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We receive a lot of questions about using NBA projections to bet on player props.
While useful, we do NOT suggest blindly betting projection edges for player props.
Since we create both player projections and release bet recommendations, we are often asked why we have not released a bet to our subscribers when our projection shows an edge vs. the line.
There are 4 primary reasons we may not release a bet even though the projection rates favorable:
1. The bet rates well, but there is not enough liquidity to be considered "widely available".
For us to release an official bet, the line we like has to be available on FanDuel, or available on DraftKings, Caesars, and PropBuilder.
In these instances, if you can identify a line that rates well on DraftKings or Caesars but isn't available on FanDuel, you may have found a good bet to target.
2. The bet rates well, but there are outstanding injury question marks that may impact our projections.
We recommend perusing the official NBA Injury Report while shopping for bets. You do not want to bet projection edges on teams that have Questionable tags. The market generally prices these situations well, and we do not recommend leaning into these situations unless you have both significant NBA betting knowledge and expertise assessing injury situations.
If you aren't sure if this is you, it probably isn't you.
3. The bet rates well, but our team has some qualitative concern about the projection fragility.
In other words, we are making educated guesses on certain factors that drive the projection, and we believe we could just as easily be wrong as we are right about those factors. There is likely still some edge, but it's not high enough to meet our threshold for releasing a bet. Oftentimes, these will be dropped in Discord as "unofficial bets" (right before game time) in the nba-props channel.
4. The bet rates well, but we have exposure to this bet in other releases we've already taken and we're choosing to manage total risk to the situation.
For example, we show a projection edge on the over for the starting point guard's points prop and an under on the reserve point guard's points prop. These two players' performances are tied together and we are only choosing to risk one unit on the situation.
In cases where you've missed out on the official bet, you may want to look for other projection edges on that team, as there may be other correlated situations we chose not to make official.
When you come across 1. and 4. it is highly likely that we would believe these are good bets. But in instance 2. and 3., it is likely the bet is either not great or even bad, as the market is pricing in certain factors better than we can.
As a general rule, you need to be very careful betting projection edges, and we do NOT recommend doing this without considering both the above. We release a free injury show on our YouTube channel during the week to go over many of that days situations.
Our NBA player props official release record for the past three years ($100 units):
2021-22: 751-495: +$20,348; 14.0% ROI
2022-23: 700-455, +$18,770; 13.9% ROI
2023-24: 683-432, +$19,473; 14.73% ROI
2024-2025: 25-12, +$1,117; 25.87% ROI
For more information on our player props product, please see this FAQ:
establishtherun.com/nba-etr-player…
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