Dr Ambarish Toshniwal

#memorystocks #AI Feeling, SOSO ! Sorrow Of Selling Out Sold memory and semiconductor etf, midway the rally, due to war uncertainty. Now, they are parabolic.

Give a deeper thought Momentum Value Low volatility Cannot stay together for long duration, especially when these indices are rebalanced every 6 months. My personal view is, Momentum and value are two seperate themes Quality is a non tangible factory, which goes common with both. When to enter momentum and when to be in value is decided based on macro economic cycle and liquidity cycle

I found a silver bullet index fund to invest in India, but there is a huge problem. First, let's talk about this special index. This is the Nifty500 Multifactor MQVLv 50 Index. It is a 50-stock index selected based on a combination of momentum, quality, value and low volatility factors from the Nifty 500. Based on historical backtested data by NSE, the index has delivered close to 20% CAGR since inception (1 April 2005). It has handsomely outperformed Nifty500 across all timeframes with lower volatility in returns. More importantly, this index trades at extremely reasonable valuations 14x P/E and 2% dividend yield based on the latest NSE factsheet from 30 April 2026. So what is the problem? This index was formally launched by NSE last year on 6 February 2025. In 15 months, not a single AMC has launched an ETF or index fund for retail investors to invest in this index. At the same time, exposure to this index is already being offered through high cost insurance products (ULIPs) from HDFC Life, Axis Max Life and Bajaj Allianz. This raises an important question: Why is a low-cost passive investment route still unavailable for this index, while higher-cost insurance wrappers already exist? Retail investors deserve more transparency and easier access to innovative indices without needing to buy insurance products. @NSEIndia

If these reasons account for say 75 % 5 % is cost of capital is high, 20 % is corporates disinterest in research and developing something new. ASML was established in 1984 TSMC in 1987 Does India have a 100 % indigenous electronic product of world class quality ? I don't think so Our private sector couldn't create a refined car engine till date Our pharma is manufacturing drugs, once parents are off, I don't recall a single Indian patented modern medicine

Why is private capex in India still weak despite good corporate profits? This has been concerning the government rightly and our Hon FM @nsitharaman in particular. So I spoke to a lot of businessmen and here is what I conclude: - Policy and tax uncertainty - Fear of unpredictable regulatory action - Many new age companies including start-ups want to invest in asset light businesses over building factories - Weak demand visibility in some sectors - Long legal and approval delays - Global diversification seen as safe hedge - New generation in family-run businesses are more interested in family office investments rather than working hard.

@1shankarsharma Taj Mahal Rajasthan forts and palaces Kerala ayurvedic rejuvenation Period.

I am willing to lay the opposite bet. I was with the 3 foreign tourists recently in India for a few days. When you look at it from the lens of F2 tourists, barring Taj Mahal & Rajasthan Palace Hotels, there is nothing else that they want to see here with they cannot get anywhere else. ( And of course the approach to the Taj ,less said the better) International cards don't work in many many places. They don't want to carry a lot of cash around because of safety. The dirt, squalor ( just outside beautiful Deer park in Delhi, there is a dump truck permanently parked and never cleaned. Non existent roads and payments in most parts Terrible driving ethics whether it is on red light or coming the same way in a one way road whether it is within the city or on highways People who are not cultured or polite or even with basic manners of holding doors open or saying thank you Eg, Goa could have been our Bali , Phuket. But for that we need a swinging liberal culture not moral policing. And yes we need garbage free roads. Out of the 90 lakh tourists every year that come, I am counted a minimum of 20 times because I visit India that many times per year. NRIs are probably 40- 50% of that number. Genuine F2s, F2- esses are probably half. Other countries have not stood still and they have executed. People want amazing places to spend money on. Bali has 80 lakh tourists. Happening night life. Super cheap. Phuket too. Vietnam. Here we only talk and that's where it ends. But yes, this opportunity is a permanent past , present and future opportunity

@iamrakeshbansal 2141 I guess We all need to be actors from famous Kapoor's series, to be alive till then.

🚄 Big update for travellers! Railways Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw says bullet trains will eventually wipe out short-haul flights. Mumbai-Pune in just 48 minutes! Mumbai-Ahmedabad bullet train is India’s first high-speed project. Other routes like Bengaluru-Chennai in 78 mins also planned. High-speed rail is coming strong! niftykaboss.com

@deepakshenoy Govt needs to start considering #Gold import as asset. It's a good hedge against #dollar strength and inflation

If you removed gold, India's current account has been a surplus (not a deficit) for 11 of the last 12 quarters. It's useful to reduce imports, or somehow reuse it internally.

