NeilT

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NeilT

NeilT

@Exogynous

Old geek with an interest in many things. Hard rule #1 Block me to stop me replying and you get blocked. 100%, no exceptions.

Wherever I am at the time Katılım Mayıs 2022
195 Takip Edilen1.1K Takipçiler
NeilT
NeilT@Exogynous·
@teslayoda He owns 42% of SpaceX and that is going to be worth more than Tesla just on IPO. But what the dilution will be I don't know. When his latest Tesla package vests, his Tesla shares will make him something over $2Tn. It's going to be wild.
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NeilT
NeilT@Exogynous·
He was not "named". He turned up in correspondence and the vast majority of it was "don't call me I'll call you". The one time he was looking for a decent party he had his new wife with him. This is the problem with "named in the list". The list includes "No way get lost" as well as Clinton, Gates and others.
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NeilT
NeilT@Exogynous·
@BellikOzan Perhaps. It's 2PW of heat to deal with or "something else".. I'm on something else.
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NeilT
NeilT@Exogynous·
@PTrubey @SawyerMerritt He got shafted to the tune of$22bn on the stock by an activist judge. Your $140m is literally nothing in comparison to what he was taken for.
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Phil Trubey
Phil Trubey@PTrubey·
BS. Elon hasn’t be “cleared”, he willfully violated the disclosure law enriching himself about $140M over what he would have paid had he disclosed on time. The SEC $1.5M fine is a slap on the wrist. There’s no sugar coating this … this is as bad as Steve Jobs backdating stock option grants back in the day.
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Sawyer Merritt
Sawyer Merritt@SawyerMerritt·
The SEC has settled its lawsuit against Elon Musk over delayed disclosure of his 2022 Twitter stake. Elon will pay $1.5M without admitting wrongdoing. Elon's lawyer Alex Spiro: “Mr. Musk has now been cleared of all issues related to the late filing of forms in the Twitter acquisition, as we said from the outset he would be. A trust vehicle has agreed to a small fine for being late on one filing.” The SEC had originally sought $200 million.
Sawyer Merritt tweet mediaSawyer Merritt tweet media
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NeilT
NeilT@Exogynous·
Yes but you can't separate the two when talking about the impact of 1PW of power generation on the heat of the planet. BTW, from my design the chip temp is not all that important. Plenty of heat going around in a solar thermal system to boost DC cooling fluid temps. Not so much with solar PV. This plays to its strengths. The power from the ORC is used to cool the DC refrigerant and it is not electricity, it is direct power to direct cooling. That's the idea. I deliberately did not go down the rabbit hole of multi layer closed systems but the potential is there. Once you get well over 50% there are options.
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Ozan Bellik
Ozan Bellik@BellikOzan·
@Exogynous DC regen is a separate part of this, independent of the 50% efficiency I'd mentioned, and the Carnot efficiency for that is dependent on chip temp / ambient.
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NeilT
NeilT@Exogynous·
No that's what I'm saying. The same design of expander consumes the DC heat coming from the DC cooling system. So a second expander. It close loops the DC cooling on the expander and forces the heat out by forcing it to do work and returning the refrigerant at below ambient temp. It removes around 65%+ of the DC heat. So the primary expander removes 50% of the heat normally lost to he power generation. The secondary expander removes around 65% of the heat from the DC. In total, according to Grok, I remove around 60% of the overall heat budget which would normally have to be dealt with. For a 1TW system (2TW with DC heat), it would remove 1.2TW of heat which would otherwise have to be dealt with. If humanity ever got to the stage of capturing 1.3PW of solar thermal energy to generate 1PW of electricity (my expander), what I just described would require around 0.8PW of heat to be removed. Desert sky seems good. However with a 50% turbine and no DC closed loop cooling, that would be 2PW of heat to be dealt with. Crispy Earth time. That's all I'm saying.
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Ozan Bellik
Ozan Bellik@BellikOzan·
@Exogynous Yes, it's 50% more power with 50% less waste heat at the site, which is great. But the context is total heat globally, including where it's consumed. So same on that front.
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NeilT
NeilT@Exogynous·
Well that depends on how fast they get a mass driver up on the Moon. How rapidly Starlink V3 satellites start to be launched to ramp the Starlink network, how soon SpaceX gets to 100 Starship launches a year, which is, if I remember correctly, 3,000 times the capability of that many F9 launches for Starlink. Then there is the first ships to Mars, these will be unmanned, by humans at least. Terafab anyone? SpaceX is collaborating with Intel and Tesla on that. Then there will be AI satellites in SSO orbit, X will launch X Money and start services on the platform such as selling goods which can be bought by X Money. xAI will launch Grok 4.5 and then Grok 5, agents, coding. Then there is Macrohard. Most people are totally undervaluing that. $7.5tn? If they do all of that and more, it could be lowball.
