Han Lin

$BKSY: 🛰️ Earth Observation is finally coming into focus. AI-driven demand and the conflict in Iran have highlighted the importance of this market. Real world applications have finally materialized causing an inflection in demand where BlackSky's backlog increased to $345M and Planet's backlog increased to $900M. $PL business momentum has prompted me to revisit and take a spec position in $BKSY which I used to own in previously. Enterprise Value: $BKSY: $1B $PL: $12B BlackSky has demonstrated strong financial performance, however its results have been inconsistent as 97% of its customers are governments and militaries, which leads to results being very lumpy. 2026 should be a stronger year as additional Gen-3 satellites are deployed. BlackSky primarily serves government/military customers with 49% of its revenue coming from US Government / Agencies / Military, 48% from international Governments and the remaining 3% from commercial customers. Here's how $BKSY compares to $PL financially: $BKSY vs. $PL Revenue & YoY Growth: 2026E: $133M 24% | $380M 23% 2027E: $170M 28% | $482M 27% 2028E: $215M 26% | $594M 23% 2029E: $264M 23% | $727M 23% $BKSY vs. $PL Gross Margins & EBITDA: 2026E: 68% $11M | 51% $13M 2027E: 71% $40M | 55% $58M 2028E: 73% $60M | 63% $135M 2029E: 73% $85M | 67% $189M $BKSY vs. $PL EBITDA Valuation Multiples 2026E: 92.9x | 920x 2027E: 25.5x | 201x 2028E: 17x | 87x $BKSY trades massive EBITDA multiple discount to $PL while having comparable topline growth and much better margins. That said, Planet does have the upside of AI Data Center potential in partnership with Google and it has reached a higher level of financial scale. However given all the interest in enabling military applications for space, $BKSY wins here with its massive exposure to US and Foreign (US friendly) governments. BlackSky should close the valuation gap with Planet in the coming months as it completes its Gen-3 constellation and signs more government contracts. Short interest is 7.8M shares or 26% of the float. I estimate half of short interest is from convertible arb hedging from the $185M convert raised in July 2025. The rest are fundamental shorts 🔥 Finally, IMHO I think $RKLB should just buy $BKSY if they're looking to expand into attractive space vertical that leverages their capabilities = Earth Observation. $RKLB already launches $BKSY sats and it would be a highly accretive transaction🤷‍♂️

$VELO - 100% agree 🔥 This $500M shelf isn’t dilution - it’s strategic rocket fuel to scale capacity and capture the exploding structural demand in defense, hypersonics, munitions replenishment, and thermal management that VELO literally can’t keep up with right now. CEO with ~49% ownership, debt converted at a massive premium, and comp tied directly to market cap? That’s elite skin-in-the-game alignment. The old VELO is dead. This is a defense-first hypergrowth turnaround with real bookings, massive tailwinds from the $1.5T defense budget push, and the going-concern overhang finally getting removed. Institutions have been sitting on the sidelines - once that risk disappears, the rerating begins. VELO is still insanely undervalued with durable, accelerating demand.