PHFREEZE❄️
209 posts
Gave out TWO NBA Props in the VIP tonight. Will look to send out some halftime props. You know where to find it!! Tap in!
English
If you're betting on Game 4 of Thunder-Spurs, here are 5 points you NEED to know
1) The Spurs have to attack Jared McCain. McCain's presence in this game has kept the Thunder afloat while JDub and Ajay manage injuries. To counter, they have to go at him more defensively which brings value to two guys in my mind: Julian Champagnie and Devin Vassell.
Really like Penny specifically at 11.5 PA because when McCain isn't on him, he sees Shai or Chet who have the tendency to sag off shooters. Led to 12 PA for him last game despite 2/8 3P shooting. Keldon is also struggling in this series which helps his minutes and he should be a strong part of the gameplan tonight.
2) The sneakily consistent piece in this series: Cason Wallace. Cord got 8.5 PA, obviously gone but I'll draw your attention to a prop of his that hasn't moved: 1.5 3PM at +140. Closed at +142 LG when he was 6.5 points, now he's 8.5 and the price is still relatively the same.
While I do expect Shai to get more shots tonight, Cason should still get his and has been extremely aggressive thus far in the series covering this in 3/3. He's extremely important defensively and even more so with Ajay out (14 2H minutes). He should have a solid outing tonight.
3) Chet Holmgren's rebounding. This is one of those lines that you eventually just think is a trap, but Chet at 7.5 rebounds makes no sense at all. We took his o8.5 in G1 because the Thunder opted to go with wings on Wemby making him the weakside beneficiary and it led to 21 rebound chances. But now, with the Thunder winning the L2 games using bigs on Wemby, he's had just 11 and 10 rebound chances with Wemby as his primary matchup.
OKC has also gone away from their main double big with Hartenstein/Chet just sharing the court for just 7.8 minutes last game and having just one roto together outside of them starting the halves. This furthers Chet's minutes on Wemby, thus decreasing his rebounding value. Not sure how he gets 8 tonight and while I haven't played it, I might have to pay the price tonight.
4) How do the Spurs defend Shai? Would imagine we see a conscious effort for the Spurs to do two things tonight: help later on Shai's drives and get him off the FT line. They struggled last game leading to 12 FTs and Mitch Johnson was livid about that number. Think we see a much more disciplined Spurs team and Shai taking a higher number of FGA in this one.
I also think they don't threaten the double as early here. Shai's outlet passes were too easy last game and the shooting of OKC dominated the game. Think they still double Shai, but deeper into the paint which allows Wemby to become more of a factor. With this being said though, Shai lines do seem sharp tonight but I'm expecting more shots overall for him.
Couple more things I see, but not main points:
- Value on Spurs guards assists (Fox/Castle), elite volume for both, tough choice between the two
- Jaylin Williams becomes a beneficiary of the Chet v Wemby defensive matchup, but 3.5 reb is a tight ask at that juice
- Wemby keeps mentioning getting his teammates involved, but film doesn't back his 3.5 assists the way the quotes do.
Should be another banger of a game, excited to see what these coaches do. A lot shorter article as I don't like as much here.
English
✅ - THATS AN EARLY Q3 CASH!!! I NEED TO SEE WHO GOT THIS IN! 👇
Prop Bomb 🏝️@PropBomb
FREE GAME 3 PLAYER PROP!! ⬇️ 1u - OG Anunoby (NYK) OVER 14.5 Points (-108 @ FD, -110 @ ESPN, -118 @ BetOnline, -120 @ CZR, HR, MGM) OG wasn't needed in Game 2 and didn't make an impact with Hart going off, but that button can easily be pressed once regression sets in, and the Knicks need different answers. The Cavs can't put Harden on Brunson because Brunson destroys him. They can't put Harden on Bridges because Bridges destroys him. So they hide Harden on OG and pay the price elsewhere. By this coverage, they are allowing Cleveland's defensive setup to create his scoring path, which means OG attacks Harden in isolation. When Allen chases him on perimeter drives, the mismatch is equally bad. OG played 34 minutes in Game 1 and 32 in Game 2 with no restriction. He told reporters postgame he "felt good." he offensive load shifts toward OG and Bridges. #PlayerProps
English
Halftime update
Mitch-12 points
Brunson-9 points
LOVED the reads. I don’t think either player scored on a PnR action could be wrong.
