Energy Aspects

After yesterday’s Iranian missile strikes damaged QatarEnergy’s South Trains 4 and 6, which have 12.7 Mtpa of combined capacity, Energy Aspects revised down its Qatari LNG export forecast and warned of further escalation risk. Based on satellite imagery and market analysis, we estimate repairs could take at least 18 months, although the timeline could be longer, adding a material new constraint to global LNG supply. We have raised our TTF forecast to €49/MWh for bal-2026 and €43/MWh for 2027 as the market prices in a more prolonged supply shock. In our view, yesterday’s rally was justified, and risks remain skewed to the upside, with the growing likelihood that the Strait of Hormuz disruption lasts into April. EA subscribers received this analysis first, as part of our comprehensive views on oil and gas, geopolitics and price risk. Our coverage of the Middle East conflict is ongoing, with rapid analysis of the impact across energy markets. Start a trial to access that coverage before it moves the market: ow.ly/FyZI50YwPp5 #EnergyAspects #LNG #MiddleEast

Eid Mubarak from all of us at Energy Aspects. Wishing peace, happiness and prosperity to all those celebrating Eid al-Fitr.

A 30-day US waiver allowing the purchase of Russia-origin oil has widened the buyer pool beyond India and extended the loading and delivery window by a week. Energy Aspects Cargo Tracking data shows the market reacting quickly: - Floating storage of Russian crude held for more than one week has fallen by 8.5 mb w/w. - 11 diverted vessels are currently heading to India. - Among them are Sirius 1 and Aqua Live — two US-sanctioned Aframaxes. If they discharge, they would be the first US-listed tankers to deliver Russian crude into India since February 2025. Why clients use Energy Aspects cargo tracking: - Detect diversions early. - Monitor sanctioned vessel activity. - Track shifts in crude trade flows. - Turn vessel movements into actionable market insight. In fast-moving markets, seeing the flow shift early matters. Request your trial: ow.ly/xqTJ50YwoSc #EnergyAspects #CargoTracking #Crude

Will you be attending the @neudatalab London Data Summit on 26 March? Energy Aspects is proud to sponsor this year's event, bringing together over 600 professionals from across the alternative data community. If you’re a trader, quant, portfolio manager or investment manager looking for more objective, differentiated market insight, we’d love to connect. Discover how we combine deep market context, macro understanding and trading relevance with our advanced data and analytics capabilities, to generate deeper, objective insight across energy and commodity markets. From identifying market shifts earlier to strengthening investment and trading decisions, EA’s data-driven intelligence is helping market participants turn complex signals into actionable insight. We’re looking forward to connecting with you and discussing how alternative data is reshaping decision-making in global markets. See you next week! #EnergyAspects #Neudata #AlternativeData

"We think TTF front-month price could rise all the way to €60" Energy Aspects Global Head of Gas, Livia Gallarati, joined @business yesterday morning to discuss the impact of the Middle East conflict on natural gas in Europe and Asia, including: - Recent gas price rallies - The status of LNG facilities and potential time to resume operations. - How Asia is managing gas shortages, with fuel switching and redirected flows. Watch the interview here: ow.ly/m44l50YwblG #EnergyAspects #NaturalGas #LNG

The latest EA Forum is out now on Iran, volatility and opportunities in undervalued assets. @ea_amrita, Founder and Director of Market Intelligence at Energy Aspects, recently sat down with Jeff Currie, Chief Strategy Officer of Energy Pathways at Carlyle and Non-executive Director at Energy Aspects. In this episode, they discuss: - Disruptions and market denial in the immediate aftermath of the US/Israeli strikes on Iran. - How the ongoing conflict affects debates over energy dominance and leverage as part of US–China relations. - Iran’s asymmetric threats to the US and allies, and how the crisis is hitting credit markets and private equity. - Why the current oil market impact is Covid-19 in reverse. - And what Jeff is cautious on owning in the coming weeks and months, and what’s an easy buy. Watch the full episode here: ow.ly/bOch50YvQ75 EA Forum brings together leading voices in global commodities and macroeconomics, offering unique perspectives and in-depth analysis from both EA and external experts. #EnergyAspects #EAForum #EnergyMarkets

Gold pressured by yields and the dollar, while structural demand holds. Last week on EA Live Quant, we highlighted how rising yields and a stronger dollar are pressuring gold, even as structural demand remains firm. Energy-driven inflation has pushed two-year treasury yields higher as markets reprice the Fed’s policy path. Rising front-end yields have increasingly influenced dollar moves since the Iran strikes began, with the 60-day rolling correlation between daily changes in the dollar and two-year yields climbing to 0.18 (11 March) from near zero (26 February). Gold therefore, faces dual macro headwinds from higher yields raising the opportunity cost of holding the yellow metal, while a stronger dollar increases prices in foreign currency terms. With Iran’s new supreme leader signalling that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, energy prices will remain elevated, keeping these macro headwinds firmly in place. Bullish flows returned on Tuesday (10 March) as the dollar experienced a brief pullback, with traders adding 5.9k lots of long positions alongside $570 million ETF inflows, highlighting that structural demand for gold remains intact. If energy markets stabilise, inflation risk premia and the dollar will ease, offering support to gold prices. EA Live is a continuous source of breaking market analysis. Find out more about how our Quant Analytics service can help you stay ahead of the curve and manage your risk. ow.ly/wmsA50YvrAx #EnergyAspects #Gold #Metals #QuantAnalytics

