Electability Index

On Polymarket, Newsom is 20% to win the primary, and 13% to win the presidency. Thus, implied odds of 65%. We do various adjustments on top of that to account for volume and sample size, but it's hard to get away from those 2 numbers. The site currently shows you how you can short Gavin's odds! More to come.

Had me at Ossoff at 75%. Lost me at Newsom at 65%.

New - Electability Index - Democratic Primary Odds of winning general election, if they win primary: 🔵 Jon Ossoff: 75% 🔵 Gavin Newsom: 65% 🔵 Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 59% 🔵 Pete Buttigieg: 54% 🔵 Josh Shapiro: 53% 🔵 Kamala Harris: 47% ElectabilityIndex.com

New - Electability Index - Michigan Odds of winning general election, if they win primary: 🔵 El-Sayed: 77% 🔵 Stevens: 60% Source: @ElectabilityIdx

🗣️ Rep. Haley Stevens defends her "stick it to 'em" ad as "authentically Michigan." 🎥: @jacob_wass

@db491865 @PpollingNumbers Some more info here: electabilityindex.com/methodology

@PpollingNumbers @ElectabilityIdx It’s interesting that a progressive has a better chance of winning than the moderate. I’d love a deeper dive into what data is showing this and what specific factors are causing it. (Other than generally things are crazy right now).

New - Electability Index - Michigan Odds of winning general election, if they win primary: 🔵 El-Sayed: 77% 🔵 Stevens: 60% Source: ElectabilityIndex.com

@jonkentcomrade El-Sayed is definitely more electable, at least according to markets

If Stevens wins the primary dems lose that Michigan Senate seat.

Michigan Data for Progress poll (sponsored by Pro-Abdul PAC) 🟢 Abdul El-Sayed 54% 🟣 Haley Stevens 41%

Republicans are terrified of an Ossoff 2028 run.

@micah_erfan Markets agree

Jon Ossoff seems like an obvious 2028 front runner based on the fact that moderates think he's moderate, progressives think he's progressive, and liberals think he's liberal

@electionsjoe 💯 Markets agree

It is undeniable that El-Sayed is the more electable candidate in Michigan.

@atrupar Our markets love Ossoff's chances in 2028, if nominated

😳 this is not going well for Clayton AT ALL OSSOFF: Are you aware that Director Gabbard was present at the Fulton County raid earlier this year? CLAYTON: ... OSSOFF: What is going on here? CLAYTON: ... ... OSSOFF: Are you aware that members of this committee are probing Gabbard's potential misconduct in this matter? CLAYTON: .... Uh uh .... COTTON: Senator Ossoff your time is expired!

@Acyn Moments like this are why our markets have Jon Ossoff as the most electable Dem candidate for 2028

Ossoff: Who won the 2020 election? Clayton: I’m not going to get into that with you. Ossoff: Isn't it humiliating to be unable to answer this question, to have to indulge the president's delusions?

John Ossoff: Who won the 2020 election? Trump DNI pick: I’m not going to get into that with you. Ossoff: Isn't it humiliating to be unable to answer this question, to have to indulge the president's delusions?