Outspoken. 🇬🇧

Further analysis of the Manchester vote. **The Right-Wing Failure to Consolidate. The Available Pool -  When Restore Britain (46,289 votes) and the Conservatives (41,021 votes) were eliminated, they left behind a massive pool of 87,310 right-leaning first-preference votes.  The Reality - Reform UK only managed to pick up 45,250 second-preference votes in total.  The Takeaway - Nearly half of the people who voted Tory or Restore completely refused to pick Reform as their backup choice. They either chose not to use their second vote at all or actively gave it to Labour.  **The Left-Wing Consolidation.  The Available Pool -On the left, the Green Party (64,968 votes) and the Liberal Democrats (14,702 votes) were eliminated, leaving behind 79,670 progressive first-preference votes.  The Reality - Labour successfully captured 58,076 second-preference votes.  The Takeaway - Progressive voters were highly disciplined. The vast majority of Green and Lib Dem voters dutifully lined up behind Labour as their second choice to block Reform from winning. **Why This Matters. This will shut down the idea that Reform is the natural home for all right-of-centre voters.  When given the explicit, legal opportunity to transfer their vote to Reform to beat Labour, tens of thousands of Conservative and Restore voters deliberately chose not to do so.  This proves that the right-wing electorate is deeply fragmented, and Reform does not possess the unifying appeal required to build a winning electoral coalition.

JUST IN: Spanish PM Sánchez calls the mass Ceuta crossings an “attack” on Spain’s territorial integrity.

🚨🇪🇸🇲🇦😱Des affrontements ÉCLATENT DÉSORMAIS DANS LES RUES entre citoyens espagnols et les envahisseurs marocains. DES DIZAINES DE MILLIERS de migrants musulmans sont maintenant descendus sur une ville de seulement 83 000 habitants. Chaos complet et total.