Ezra Karger

We completed the most comprehensive study of how economists and AI experts think AI will affect the U.S. economy. They predict major AI progress—but no dramatic break from economic trends: GDP growth rates similar to today's and a moderate decline in labor force participation. However, when asked to consider what would happen in a world with extremely rapid progress in AI capabilities by 2030, they predict significant economic impacts by 2050: • Annualized GDP growth of 3.5% (compared to 2.4% in 2025) • A labor force participation rate of 55% (roughly 10 million fewer jobs) • 80% of wealth held by the top 10% (highest since 1939) 🧵 Here's what we found:

Today, we are launching the most rigorous ongoing source of expert forecasts on the future of AI: the Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP). We’ve assembled a panel of 339 top experts across computer science, AI industry, economics, and AI policy. Roughly every month—for the next three years—they’ll provide precise, falsifiable forecasts on the trajectory of AI capabilities, adoption, and impact. Our results cover where experts predict major effects of AI, where they expect less progress than AI industry leaders, and where they disagree. LEAP experts forecast major effects of AI by 2030, including: ⚡ 7x increase in AI’s share of U.S. electricity use (1% -> 7%) 🖥️ 9x increase in AI-assisted work hours (2% -> 18%) By 2040, experts predict: 👥30% of adults will use AI for companionship daily 🏆60% chance that AI will solve or substantially assist in solving a Millennium Prize Problem 🚂32% chance that AI will have been at least as impactful as a "technology of the millennium," like the printing press or the Industrial Revolution. 🧵Read on for more insights and results

This morning, the @chicagofed introduced new labor market indicators that combine private sector data with official labor statistics to provide a real-time view of hiring, layoffs and other job separations, and an early forecast of the unemployment rate. chicagofed.org/research/data/….

Today we're releasing findings from the largest-ever forecasting survey of nuclear risk experts & superforecasters (151 total), conducted with @OpenNuclear. The median expert saw a 5% chance of catastrophe by 2045 - but identified policies that could cut this risk in half. 🧵

New working paper with @EzraKarger: We document a "liquidity channel" through which unexpected inflation generates substantial welfare losses due to a nominal maturity mismatch on household balance sheets. Link: research.stlouisfed.org/wp/more/2024-0…

Today, we're excited to announce ForecastBench: a new benchmark for evaluating AI and human forecasting capabilities. Our research indicates that AI remains worse at forecasting than expert forecasters. 🧵 Arxiv: arxiv.org/abs/2409.19839 Website: forecastbench.org

@CEDR_US @peternka Sorry about that! See chicagofed.org/publications/w…

@peternka @EzraKarger Peter, this looks super interesting, but the link to the fed appears broken.