rathin roy

Yes I saw that thanks I pointed this out in 2019. 7 years ago Govt banished me, establishment economists infected with Vishwaguru hubris ignored me. If only we had acted then we would have averted economic irrelevance now As a patriot being correct gives me no joy.

@DeadlyFreakAl @FCDOGovUK @ukgov Holders of valid paper visas and paper ILRs (like me) can continue to use them There is no rule change for us This has not been communicated to the travel community properly by @FCDOGovUK @UKinIndia please at least communicate this to VS AI BA 6E flying IND-UK direct

@EmergingRoy @FCDOGovUK @ukgov To be fair to UkGov, they have been notifying visa holders of these rule changes for 2 years now.

@FCDOGovUK yes, the weekend but before you all go off on skiing/ Easter hols etc can you please sort this out? Peeps will take lots of grief but not oafish stupidity from @UKGov Take responsibility. Even against the best traditions of your service. Try. Be pleasantly surprised

People keep complaining about @IndiGo6E ground handling so here’s my experience today at Khajuraho airport. Three check in counters open & manned but two refuse to accept passengers. Every one is directed to one counter manned by a trainee. As I am checking in I ask the counter supervisor why the other counters won’t accept passengers. “They are only for fast forward.” Me: I thought there was no fast forward any longer! “It’s not on the site but we do have it” Me: What do you get in fast forward? “You get priority baggage handling and priority boarding.” Me: If I had known I would have taken it. “You can still take it.” I hand over my credit card. He swipes it. As the luggage is being tagged I notice there is. no Fast Forward tag and ask about it. “ We stopped doing priority baggage handling for Fast Forward. It only gives you priority check in. “ But I had already checked in. I wouldn’t have taken it if you hadn’t told me about priority baggage handling . “I never said priority baggage handling.” Yes you did . I heard you. “Okay at least you can board any time you like.” I ask for the manager. The supervisor insists he never said anything about baggage handling. Manager: “I will not accept that my staff are lying.” But you think I am lying? He shrugs. The sum of money is small & the issue is minor. But given how much we have heard about the culture of lying in @indigo , firing one gora scapegoat may not be enough. The rot has infected the culture

@amaldhabal @CKBarwanew Actually Raghu and I overlap A key part of my solutions to resolve this involves massive increase in outputs of 2 key services - health and education. On exports, after seeing failure for 36 years, I adopt Gandhis view of western civilisation “ It would be a very good idea”

@CKBarwanew I see there are three schools of thoughts.. One is by rathin roy -- production for this section of populace.. Another is by Subramaniam -- export growth.. Another by Raghuram Rajan-- service sector .. I don't know which one holds water though

Ok but the photo they selected to go with the article is destroying me 😭😭🙏🏾🙏🏾

@EmergingRoy Absolutely pinpointed... !! Even though upper 10% goods demand is up 7-8% . The rural demand & balance 50% the demand is close to zero or demand. Very well pointed ...👌🙏

@artdecomumbai No.

An economy where 40% can't afford goods without subsidies cannot sustain broad-based private investment. The results: flat real wages, shrinking manufacturing, stalling consumption. Rebasing GDP doesn't change the arithmetic. @EmergingRoy

There is troubling long run steady state where much employment growth for the urban “working class” is contingent on demand from the top 10% - maids, cooks, drivers, peons etc. Much corporate ‘innovation’ itself targeted marketizing this labor market of “convenience or petty services.” Locked into a dangerous and structurally stagnant growth model. Chronic inadequacy of demand will bite harder

Interesting piece by @EmergingRoy India has a DEMAND problem & it is NOT the 4th largest economy But the Government of India is not taking measures to tackle these 2 intertwining concerns. Does it even know how to is the question! m.economictimes.com/opinion/et-com…

A lot of us have been warning for some time now that Indian GDP figures are overstated and unreliable and now a true pciture emerges.

@brijesh21 No clue! That was the newspapers doing

@EmergingRoy What's the context of this pic from a movie though?😀

The technocratic debate on India’s GDP numbers has important policy implications. Bottomlines: Trend growth is just 6 per cent India is not the 4th largest economy The modest numbers point to a structural demand problem My article in the Economic Times m.economictimes.com/opinion/et-com…

India's demand crisis is deeply structural, not cyclical. We've built an economy serving only the top 10%, leaving 40% priced out without subsidies, and predictably, private investment has stalled, real wages have flat-lined, and manufacturing continues its steady collapse.

"If real growth was overestimated across the last 10 yrs, then total GDP is smaller than we had thought. This means a smaller consumption, investment and demand base, and that we are not the 4th-largest economy" for fund managers' aka optimism merchants' attention

FWIW, an IAS officer acting on "ethical issues" would be transferred by his political masters 40 times in the job. He will retire anonymously; nobody would make him the chairman of the second-largest bank.

@sankiyer Picture nas nothing to do with me!

Informative piece & nicely summarised in tweet. The state of Indian economy in short. PS: Curious about the picture in the article though?

@EmergingRoy writes: India’s growth looks strong on paper, but demand tells another story - The Economic Times m.economictimes.com/opinion/et-com…

@AnkurBisen1 Valuable insight thanks

.. and the structural demand problem exist coz India’s 60% private consumption economy is built on two exports drivers - IT services exports and remittances that created multiplier effect on domestic consumption. IT sector faces existential threat in current avatar from AI and remittances are exposed to geo political risks that policy makers have ignored while stitching foreign & trade policy. In the last decade we should have diversified to food and agri and manf exports too but haven’t . Consequence is that real wages have stagnated, new jobs growth have slowed down and the consumption cycle is not growing in size but merely changing its mix. IMO @EmergingRoy

@anusharavi10 @ProsaicView

In new India, data is a joke. India’s economy is in a worse state than official GDP numbers suggest India’s growth between 2005 & 2011 was underestimated, while growth between 2012 & 2023 was overestimated, says paper co-authored by Arvind Subramanian, former Chief Economic Adviser to Modi government thesouthfirst.com/beyond-south/i…

In the online version they missed a graph posting the print version here