#AI #DATA #KNOWLEDGE Trinity of this decade. This Sunday, using my technical, fundamental analysis & Macroeconomic knowledge & Downloadable data website at 7 USD & AI subscription at 17 USD created a complete Dashboard for all US listed ETF - approx 4000 which will give me Momentum picks Value picks Volume spikes Inflow / outflow RRG charts Premium/Discount to NAV Likely section rotation Actionable inferences. Now, everyday, i will give EOD complete data, and it will update the Dashboard. Thinking of starting a paid service for US Markets listed ETF positional trades. In profits for last two years. @ActusDei

All our business conglomerates have focused only on domestic consumption and to protect their profits lobbyied for restrictive and non viable policies for foreign players entry. Soon, in next press conference They will use AI, 100 times and tell We will use AI for consumption analytics. and, our domestic fund managers joy will go esctstic.

Thinking of it, the Ambani famly post Dhirubhai has not built a SINGLE business which brings export $ Kitna din chalega- Shein re-seller, Colored Soda, Ice Cream, Bhujia, Chips etc Buy some global brands like how Chinese bought Volvo, use Indian base to turn it around ( whirlpool kind of brands which is cheaper than 2-3 weddings is a great place to start)

Rationale approach would be to Stop foreign holiday travel for FY 2026 Reduce Gold purchase by 50 % for FY2026 Reduce road trips by 50 % for FY 2026 People with 2 cars, use smaller engine cars for FY 2026 Family with 4 members can sleep in one room to reduce AC consumption Stop eating fried food by 50 % for FY 2026 Foreign destination weddings must be miniscule, some of them can change plans, if possible Rather than taking extreme positions on both sides, We all should consider it as one year affair of Austerity and Responsible Living.

Destination weddings as well as foreign travel offer far better value for money than traveling in India or holding events in India. x.com/rmantri/status… Indian companies running hotels and airlines fleece customers, offer third rate service at sky high prices - other countries have better products and services because their business and credit ecosystems empower their entrepreneurs to deliver such products and services. Let us not guilt trip Indians who deserve to spend their hard earned, tax paid money with the best ROI. Self flagellation is not a growth strategy.

#compassion #civicsense While going to hospital today morning, on a regular 3 lane city road, I saw from a distance, A watchman in 50's with a bicycle and a small boy about 12 yrs, were struggling to cross the road, as 4 wheelers were zooming like carrom coins. Taking advantage of my large size MPV, I blocked 1.5 lane, and make a way from them to cross the road. Dhurandhar music was nothing infront of the symphony of honking by cars. About 300 meters further at red light, the kind of looks and stare I got, made me nervous. Where is our society going ? Why are we do impatient, non compassionate ? Education and prosperity is supposed to bring wisdom and humbleness.

