EmergingMarketWatch

#Slovakia - Registered unemployment rate down by 0.08pps m/m to 5.15% at end-April - New unemployment rate indicator - available job seekers of working age in working age population, down by 0.07pps m/m to 3.96%, decreases in all eight regions - Number of newly unemployed people decreases, of those who found employment increases in line with nearing high seasonal activity - Vacancies increase in annual, monthly comparison, suggesting persistent skill mismatch - Labour market situation to improve due to gradual start of high seasonal activity; weakening economic activity amid fiscal consolidation, weak foreign demand, US tariffs, war in Iran to play opposite impact emergingmarketwatch.com/browser #EmergingMarkets

#Brazil - Flávio Bolsonaro falls 6pps to trail Lula in runoff as scandal hits – Atlas - Lula and Flávio had tied in previous poll, but Lula now leads by 7pps after Flavio's Vorcaro links revealed - Flávio's rejection rate surpasses Lula's, though 84.2% say he should remain in the race - Some 51.7% say Vorcaro tapes indicate Flávio's direct involvement in Banco Master case - Poll shows first electoral impact of scandal, though it appears unlikely to force him out of the race for now emergingmarketwatch.com/browser #EmergingMarkets

#Qatar - Inflation drops to 2.6% y/y in April - Food inflation jumps to 10.4% y/y - Inflation in most other categories slows from March - Transportation category actually shows deflation emergingmarketwatch.com/browser #EmergingMarkets

#Malaysia - CPI inflation accelerates to 1.9% y/y in April on higher fuel prices - CPI without fuel prices decelerates slightly to 1.7% y/y - Core CPI inflation remains contained at 2.0% y/y - Underlying price pressures remained muted despite oil price shock emergingmarketwatch.com/browser #EmergingMarkets

#DominicanRepublic - Goods trade deficit narrows to USD 1.3bn in April - Exports rise 20.7% y/y on back of strong mining performance - Imports increase 7.5% y/y, led by higher consumer and capital goods - Cumulative 12-month trade deficit narrows slightly to USD 15.2bn at end-April - BCRD forecasts exports to remain strong and reach USD 16.9bn by year-end emergingmarketwatch.com/browser #EmergingMarkets

#Slovenia - Opposition SDS leader Jansa to be nominated as PM-designate on May 19 - Ruling coalition agreement confirmed, document to be signed by end of this week - SDS to form next government with opposition NSi-led coalition, Logar's The Democrats - Ruling coalition to receive parliamentary support from anti-globalist, populist Resni.ca emergingmarketwatch.com/browser #EmergingMarkets

#Brazil - Govt holds GDP growth fcast for 2026 at 2.3% but raises inflation fcast to 4.5% - Govt says tight monetary policy remains main factor weighing on growth - Govt raises inflation forecast from 3.7% amid energy shock, though it is still within target tolerance margin - Govt says stronger FX, tight monetary policy, and anti-shock measures should help contain inflation - Govt says measures to mitigate energy shock support monetary policy transmission emergingmarketwatch.com/browser #EmergingMarkets

#Argentina - Overall fiscal surplus holds at 0.2% of GDP YTD in April - Fiscal performance YTD consistent with overall balance target by end-2026 - Govt likely needs to count privatization income to sustain balanced accounts - Regular revenues disappoint amid weak economy emergingmarketwatch.com/browser #EmergingMarkets

#Russia - Gross external debt falls by USD 10.5bn in Q1 2026 to USD 308.8bn - flash - Annual growth stays at 6.6% amid RUB appreciation - Russia's external debt decreases amid revaluation effects mainly emergingmarketwatch.com/browser #EmergingMarkets

#DominicanRepublic - Private-sector lending growth accelerates to 4.4% y/y in April - Private credit growth accelerates for second consecutive month in y/y terms in April - Business lending rises to 9.2% y/y from 6.8% in March - Lending to commerce and services gains pace in April, supporting private credit recovery - Mortgage lending improves modestly to 6.8% y/y after stable growth in recent months - Improved financing conditions continue to support credit growth, although Middle East tensions may still weigh on momentum emergingmarketwatch.com/browser #EmergingMarkets

#Venezuela - Govt deports Saab to US using Colombian nationality loophole - SAIME confirmed Sat. fast-track deportation of Saab - This direct handover signals a major shift toward Washington and cleanup of the old regime emergingmarketwatch.com/browser #EmergingMarkets