At the Energy Aspects Conference 2026, Majida Mourad (Founder, M2M Advisors) moderated a wide-ranging policy panel featuring James P. Danly (Deputy Secretary, U.S. Department of Energy), Rep. Darrell Issa (Representative, U.S. Congress), and Rep. Randy Weber (Representative, U.S. Congress). Key insights included: - The U.S. grid’s resilience during Winter Storm Fern, thanks to proactive planning and coordination. - Nuclear energy’s growing role, with a focus on bringing retired plants back online and scaling Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). - The U.S. as a global energy stabiliser, with agentic AI and infrastructure revival driving future competitiveness. - The need for policy certainty and legislative guardrails to support long-term investment in LNG and pipelines. - “Energy dominance” depends on both traditional baseload power and next-generation nuclear and AI-driven efficiencies. Energy Aspects provides clients with expert analysis and real-time intelligence on evolving policy and regulatory shifts. Read the full insight and discover how policy is shaping the future of energy: ow.ly/RLnf50Yvf7L #EAConference2026 #EnergyAspects #EnergyPolicy

As geopolitical risk continues to drive volatility across oil markets, timely intelligence matters more than ever. Attacks on infrastructure feed directly into price action, and verifying the extent of potential damage is critical. Our forecasts incorporate OilX flaring, @Kayrros inventory data and satellite imagery, along with expert market intelligence. Last week, EA Live tracked Brent’s move higher, noting the limited options to offset mounting global supply losses. We estimate Middle Eastern production is currently running 9–10 mb/d below early-March levels. Satellite imagery confirms lower activity at Saudi Arabia’s Safaniya, Marjan and Manifa oilfields. This matches our soundings that Arab Medium– and Arab Heavy–producing fields have been wound back in favour of Arab Light volumes to maximise Yanbu crude exports. Request a trial and explore how Energy Aspects delivers the analysis and foresight you need, every step of the way. ow.ly/fEiJ50YuVHv #EnergyAspects #MiddleEast #EarthObservation

Energy Aspects and @Kayrros are joining forces to create a new standard in energy market intelligence. By combining Energy Aspects’ deep market expertise and timely analysis with Kayrros’ world-leading satellite and geospatial data capabilities, clients will gain faster, more accurate insights when they matter most. In times of heightened geopolitical uncertainty, rapid and unbiased earth observation data is critical for understanding market impacts, as Energy Aspects recently demonstrated in its coverage of the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Read the full press release: ow.ly/Jyq750YuFMH #EnergyAspects #EnergyMarkets #EarthObservation

The shift in oil flows is becoming increasingly visible, with an armada of tankers expected to load in the Red Sea as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively impassable. Saudi Arabia is already redirecting flows westward. Its East-West pipeline, linking the eastern oil fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, allows crude exports to bypass Hormuz entirely and maintain shipments despite the disruption. - Arabian Gulf loadings have stalled, as tanker owners avoid entering the Gulf due to the risk of vessels being trapped if the strait closes further. - Red Sea loadings are accelerating sharply, with an estimated 66 VLCCs, 11 Suezmaxes and 10 Aframaxes expected to load in Yanbu for March. The Yanbu terminal is equipped with four dedicated berths that can handle crude loads for VLCCs. Operational capacity enables Yanbu port to turn around a maximum of four VLCCs in a day, although other operational constraints might determine the actual loading rates and turnaround times. #EnergyAspects #CargoTracking #MiddleEast

We’re excited to announce that Energy Aspects has agreed to acquire @Kayrros, a global leader in energy analytics and satellite data solutions. This acquisition, subject to regulatory approval, will expand our data and analytics capabilities and accelerate innovation for our clients across energy and financial markets. By combining our deep market expertise with Kayrros’ world-class geospatial data and machine learning, we’ll deliver a new generation of actionable insights, especially valuable in today’s rapidly changing landscape. Read the full press release: ow.ly/lXA950YsNc6 #EnergyAspects #EnergyMarkets #EarthObservation

Watch @ea_amrita, Founder and Director of Market Intelligence at Energy Aspects, answer UK MPs' questions on the impact of the Middle East conflict on oil and gas markets, at yesterday's Treasury Committee meeting: ow.ly/iRi550YsueI Earlier this week, Amrita also joined @CNN and @SquawkCNBC to discuss: - Long-term implications of the conflict - Middle East production shut-ins - Effect of oil reserve releases on market shortages Watch Amrita's CNBC interview here: ow.ly/g8R550YsueG #EnergyAspects #MiddleEast #OOTT