@amitisinvesting It's very good Please continue

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here’s a full recap: 1. The $SPX S&P 500 and $QQQ Nasdaq closed at fresh all-time highs today, even with oil spiking and U.S.-Iran peace talks stalling. The market is basically saying AI earnings momentum is more important than geopolitical risk right now. The PHLX Semiconductor Index rose 2.6%, with semis now comprising 17% of the S&P 500. 2. The optical networking trade continues to gain momentum. $LITE Lumentum surged after being added to the Nasdaq 100, while peers like $COHR Coherent and $GLW Corning also benefited from the AI data center connectivity theme. This is becoming one of the clearest “picks and shovels” trades in AI infrastructure. $LITE Lumentum’s move matters because the market is realizing AI is not just about GPUs. It is also about optical transceivers, lasers, fiber, switches, power, cooling, copper, glass, and every bottleneck inside the data center stack. The AI trade is expanding from chips into the entire physical infrastructure layer. 3. $TSLA Tesla was in focus after the White House invited Elon Musk, alongside more than a dozen top U.S. executives, to join President Trump’s trip to China this week. The delegation includes Apple’s Tim Cook, and BlackRock’s Larry Fink with other executives from Goldman Sachs, Cisco, Mastercard, Citi, Meta, Micron, and more. The trip is expected to focus on U.S.-China trade and investment, potential Boeing aircraft purchases, agriculture, energy, and possibly extending the rare earths truce, making Musk’s inclusion important given Tesla’s exposure to China manufacturing, demand, and supply chains. Jensen Huang $NVDA and Lisa Su $AMD were not invited as per Reuters. 4. Oil jumped again as the U.S.-Iran situation remained unresolved, with Brent crude moving above $104 and the Strait of Hormuz risk still hanging over the market. This is the main bear case investors are watching: if oil keeps rising, inflation expectations can come back and pressure the Fed. CPI will be reported tomorrow with expectations of a 3.7% print, the highest in 2.5 years. 5. Per Jeffries: "47% of semis/hardware stocks are screening overbought on 14-day RSI (high was 70% in Dec '23, 66% on April 24) as of Friday's close. The SOX is now 60% above its 200-day moving average, a level not seen since March 2000 and July 1995." 6. Earnings season continues to come in strong. Reuters reported that 440 S&P 500 companies $SPX have reported, with 83% beating estimates and Q1 earnings growth now projected at 28.6% year-over-year. That is why the market keeps absorbing bad macro headlines. 7. $CBRS Cerebras increased its planned IPO price range as investor demand for AI chip exposure remains extremely strong. The company is now looking to sell 30 million shares at $150 to $160 each, potentially raising up to $4.8 billion. The AI IPO window is officially open again. 8. $CRCL Circle reported a 20% increase in quarterly revenue and reserve income to $694 million, helped by rising demand for USDC during a volatile period. USDC circulation grew 28% year-over-year to $77 billion, showing that stablecoins are becoming a bigger part of the financial infrastructure story. 9. The most traded options today were $TSLA with 5.5M contracts, $NVDA with 4.8M, $MU with 1.1M, $INTC with 1.0M, $AAPL with 1.0M, $NOK with 886K, $META with 637K, $AMZN with 621K, $MSFT with 591K, and $AMD with 514K. 10. $HIMS Hims & Hers reported Q1 revenue of $608M, up 4% YoY, with subscribers growing 9% YoY to nearly 2.6M. The company raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $2.8B-$3.0B, but profitability moved lower as gross margin fell to 65% from 73%, net loss was $92M, and adjusted EBITDA declined to $44M from $91M last year. Management said 2026 is a “defining year” as the company expands branded GLP-1 offerings, international markets, diagnostics, and technology infrastructure. 11. $ASTS AST SpaceMobile reported Q1 revenue of $14.7M and said it remains on track for full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $150M-$200M. The bigger story is deployment: BlueBird 8, 9, and 10 are expected to launch in mid-June, BlueBird 11 through 33 are already in advanced production, and the company is targeting roughly 45 satellites in orbit during 2026. ASTS also received FCC authorization for commercial SpaceMobile service in the U.S., hit 98.9 Mbps peak data speeds from an in-orbit satellite to an unmodified smartphone, and ended the quarter with about $3.5B in cash 12. China is also in focus ahead of a Trump-Xi summit, with Chinese stocks $BABA $KWEB $JD hitting an 11-year high and the yuan reaching a three-year peak. Investors are watching whether the U.S. and China could coordinate around trade, Iran, and global supply chains. I used to do these recaps a year ago...have gotten a bit busy but looking to bring them back...would people like them at the end of the day? I use AI to help summarize the events but the real time (around 30-40 min daily) comes in curating the best headlines and including the relevant details. Happy to start it again if people want it back! WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

@connectgurmeet “शिवाजी जन्माला यावा, पण शेजाऱ्याच्या घरात.” Meaning: People admire bravery, leadership, and sacrifice like Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj — but often do not want the struggle, risk, or responsibility in their own home.

The govt should lead by example . For next 12 months - all bureaucrats should stop using Lal batti and use Metro for work travels. Also pool govt cars .. all bureaucrats in one dept can pool the car…

@AlgoBoffin Mighty Raju went to a 5 star hair salon and asked Do I need, haircut ? He said, yes certainly Shampoo, combing and nice trimming was done for Raju's three hairs Now, connect this story with MF Managers and retail investors.

No matter if Crude hits $100 or $150. No matter if Inflation grows faster than GDP. No matter if Economy slips into negative growth. No matter if Supply crushes Demand. No matter how brutal the global slowdown becomes… Indian Mutual Funds have only one sacred strategy left: 📈 BUY. 📈 BUY MORE. 📈 BUY EVEN MORE. Because valuation, risk, liquidity, macroeconomics, earnings, geopolitics, recession fears, bond yields, currency collapse… are apparently just ‘temporary negativity’ now. 😂 Market falling 5%? ➡️ SIP Falling 15%? ➡️ Bigger SIP Falling 30%? ➡️ “Historic Opportunity” Falling 50%? ➡️ “India Growth Story Intact” Complete economic collapse? ➡️ “Long Term Wealth Creation” ✍️ @AlgoBoffin …

@etfcom Is there a way to download the daily fund flow for a watchlist of etf ? or for various categories of etf ? Thanks

@sunilgurjar01 You need to check the components of operating expenses in their financial statements. Typically Payments are over stated Rents are overinvoiced Circular trade of physical economy

- PHYSICSWALLAH: 100 CR LOSS - BYJU'S: 8000 CR LOSS - UNACADEMY: 1600 CR LOSS - VEDANTU: 700 CR LOSS - UPGRAD: 600 CR LOSS Meanwhile - 100,000 small institutions & coaching centres closed. So who is actually making money?

@_KiranRajput FII will accept all this If We have ASML TSMC NVIDIA SK HYNIX Samsung MU IREN NEBIUS ROCKETLABS ELI LILY revenue growth is mediocore and non innovation, regular consumption driven why would FII invest ?

