how far Labour have fallen.' Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus discusses polling showing how close the result of the Gorton and Denton by-election is likely to be, amid a high voter turnout.

Only Labour can defeat Reform in Gorton and Denton. A vote for the Greens or any other party risks them getting in. We are a tolerant, proud, progressive city and we don’t want their divisive brand of politics here.

ASTOUNDING POLL The “mega poll” is by company PLMR with Electoral Calculus and published by the Daily Mail overnight It would see Reform win 445 MPs, Labour 73 MPs, Lib Dems 42 MPs, Your Party 13 MPs & Tories 7 MPs with a handful of greens It projects Reform would return an earth shattering majority of 258, which is more than Baldwin in 1924 Along with YouGov, it kills dead the “Kemi bounce” narrative. In fact, she loses her seat RFUK 34% CON 25% in this poll Rachel Reeves, Yvette Cooper, Bridget Phillipson and Ed Miliband would all be ousted by Reform Robert Jenrick, Suella Braverman, Rishi Sunak and IDS would all lose their seats to Reform too Shabana Mahmood and Wes Streeting would lose their seats to Your Party The poll of 7,449 British adults took place from September 10 to 18 - before the party conference season