d mitch is getting his stuff from isolation
champ@champ29999
Jalen Brunson I do believe the cavs will resort mainly towards a zone/play in gaps defense. IMO this is likely their best defense. The knicks were held to 109 points. I think Kenny has a recipe to counter brunson and the switches that they want Now if we remember when the cavs played toronto we saw whenever the defender wouldn't be Shead/Scottie we saw them play in high gaps taking away driving lanes. We saw kenny resorting to this approach 2nd half but it came in different waves First we saw hard doubles but then we saw playing two on each wing leaving the entry pass wide open. Finally we saw Harden or whoever play on the top of the key in order to limit the entry pass. I believe in this as you want Hart/Clarkson/Shamet beat you off the dribble when in rotations I also believe that wade won't really be used here. 7 2H minutes and 0 fourth quarter minutes. Well if you don't stay true to wade on brunson there is NO point in playing him. If you are going to just show extra help. We should also see them taking away the entry pass and blitzing brunson which will lead brunson to make a longggg skip pass I am expecting the cavs to make others beat them off the dribble. I also expect them to eliminate the entry pass
English
Donovan Mitchell
I think there was a HUGE difference in how they played Donovan mitchell in the third quarter than the fourth quarter
Q3: 5/8 / 45% usage
Q4: 1/4 / 31% usage
I think this has to do with the extra aggression towards mitchell in the PnR and in isolation.
I think they will be more content if mikal gets burned by harden(which I don't think he can) they will live with it.
They ran drop coverage against harden and blitzed mitchell that 4th quarter
English
Recap!
thunder
-Shai tough shots/doubles✅26 points
-Jared Mccain✅ ✅o11.5 PRA/o4.5 RA
-Caruso✅ 5 3PA(3PA line was 5.5)
-Ajay❌ 2 points
spurs
-Wemby✅ 26 points(line was 26.5)
-Vassell✅❌ 6 3PA/ 3 3PM( 3PA line was + money at u7.5)
-keldon❌ 5 fouls 17 minutes 2 RA
I would count vassell as a straight ✅ but I do have to be more clear with it. I played u7.5 3PA at + money. Same with caruso I played u5.5 3PA. Will be more clear moving forward
champ@champ29999
Spurs vs Thunder preview 1. OKC offense 2. Spurs offense If the player isn't listed ask me about them. Watched the game 3 times so lmk
English
@PropBomb The analysis was correct, but he didn't help us; we'll wait until tomorrow.
English
Caruso attempted 1 three in the fourth quarter and it was a 2 second heave with the shot clock expiring( 8 minutes of playing time)
I think they shift more towards putting wemby on ajay who is shooting 33% this post season from three and currently 0/3 from three vs the spurs
I think caruso stops getting guarded by wemby and guards ajay/dort(when hes in)/ ihart. At least one will be in all times.
English
@champ29999 How can I talk to you? I want to share my analyses with you.
English
He’s can’t keep shooting like this‼️
1u: Alex Caruso u14.5 PR (-136)
#ThunderUp
He’s been excellent through the first two games of the series, but regression could be coming. The matchups have consistently left him with wide-open looks, helping him shoot an unsustainably high 64.5% from the field so far.
At the same time, his offensive volume has already started to decline. After attempting 19 shots in Game 1, Caruso took just 7 in Game 2. If that trend continues and the shooting efficiency cools off, it’ll be difficult for him to maintain this level of production.
Additionally, in both of the games he’s only managed to grab 5 total rebounds.
Furthermore, throughout the whole postseason Caruso has averaged 13.5 points, staying under this line in 6 out of 10 games.
This is the first game of the series in San Antonio, and in 31 total road games this season Caruso has averaged 11 PR’s while only clearing this line in 6 of those games.
Lastly in 3 road games versus the Spurs since joining OKC, Caruso has averaged only 4.6 points and 3.3 rebounds.
Get all my free picks👇
action.onelink.me/qhpb/JustLucky…
English
@FREEZEEDITOR if you want to live bet it then its honestly a look. see how they play the drop. if they don’t defend it then i can see it
i did post plays such as
mccain RA, pra, keldon RA, ajay points
English
@champ29999 Yes, I understand, beautiful view, do you find it interesting, or would you appeal to your attempts?
English
@FREEZEEDITOR 2H 3PA
-hit in the eye and i hart doesn’t contest
-pulls up top of the key with jay will hand down
-lost in coverage
-miscommunication with caruso and ihart on the PnR
not saying he won’t get looks but i believe its not going to be as simple as PnR turned to wide open 3
English
@champ29999 He had 7 attempts in the last game, that was because of OKC's lineup with Hartenstein, that shouldn't happen again, because they'll probably keep the same lineup.
English
@FREEZEEDITOR personally if he does it will be from lost in the okc defense which i personally wouldn't bet on. his threes came in weird fashions
English
about to post preview but mccain is still at 11.5 pra on bet 365. other sites have it at 13.5
RA moved to -140 so wouldn't touch anymore
champ@champ29999
Bet 365 has stuff on mccain that I will be playing o2.5 RA for -130 o11.5 PRA for -115 both .5u since pra was bumped from 10.5 to 11.5
English