#Kyrgyzstan - Headline CPI inflation higher at 11.4% y/y in April - Food inflation remains high, but has not accelerated - Non-food inflation rises, data shows upward push from fuel prices - Services inflation increases as well, may grow further in near term emergingmarketwatch.com/browser #EmergingMarkets

#UnitedArabEmirates - UAE fails to persuade Saudi Arabia and Qatar to jointly attack Iran – Bloomberg - Gulf countries have different approaches to ongoing Iran war emergingmarketwatch.com/browser #EmergingMarkets

#Thailand - GDP growth accelerates to 2.8% y/y in Q1 - Reading better than consensus forecasts - In seasonally adjusted terms, GDP rose by 0.7% q/q - NESDC maintains forecast of GDP growth of 1.5-2.5% in 2026 emergingmarketwatch.com/browser #EmergingMarkets

#Georgia - Fitch affirms Georgia at BB - Outlook is stable emergingmarketwatch.com/browser #EmergingMarkets

Argentina just printed ARS 6 trillion. That’s a problem when your government has spent two years marketing itself as the most fiscally and monetarily hawkish administration in Latin American history. Economy Minister Luis Caputo announced Thursday that the government will use unrealized accounting profits from the central bank (BCRA) to justify a cash transfer of ARS 6tn to the Treasury and to cancel USD 21.7bn in non-marketable debt the BCRA holds. The BCRA reported ARS 35.8tn (around USD 25.7bn) in accounting profits for 2025, driven mainly by the peso’s depreciation and a transaction where the Treasury repurchased BCRA-held notes above book value. From those profits, ARS 18.4tn (USD 13.2bn) goes to retire intra-public sector dollar bills, and ARS 6.0tn stays as Treasury deposits. We see two very different things happening here. On the debt consolidation side, this is genuinely positive. The non-marketable bills the BCRA holds have long muddied debt sustainability analysis and let the BCRA book fictitious profits. Removing them is a real clean-up of Argentina’s tangled public sector balance sheet. The ARS 6tn transfer is a different story. Call it what it is: monetary financing. The Milei administration has consistently claimed that the only source of peso issuance is the BCRA’s unsterilized USD purchases. This move contradicts that. Our view is that the government is being pragmatic - building a cash buffer to unwind short-term ARS debt or fund FX debt payments. But the BCRA’s USD 10bn reserve accumulation program for 2026 was built around the premise that unsterilized FX purchases would remonetize the economy. Private transactional M2 has actually been falling, even with the BCRA buying dollars faster than expected. Other options were available. Bank reserve requirements remain very high, and a cut there would have added liquidity while normalizing interest rate spreads. The BCRA could also have ramped up USD purchases, boosting reserves and remonetizing at the same time. The path chosen instead channels new pesos to the Treasury rather than to the banking system, which helps sovereign debt but does nothing for credit conditions. The IMF board votes next week on Argentina’s second program review, which should unlock a USD 1bn disbursement. Fitch already upgraded Argentina to B- earlier this year. Our base case is that board approval goes through without drama. But how the Fund frames this BCRA transfer in its staff report will matter. The more pressing watch item is whether private M2 picks up in the weeks ahead. If remonetization stalls, the government’s creative accounting will look less like pragmatism and more like a liquidity patch.

#Colombia - Real GDP up 2.2% y/y; construction drags, consumption leads - Q1 GDP rises 2.2% y/y, 0.6% q/q SA; consumption adds 3.1pps, trade deficit subtracts 0.3pps - Construction output falls 5.4% y/y for a sixth consecutive quarterly decline; mining flat; gross capital formation falls 3.0% y/y - Growth driven by govt spending and consumption; sustainability uncertain as fiscal space narrows and BanRep tightens. emergingmarketwatch.com/browser #EmergingMarkets

#Panama - CPI inflation accelerates to 1.09% m/m in April - Most components increase m/m in April - Largest upward pressure comes from transport and food prices amid external energy shock emergingmarketwatch.com/browser #EmergingMarkets

#India - Unemployment rate edges up to six-month high of 5.2% in April - Rural unemployment rate rises on reduced farm activity; employment conditions in cities improve - Labour supply eases emergingmarketwatch.com/browser #EmergingMarkets

#Peru - Economic activity growth moderates to 3.2% y/y in March - Print came in above the 2.4% y/y consensus forecast - Growth driven by good performance in commerce and construction - Gas pipeline disruption in March and unfavorable weather conditions weighed on activity - Economic activity accumulates 3.53% y/y growth in Q1 emergingmarketwatch.com/browser #EmergingMarkets