Except for one or two outliers, most experts have lost their minds regarding FIIs leaving India. Use some common sense—why would FIIs stick around for a measly 4–6% return once you factor in currency depreciation and those massive tax hikes? FIIs/ FPIs often face a "leaky bucket" problem in India. High nominal returns in Rupees (INR) are eroded by a combination of currency depreciation & a multi-layered tax structure. By the time they convert their profits back into Dollars (USD), the 12-15% market gain frequently shrinks to a risky & peanuts 4-6% net return. The Math of Erosion: Lets take a Case Study (2024–2026) Let’s look at a hypothetical FII investing $100 Million in the Indian market on January 5, 2024, and exiting on May 8, 2026. Phase 1: The Initial Investment USD Amount: $100,000,000 Exchange Rate (Jan 2024): ₹83.19 per $1 Capital in INR: ₹8.319 Cr Phase 2: Market Performance (The "Nominal" Gain) Assume the Indian portfolio grows by a healthy 25% over this roughly 2.3-year period (a CAGR of ~10.5%). Portfolio Value (Pre-Tax): ₹8.319 Cr × 1.25 = ₹10.398 Cr Gross Profit in INR: ₹2.079 Cr Phase 3: The Tax Bite (LTCG) As of 2026, the LTCG tax on equity is 12.5%. For FIIs, surcharges and cesses often push the effective rate higher (roughly ~14-15% depending on the fund's legal structure). LTCG Tax (at ~14%): ₹2.079B × 14% = ₹291 Million Post-Tax Value in INR: ₹10.398B - ₹291M = ₹10.107 Billion Phase 4: The Currency Trap (Depreciation) This is where the "Dollar return" takes the biggest hit. While the market went up, the Rupee weakened. Exchange Rate (May 2026): ₹94.42 per $1 (a ~13.5% depreciation) Conversion back to USD: ₹10.107B / 94.42 = ~$107.04 Million In this scenario, despite a 25% gain in the Indian stock market, the FII walked away with barely 7% total growth in Dollar terms over two years. Hold on, We have not added STT & Brokerage, with that the net returns will slide down to 4-6% range.

@drsunita02 2 wheeler driver starts with few assumptions Car driver has Divya drushti to overcome blind spot Car driver has fast & furious skills to stop car His / her time is extremely precious 2 wheeler rider has first pass right

I am in my small car. I give left indicator and am turning left into the side road. There is a 2 wheeler on my left side. He has already seen my indicator and has also noticed that I have slowed down and am turning. Yet, he cuts straight across. He wants to go straight. Majority of times in these scenarios, the 2 wheelers come in the blind spot of the car driver. We can't see the 2 wheeler. How can the 2 wheeler assume that I know that he wants to go straight? What goes in the mind of the 2 wheeler? Not always the 4 wheeler driver is at fault. So many times, 2 wheeler guys are at fault and drive rashly. #Safedriving

Taxes Lack of meaningful private capex growth Non contribution to AI supply chain Currency depreciation And now, energy price inflation 2026, will be tough year again for Indian equity, I guess Removing taxes on equity for 2 years, is easiest doable, it will hopefully tackle point 4

Interesting data highlighting how out of favour India currently is with global investors. Global equity funds have attracted over $210 billion of inflows in the last 6 months — the strongest 6-month stretch on record. Emerging Market ETFs alone have seen $35 billion of inflows in 2026 so far. Meanwhile, India has witnessed FPI outflows of $21 billion in 2026 till date. I cannot recall seeing such a sharp divergence between flows into India and the broader EM basket. @FinMinIndia and @PMOIndia may need to closely evaluate the reasons behind this trend and consider corrective measures.

#MU #SNDK #MEMORY This is new market phenomenon Theme gets traction, Everyone loads up Valuations become expensive Influencers cry financial nirvana Trade gets crowded Price goes parabolic Everyone cries, this time it's different Then comes the meltdown Change is, These cycles are shortening now

@dmuthuk Enjoy, Double engine loot & Double decker freebies

ADMK is leaving NDA. No more alliance with BJP. DMK is likely endup supporting a ADMK government from outside. Allies of both DMK and ADMK may find a place in the new government. So both the national parties- BJP and Congress- have no alliance with dravidian parties. Congress has broken it's alliance with DMK and is now part of TVK alliance. BJP is now not part of any alliance. Media reports that this proposed government has the support of 120 MLAs, more than the required 118 numbers. Vijay is unable to add beyond the 113 numbers he has. He is likely to be the opposition leader. Wouldn't be surprised if swearing in of Edapaddi Palanisamy happens as early as Sunday. Expect lot of news flows, twists and turns during next few days.