Kevin O'Neill

4.1K posts

Kevin O'Neill

@ExtraHalfPoint

The final adopter of Sports Betting Twitter, circa mid-September, 2022.

Katılım Eylül 2022

125 Takip Edilen4K Takipçiler

Sabitlenmiş Tweet

Kevin O'Neill@ExtraHalfPoint·2 May

Why is the Kentucky Derby a great betting proposition even as Kentucky horse racing lets CAWs feast on their most loyal bettors? And what would 17.5% takeout correspond to on a basketball side or total? Find out in our latest amateurish whiteboard video.

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Kevin O'Neill@ExtraHalfPoint·11h

Exacta fairly static.

Marshall Gramm@marshallgramm

@derby1592 @RubenFanDuelTV @EJXD2 @PreaknessStakes Napoleon Solo. Exacta didn’t change much. Decent money late in the WPS but still paid slightly longer than predicted by the double. The Preakness always seems to have to most nutty win pool.

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Kevin O'Neill@ExtraHalfPoint·1d

bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/a… CAWs crush the Preakness winner & exacta last second. So what else is new? Here’s 2018 coverage from The BloodHorse referencing CAW late odds shifts being a problem as far back as 2003. Not new. Rather, a slow drain on horseplayers for 2 decades +.

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Kevin O'Neill retweetledi

Marshall Gramm@marshallgramm·17h

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Kevin O'Neill@ExtraHalfPoint·21h

@Pullthepocket Very frequently Pull, but interesting that Jean Valjean got pounded late from 5-2 to even money in the race before the Preakness and ran out of the money. The Equibase chart labels the horse’s on-track appearance as “washy” equibase.com/static/chart/p…

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Pullthepocket@Pullthepocket·21h

I think it's important to understand the horses who are bet late tend to be horses that are less obvious. It's the holy grail of winners in the game, so the ones with less shine will be hit and it's surprising to casual players. When in fact, they were just overlooked by them.

Kevin O'Neill@ExtraHalfPoint

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Kevin O'Neill@ExtraHalfPoint·21h

I’ve been tweeting about CAWs but I’m a sports bettor. As a horseplayer I’m merely a casual participant on big race days and summer Saturdays. If you’re interested in the important CAW issue follow @MarshallGramm and @derby1592 for authoritative, data-oriented info on the topic.

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Tony Zhou@ZhouTony·6d

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Kevin O'Neill@ExtraHalfPoint·1d

@JerryCalo11 Seemed like a couple of overbet favorites with a bunch of overbet little-chancers with some value in the middle.

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JerryCalo@JerryCalo11·1d

@ExtraHalfPoint It was def underlaid for the win odds but to me that’s more of a function of the win pool being skewed by all the weird Preakness public money.

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Kevin O'Neill retweetledi

Jeff Sherman@golfodds·1d

PGA Championship updated A Smalley 9/2 J Rahm 11/2 L Aberg 6/1 R McIlroy 7/1 X Schauffele 12/1 S Scheffler 16/1 N Taylor, A Rai 18/1 P Reed 22/1 M McNealy 25/1 M Schmid 30/1 M W Lee, C Gotterup, J Rose 40/1 H Matsuyama 45/1 J Niemann 55/1 K Reitan 60/1 B Griffin, B Koepka 65/1

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Kevin O'Neill@ExtraHalfPoint·1d

@JerryCalo11 I must have seen the exacta probables wrong then, Jerry. Didn’t write them down.

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JerryCalo@JerryCalo11·1d

@ExtraHalfPoint They didn’t crush the exacta last minute the probable was always around 50 for a buck

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Kevin O'Neill retweetledi

Jomboy Media@JomboyMedia·1d

Bobby Witt Jr. deked Ivan Herrera to save a run

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Kevin O'Neill@ExtraHalfPoint·1d

20 guys within 2 of the lead.

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Kevin O'Neill@ExtraHalfPoint·1d

Chips in to make the cut yesterday and is 5 under through 7 today. Conditions will be more challenging for later tee times.

Golf Channel@GolfChannel

CLUTCH CHIP-IN EAGLE to make the cut for Michael Kim! 🔥🦅 @Mike_kim714 📺 ESPN2 | @PGAChampionship

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Kevin O'Neill@ExtraHalfPoint·1d

The current count of 365 D1 college hoops programs will probably be down to 330 or so in five years. Things are going to get tough for small private colleges and a lot of the “why are they D1?” schools will be in survival mode and drop to D2 or D3.

Jim Bianco@biancoresearch

Fertility peaked in 2007. 2026 is 18 years later, when this "baby bust" starts heading to college. Only the beginning, and ALL schools should prepare.

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Kevin O'Neill@ExtraHalfPoint·2d

The remaining 82 players are separated by 7 shots. Wild weekend ahead?

Jeff Sherman@golfodds

PGA Championship updated S Scheffler 15/4 Cam Young 9/1 M McNealy 10/1 L Aberg 12/1 C Gotterup, M W Lee, A Smalley 14/1 H Matsuyama, J Rahm 16/1 S W Kim, J Thomas 25/1 R McIlroy, P Cantlay 30/1 D Puig, H English 35/1 M Greyserman 40/1 S Jaeger, K Kitayama, A Potgieter 50/1

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Kevin O'Neill@ExtraHalfPoint·2d

Not a soccer guy (I understand the attraction, I just don't have the time) but love the big scores made by analytically & gambling-minded soccer franchise purchasers. msn.com/en-us/sports/s…

Jackie (clevfan)@jackiehaz

How a Pro Gambler and a Secret Database Turned a 150-1 Long Shot Into a Soccer Miracle - WSJ wsj.com/sports/soccer/…

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Kevin O'Neill@ExtraHalfPoint·2d

C’mon, Pat. These imperial ADs can’t build their org-chart fiefdoms if non-revenue sports are sucking up too much of the administrative staff salary pool.

Pat Forde@ByPatForde

The Olympic sports cutdown cycle: eliminate a sport after "extensive research;" see if donors care enough to raise money; if so, bring it back under the clear understanding they aren't valued anyway. Really a fun experience for the athletes and coaches involved.

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Kevin O'Neill@ExtraHalfPoint·2d

Maybe adjust this for schedule and you’ve got a reasonable power rating.

Jared Smith@jaredsmithbets

The average game spread for all 32 NFL teams in 2026 per Draftkings Highest: Rams -4.5 Lowest: Cardinals +8.6

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Kevin O'Neill retweetledi

Bill Barnwell@billbarnwell·4d

New column: The Rams dramatically changed their offense in midseason last year by going to three tight ends. That worked for them but didn't really work for everyone else. Now, with an offseason to prep, will the league have more success out of 13 in 2026? espn.com/nfl/story/_/id…

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Lary Garson@thoreval·3d

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Ralph Michaels@CalSportsLV·3d

Since at least 2007, the @Cubs are the first team to have two separate 10-game win streaks in a season! Longest streak since 2007? The then-Cleveland Indians won 22 straight in 2017! I do realize that in those 22 wins, they did have two 10-game win streaks, but not separate streaks.

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Keşfet

@derby1592 @RubenFanDuelTV @EJXD2 @PreaknessStakes @Pullthepocket @marshallgramm @JerryCalo11 @elonmusk