@swiftmacro @zerohedge Have you looked at energy futures curves today?
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Energy
58 posts
@zerohedge If the Strait were truly closed, oil wouldn’t be the only thing moving. Tanker rates, insurance spreads, freight costs, and energy futures curves would explode first. Those transmission channels usually signal the severity before equities react.
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That assumes Iran won't allow Chinese tankers through, which are the largest client of Gulf products (not to mention only client of Iran)
Eric Nuttall@ericnuttall
If the Strait remains closed we are losing ~450MM Bbls per month. That exceeds the entirety of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. This is not some small supply interruption...this is historic in magnitude and consequence.
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@DiveBomb321 Grind it up during the week, gap down on the weekend. Rinse and repeat
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#natgas #dbnatgaswx 00z HDD delta to 12z:
AIFS-EN: -11.1
EPS: -11.9
GEFS: -6.1
Overnight we are back to the flop zone and there is a distinctly obviously bearish tail.
DiveBombTrading@DiveBomb321
Sat 12z HDD delta to Fri 12z: AIFS-EN: +6.4 EPS: -3.7 GEFS: -0.8 Wait a sec. After the 00z flop we are getting some flip on the 12z. It's not game over yet. Two more runs to go. 🤷♂️🎲🎲
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#natgas #dbchartng getting a big bounce. Certainly wasnt from overnight weather, but it's easy to argue the sell off was overdone.
DiveBombTrading@DiveBomb321
#natgas #dbchartng Or even better/worse... Gap down to 3.67. Whoa. 😂
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@DiveBomb321 Definitely not .45c move worthy. One could argue based off the 24 hour deltas we should be down
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#natgas - OK, only the insiders at Freeport, and no algo or human trader, really knows when Freeport goes back to 100% online. So I will take any further drops from here as purely speculative shorting.
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I was wrong, the fundamentals are there. Someone just sees them way earlier than you do
Energy@Energy1618
#natgas the last 5 days, an algo has kicked in right at 5 am and made an aggressive 10+ cent run. Fundamentals apparently don't matter, just whichever way the algo decides to go for the day
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