Emma Stock Notes

@burrytracker You didn’t need to find Nvidia. You just needed to buy Microsoft, let it compound at ~15% a year plus dividends, and get rich slowly over 25 years. Buying quality and being patient pays off.

Q1 wasn’t driven by one thing. It was a collision of shocks ↓ • Iran conflict → oil spike → energy and inflation fears • Rate-cut hopes faded → Fed flexibility looked limited • Tariff policy reset → uncertainty stayed elevated • AI disruption fears hit software → durability got repriced • Hyperscaler capex stayed high → returns came under scrutiny • US growth signals softened → sentiment weakened • Private credit stress resurfaced → liquidity risk moved back into focus At the same time: • Energy surged • Software sold off • Memory outperformed • Mag7 leadership faded • Global markets diverged That dispersion was the story. Q2 now starts with the same key questions: • Does the Iran conflict de-escalate? • Do oil prices stay elevated? • Can the Fed ease at all from here? • Do AI investments start showing real returns? • Does US growth hold up? I’ve been sharing a few extracts from the Q1 report over the past few days. Full version, free here: top-percentile.com/know/reports

@JaguarAnalytics Market selling cybersecurity like demand disappeared But $PANW fundamentals still sit in the top ~7% globally. When price and quality diverge like this, it usually doesn’t last

Cybersecurity stocks last two days: $PANW, $CRWD, $NET, $ZS. This is just stupid. I guess in the age of AI nobody needs defense against cyber attacks anymore.

@charliebilello Overall investment sentiment is also already back in the green. Funny how quickly “risk” gets forgotten.

The $VIX ended the day at 19.49, which is below the level it closed at the day before the Iran war began (19.86 on Feb 27). All is calm again...

@Mr_Derivatives These were two of the key Q1 themes. Software got hit as AI shifted the focus from growth → durability, while memory kept outperforming as the market stayed tight.

$IGV is now trading at ALL TIME LOWS relative to $SMH. And lately it has been almost a 1 to 1 inverse correlation. Who is the daring soul to play contrarian and go long IGV and short SMH? lol...

@Jake__Wujastyk Makes sense - price starting to get less comfortable here. At the same time, $MU fundamentals swing hard, and they’re now back in the top percentile across the market.

$MU #MU Broadening flag?

@HolySmokas Generational opportunity in SaaS as Jeremy suggests? The hard part is waiting for the narrative to stop getting worse.

@HolySmokas One of the key Q1 themes playing out again. Software / SaaS under pressure as AI shifts the focus from growth to durability

The UNTHINKABLE is about to happen to Stocks (Get READY!) "The time has come." Were you buying or selling today?

@StockMKTNewz Not just price - sentiment is firmly back in the green too.

The 🇺🇸 stock market just closed the day GREEN 🟢🟢🟢🟢

@SixSigmaCapital Mag7 became laggards - it was a key theme in Q1, and that shift hasn’t fully reversed. Agree on TSLA too.

Breadth is down but MAG 7 is back... These are the best businesses in the world and as recently as last week they were trading at significant discounts. Some still are at steep discounts Yes $TSLA is excluded neither a great business or at a discount

@joecarlsonshow Hard to bottom-fish when the narrative is still shifting. The software sell-off was driven by real questions around durability and AI disruption - one of the key themes in Q1.

Im not normally a technical guy, but maybe with software names it’s best to buy a little once they get above their 50 day moving average, then add more when they get above 100 and 200 day moving average. Right now any investor in software is just getting their faces ripped off. It may be best to just be patient and wait for some actual positive momentum in these stocks over trying to time the bottom.

@zerohedge Layoffs make the headlines. But underneath, Disney’s profitability drive is pushing it back into the top 10% on business quality.

No Storybook Ending: Disney Plans Another Round Of Layoffs zerohedge.com/markets/no-sto…

Energy vs Tech. US vs Europe/Asia. Brazil vs much of the rest. Same quarter - completely different outcomes.

Q1 performance was all about dispersion ↓ Not one direction. Big gaps opened up across sectors and regions.

@TrendSpider Software was one of the key themes in Q1. As AI shifted from hype → disruption risk, the market started repricing durability - and multiples followed fast. That theme still seems to be playing out.

BREAKING: Software 🩸

@cc_video_edit @KobeissiLetter Agree - headlines lag the market.

@EmmaStockNotes @KobeissiLetter Market priced the risk early, headlines just catching up now.

BREAKING: US oil prices officially rise back above $100/barrel as Iran accuses the US and Israel of violating the ceasefire agreement.

This is what sentiment-driven moves look like. Prices sold off hard, but realised volatility stayed close to normal. Pressure, not panic.

@dominach @charliebilello Fair point. A lot comes down to whether that capex turns into durable revenue and profit growth. If it does, today’s valuation may not look that stretched in hindsight.

@EmmaStockNotes @charliebilello Big tech was crazy over owned and overvalued for so long. Coming back to reality. If they stop all the crazy CAPEX and develop some kind of sustainable AI strategy, avoiding disruption, they may be good buys some day.

2026 YTD: -International Stocks > US Stocks -Small & Mid Caps > Large Caps -Value Stocks > Growth Stocks -Mag 7 names all lagging The Reversal of Everything...

@dividendology $100 in $MCD (since 1980, dividends reinvested) is about $1.9M! Compounding is boring… until it suddenly isn’t.

How much $100 invested into each of these assets in 1970 would have grown to by 2023: I think we have a clear winner.

@HolySmokas Good reflection of how sentiment drives markets. Here’s a longer-term view - sentiment spikes tend to be short-lived, even around major events.

The Market Just BLEW UP "I'm doing this TODAY!