The Arab Gulf is under the microscope. Can you see every barrel? The Israel-US-Iran conflict has put Arab Gulf oil storage and cargo flows at the centre of every trading desk conversation. Yet most market participants are working with incomplete data. OilX changes that. Our Arab Gulf Storages Monitor gives you: - Satellite-verified storage data across dozens of terminals in Iran, Iraq, Kuwait & the UAE, measured at least weekly. - Daily month-end stock estimates, including crude, refined, commercial, SPR, on-land, at sea. - Live floating storage tracking, current and potential crude builds, updated in near real-time via Cargo Tracking. This is not news. This is data. We're offering a complimentary 2-week trial of OilX + Cargo Tracking. No pitch. No obligation. Just the clearest view of Arab Gulf barrels on the market. Activate your trial here: ow.ly/8cEe50Ysobp #EnergyAspects #CargoTracking #OOTT

There is no return to normal on oil any time soon. Published yesterday in the @FT, @ea_amrita, Founder and Director of Market Intelligence at Energy Aspects, explains that even if the conflict in the Middle East ends soon, a return to the old status quo is unlikely. The US-Iran conflict has caused an oil market supply shock, with over 10 million barrels per day of crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz disrupted. This unprecedented event has triggered extreme price swings and forced governments worldwide to take emergency action. Amrita explores why security of supply is now a top priority, especially for Asian economies that rely on the region for nearly half their crude imports. The article highlights the urgent need for new strategies to manage risk and ensure stability in a rapidly changing market. Read the full analysis to understand how governments and market participants are reshaping their strategies in response to these unprecedented supply risks: ow.ly/5w2l50YsgYO #EnergyAspects #MiddleEast #Oil

The US-Iran conflict has sent shockwaves through energy markets. In the latest EA Market Sparks, we break down the critical developments shaping key markets: - Global energy prices surge as US and Israeli strikes on Iran disrupt flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with crude, refined products, and LNG all severely constrained. - Spot jet fuel and LNG prices hit record highs amid mounting uncertainty, while crude markets see extreme levels of volatility. - The risk of further military escalation remains elevated, with potential for prolonged supply disruptions as Asian and European buyers scramble for alternatives. - European gas and LNG markets price in a month-long loss of Qatari exports, forcing Asian buyers to draw down inventories, switch to coal, or ration gas. Stay ahead of the curve. Read the latest EA Market Sparks and subscribe for expert insights on global energy markets. ow.ly/ZIp150YrXgk #EnergyAspects #EnergyCommodities #EAMarketSparks

“High oil prices can actually make the U.S. pivot and come up with a narrower set of goals to achieve,” says @ea_amrita as the Iran War continues. cnb.cx/4s26kYv

Recent flaring data shows that production shut-ins are already underway, with Kuwait and the UAE cutting output as storage fills and Iraq forced offline by rapid stock builds. The pace of recovery will differ by country. Iraq faces extended delays due to technical challenges and staff withdrawals, while Kuwait and the UAE are positioned to restart production more quickly. Our analysis highlights the elevated risk of further cuts, with flaring activity in Kuwait and Iraq down by 70% week-on-week, while UAE flaring is down by 21%. In times of geopolitical uncertainty, such as the unfolding conflict in the Middle East, only unbiased geospatial data and advanced Earth observation offers the clarity markets demand. Energy Aspects delivers the real-time intelligence you need to stay ahead, no matter how fast the landscape evolves. Claim your 2-week trial here – ow.ly/Lm6p50YrIwG #EnergyAspects #Iran #OOTT

Insights from the session “What happened, what’s next for energy?” moderated by @ea_amrita at the Energy Aspects Conference 2026 in late February, were captured before the recent conflict involving Iran and the wider Middle East, which has since significantly impacted global energy markets. Our analysis will continue to evolve as events unfold. Dr. Amrita Sen welcomed industry leaders Patrick Pouyanné (Chairman and CEO, TotalEnergies), Lorenzo Simonelli (Chairman and CEO, Baker Hughes), and former U.S. Secretary of Energy Dan Brouillette (Co-Chair, Torridon Group) for a candid discussion on the evolving global energy landscape. Key insights included: - Oil and gas remain central to the energy system, but demand patterns are shifting. - Gas is positioned as a “destination fuel” for decades, particularly in emerging Asia. - Policy stability and pragmatic investment are essential for progress. - Geopolitics and technology, from agentic AI to LNG, are reshaping the sector. - Increased capital, infrastructure, and talent are needed to meet rising demand and ensure energy security. Read the full insight and discover what’s next for the industry: ow.ly/iPBt50YrbPN #EAConference2026 #EnergyAspects #EnergyPolicy