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Fibonacci 🥷
Fibonacci 🥷@Fibonacci69·
SpaceX at $7.5 trillion from $1.7 trillion in a matter of weeks Is this real or just hype? The SpaceX IPO conversation is starting to feel unreal. Just weeks ago, people were talking about a ~$1.7 trillion valuation. Now it’s being pushed toward $7.5 trillion. That’s a 4x+ jump, almost overnight. To put that into perspective, that’s a huge slice of the entire United States economy. So what changed? Not the business overnight. Not the numbers. The story changed. Mars. Colonization. The future of humanity. And people are buying into that vision. It’s powerful, but it also creates something else: Speculation. And this reminds me of J.L. Collins’ beer analogy. When you pour a beer, the foam rises quickly, But it doesn't last. Right now, there’s a lot of foam building around SpaceX. That doesn’t take away from how impressive the company is. It just means the price may be running ahead of reality. And eventually, the foam settles. The only question is: What’s left when it does?
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NeilT
NeilT@Exogynous·
Yes you do have to go hotter. Even at 75% I chose 1673K (1,300C), ( I think I mistyped that before), as the limit. Even though what I designed can probably go hotter it also needs to be able to be built by mere humans. The more extreme you go, supercritical helium, etc, your sealing and heat tolerance is so extreme you are back in the same place as anyone who wants a gas turbine today, or essentially screwed unless you have a firm order. There are things you can do such as using DC refrigerant to cool the waste heat on the power generation and boost the ORC. But I didn't go there either. I felt that 50% more power with only 25% of the original heat to deal with, it was way better than turbines. It was my thinking anyway. The deeper you go into really trying to close the loop the more challenges you get. I went for the big one. 50% more power and a significant reduction in heat output. Plus removing the DC heat as work.
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Ozan Bellik
Ozan Bellik@BellikOzan·
Carnot is an upperbound. If you want to do 75% globally, first of all, that's a *minimum* hot side temperature of ~1100K for the theoretical higher efficiency heat to useful energy conversion you can do, no matter what cycle you run. Second, 75% is 50% more than 50%. You can't recover the remaining 25% without going hotter.
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NeilT
NeilT@Exogynous·
@xdNiBoR It is. Not before time but then why make more if you have not fully confirmed that what you have really works. SpaceX takes a lot of flack for their hardware rich development program but at least they will know beyond a doubt that Starship will do what they want it to do.
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NeilT
NeilT@Exogynous·
@peterrhague It's not just Mickeysoft that does this. But, yes, it is not good. Solid security suite to head off this kind of activity needed.
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NeilT
NeilT@Exogynous·
We have, I've sharpened this up a lot recently. I had to understand why I could not explain what I was doing. The key differences are overexpansion without impact like stalling, very low parasitics, low RPM operation at high power density, near zero parasitic idle, fast power ramp in milliseconds so long as the heat reservoir is there. 75% is extreme, but then so is the 2,400k you were talking about. Only in the extremes does carnot donate enough recoverable power. I went the other way. Trying to avoid the very high heat extremes by forcing more work out of the fluid with overexpansion which, as a trade off, deals with the heat issue. Using the same expander on ORC effectively deals with the DC heat issue. It's an interesting diversion.
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Ozan Bellik
Ozan Bellik@BellikOzan·
@Exogynous I think we've talked about the thermodynamics of this idea?
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NeilT
NeilT@Exogynous·
Yeah I had one removed from me at an airport. I no longer tell them what the new one is when they can't open it, I just tell them it's a bottle opener. Fortunately for me I have 550kg force in each leg and some training to use it. Just have to stay alive long enough for me to use it in the right way. I spend time thinking about that. 50yds from an apartment I was staying in at North London two guys were shot. One shot dead and the other seriously injured. A few days later at a tube station I often arrived at, that the trains dumped passengers when taking a train out of service, a guy was stabbed to death. The University of London was constantly bombarding staff and students with emails. "Do not keep your phone out on the pavement". "Be vigilant, avoid trouble if you see it". Bloody dangerous city London. But with 8.5m people who live there and about 1.5m who travel in and out daily, you really are SOL if you get hit. Unless you go looking for it. But the risk is not super low.
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Cynical Publius
Cynical Publius@CynicalPublius·
Is it possible to arrive in Europe as a tourist and acquire something in Europe that can reliably be used for self defense purposes, without getting arrested?
Benonwine@benonwine

