Michael McDonald

My analysis of New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Connecticut's early voting (all states with party registration and data where I can make a same-day 2024 comparisons) open.substack.com/pub/michaelmcd…

I posted a 2026 Texas Primary turnout and early voting analysis open.substack.com/pub/michaelmcd…

Perhaps get off the CSAM platform? bbc.com/news/articles/…

A rule-of-thumb forecast that might be informative moving forward is to take the special election margin shifts over the next year and divide by half. I explain here michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/turnout-and-…

Posted VEP turnout rates for the 2025 statewide elections, with an analysis open.substack.com/pub/michaelmcd…

I did a Virginia turnout analysis open.substack.com/pub/michaelmcd…

Updated the early vote analysis for California, where registered Democrats slightly improved their position from my update last Friday. They're going into today with a +5.5 point shift from 2024 in the early vote open.substack.com/pub/michaelmcd…

Last early vote update of the day from Virginia posted open.substack.com/pub/michaelmcd…

Continuing to update early voting analyses more states as data become available. New Jersey added most recently. You'll have to follow me on the other site where an algorithm doesn't control your feed if you want real time updates open.substack.com/pub/michaelmcd…

I added the first state with updated data -- Connecticut -- to my election even early vote analysis. I'll post updates to this post throughout the data as more states' data becomes available open.substack.com/pub/michaelmcd…

Posted a Virginia early voting analysis. Short story: Virginia may be tighter than New Jersey, but there's been one week less early voting at satellite early voting centers in large Democratic localities that is confounding the data open.substack.com/pub/michaelmcd…

My analysis of CA's early voting for Prop 50. CA has the highest level of voting among states where elections are taking place. There is a net 5.3 shift in party reg towards Democrats compared to the same day in 2024, boding well for passage of Prop 50 michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/california-e…

Posted a New Mexico early vote analysis, which indicates a coming blue wave just like New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Connecticut open.substack.com/pub/michaelmcd…

My analysis of New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Connecticut's early voting (all states with party registration and data where I can make a same-day 2024 comparisons) open.substack.com/pub/michaelmcd…

If you want my early voting takes, a reminder you'll have to go to another site

We added 2022 and 2024 election data for Indiana. Thanks to @ufelectionlab (@ElectProject , VEST) !!!

I've updated my CPS turnout rate demographics and posted analysis michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/2024-voting-…

I still post here to relay my substack postings that may be of interest to those not on B lu esKy, but really, if you're still here you need to rethink being on a platform that is actively controlling the information you see techcrunch.com/2025/02/17/x-i…

With a Florida 2024 voter file with vote history released, I analyzed Florida's party registration voting patterns from 2020 to 2024 open.substack.com/pub/michaelmcd…

North Carolina posted the records of who voted in the 2024 election, which makes it possible to examine changes in turnout among voters who are registered with a political party open.substack.com/pub/michaelmcd…

“Debra OConnell, the Disney executive who directly oversees ABC News, dined with Mr. Trump’s incoming chief of staff, Susie Wiles, in Palm Beach last Monday, according to two people briefed on their interaction.” nytimes.com/2024/12/14/bus…