A knifeman stabbed a woman to death in front of terrified bystanders in Barcelona in what authorities believe was a random street killing. A woman has been killed in a shocking knife attack in the streets of Barcelona in full view of horrified bystanders. The stabbing happened at around 11am in Esplugues de Llobregat, just a short distance from the Camp Nou stadium. Witnesses watched as the attacker struck in broad daylight. The victim, described locally as a young woman, suffered multiple stab wounds to the throat, chest and stomach. She died at the scene. A 50-year-old man who tried to intervene was also injured, sustaining wounds to his arm. His injuries are not believed to be life-threatening. Police say they are still working to determine whether the attacker knew the victim. So far, there is no evidence of any relationship between them. Investigators are focusing on the possibility that this was a random attack. The suspect — described as wearing jeans, a hoodie and carrying a large black rucksack was arrested just hours later in the nearby Les Corts area. Images of the alleged attacker holding the weapon have since circulated, adding to the shock surrounding the incident. As the investigation continues, one thing is already clear: A normal morning turned into a scene of terror and a life has been taken in the most brutal way.

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NeilT
NeilT@Exogynous·
No the heat output of the 75% cycle is 190k on the generation side, the DC side comes out to net neutral with sub ambient return when the refrigerant has been treated to the same expansion. The goal of the DC side is not to make power, although that is possible, it is to remove the heat the power already generated in the DC. For this calculation primary generation heat is 1,573k in, and 190k out. Naturally exotics required. What needs to be dealt with is the unrecoverable portion. But at 25% that's one hell of a lot less than you were dealing with and with that amount of extra power you can get much closer with closed loop. The engineering for 1TW is gargantuan, true, but way simpler than turbines and single crystal grown blades.
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Ozan Bellik
Ozan Bellik@BellikOzan·
@Exogynous Buys another 50% increase in power for the same heat output
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NeilT
NeilT@Exogynous·
If they are thinking about it, no, if they have solid plans and anything other than personal aspirations, no. Only if there is an information trail that they have considered this as a company do they need to notify the buyers. If it just happens to be a possible preference of the CEO, with no backing data, then I would suggest not. However anyone having seen the merger of X and xAI, then the merger of xAI and SpaceX, has to be aware that a merger with Tesla is a significant possibility. Especially with Optimus being a key critical enabler for the Moon and Mars and any manufacturing and LEO operations for that fact, plus their collaboration with Terafab; has to be aware that at some point a merger is going to be beneficial to both companies. To assume otherwise would be to be delinquent in your research before investing.
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Warren Redlich - Chasing Dreams 🇺🇸
Exactly zero of the leaks from the SpaceX "confidential" IPO document indicate anything about a merger with Tesla or an acquisition. It's not happening.
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NeilT
NeilT@Exogynous·
You would be literally mind boggled by the rules. No putting bottles in the bottle bank from 10pm Saturday till about 6am on Monday. Can't disturb all that peace you know... After a late party on a Saturday night, a friend of mine just said "it's done". I mean if you get caught doing more than twice the speed limit in your car you can get sent for psychological evaluation. Because if you do that there is clearly something wrong with you mentally..... And if there is something wrong with you mentally you can't have a license to drive.
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NeilT
NeilT@Exogynous·
It does. In datacentre situations just about everything you put in power wise comes out as heat. But the heat is low grade and hard to use. Hence why I stated it needs to be something which can use that heat and return it as cool without the need for specific cooling apparatus. That's the idea. Expand it and over expand it, get out what energy you can, push back coolant. You don't even need to generate anything with the energy you extract, you can simply use it for the cooling phase. Although it is more efficient to use the energy you get back. The same thing works for space too. Except there you would boost your unrecoverable portion heat with work to reduce your radiator area.
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Robotbeat🗽 ➐
Robotbeat🗽 ➐@Robotbeat·
Worth pointing out that much above 10TW average electrical power, it doesn’t matter your energy source because if you do it terrestrially, the waste heat alone will cause major local and global environmental issues. Nuclear, fusion, whathaveyou.
rip van wankle@vt__snowflake

Carpeting the Sahara would, paper napkin math, create ~1,500 terawatts of solar, which is around 150x the entirety of existing electricity generation on the planet from all sources. You are getting repeated pushback because you’re a moron who doesn’t understand scale

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NeilT
NeilT@Exogynous·
1. Large heavy object round the head from behind (obviously you are not the target). 2. Run for it. But can you get away and if you can't you are then trying to fight out of breath. 3. You can't get away and you have to fight. Block, Akido, hit to break everything you hit, don't be fussy about his life, yours is the most important. We're not allowed guns. Otherwise 2 dead centre and a third eyehole.
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