FRNT Financial

FRNT Financial is pleased to announce that its wholly-owned subsidiary, FRNT Financial UK Limited has been granted authorization by the Financial Conduct Authority to operate in the UK. This is a major development in the firm's international expansion that broadens FRNT's global regulatory footprint and allows the firm to continue to satisfy the growing needs of regulated institutional investors operating at the intersection of traditional regulated finance, digital assets and other innovative industries. newswire.ca/news-releases/…

Great partnership announcement for @FRNT_Financial with @balance_canada today - one of the longest standing and most reliable core infrastructure providers in the space - congrats all, now let's go! 🚀

From today's '24 Hrs in Crypto:' Trading volume for USDt against the turkish lira (TRY) has outpaced BTC/TRY trading volume by nearly four to one on popular Turkish exchange BTCTurk over the past two years (See Chart of The Day) - We discuss the role @tether's $USDt plays in emerging markets & the implications for $BTC Substack: frnt.substack.com/p/stablecoins-… Over the past five years, the Turkish lira has lost ~84% of its value against the US dollar. Acute fiat currency debasement in countries like Turkey, which is the 16th largest global economy by GDP, have long been a bullish thesis for BTC and crypto adoption more broadly. This thesis has largely panned out thus far. According to Chainalysis’ 2025 Global Crypto Adoption Index, the US is the only developed nation among the top 10. The US placed second, with India ahead of it and Pakistan, Vietnam and Brazil placing third, fourth and fifth; Turkey placed 14th. In 2024, according to data from Chainalysys, ‘stablecoin trading volumes on [centralized exchanges were] equal to 4% of GDP in dollar equivalent terms’ in Turkey. We have observed the pattern of USDt/TRY volumes outpacing those of BTC/TRY with other emerging market fiat currencies. For instance, in January we pointed out that ‘[o]ver the past year, USDt/BRL saw an aggregate volume of USDt 13.66B; this is compared to USDt 4.79B in trading volume by BTC/BRL.’ The reason for this dynamic is likely the following: locals are seeking the relative safety of the US dollar while BTC’s volatility makes the asset a difficult store of value in the near-term. For crypto proponents, digital assets represent a logical solution for emerging markets. BTC advocates point to the asset as a hedge against currency debasement. The self-custodial nature and peer-to-peer transactability of digital assets allows users to avoid counterparty risks tied to local institutions and possible undue censorship. Via crypto, users in emerging markets are able to access an array of financial services that may be lacking in their local jurisdictions. These crypto native services include borrowing, earning interest, and increasingly, investing in tokenized real-world assets, such as gold. Takeaway: Compared to emerging market fiat currencies, the US dollar offers relative safety. The cryptocurrency characteristics of stablecoins provide additional incentives for gaining US dollar exposure via blockchains in emerging markets. However, BTC proponents are quick to point out the US dollar itself has seen diminishing purchasing power. In this context, BTC advocates often pitch stablecoins as a stepping stone towards the asset’s adoption. Stablecoins allow users to become familiar with novel concepts such as digital wallets, private key management, and the irreversibility of crypto transactions. In this context, despite USDt trading volumes against emerging market currencies continuing to outpace BTC, stablecoin adoption continues to be a bull catalyst for the asset.

FRNT CEO @StephOFRNT spoke to CNBC about Polymarket's return to the US market and the role prediction markets play in finance: On some level this has always been the case, says Stephane Ouellette, co-founder and CEO of digital asset investment bank FRNT Financial. Some who understood the intricacies of oil futures, for instance, could suss out whether political tensions in the Middle East might boil over, he says. “There’s been a huge innovation where now we’re turning these markets into more digestible information that a retail trader can now understand,” Ouellette says. “Whereas before you needed like a Ph.D. in market analysis to be able to figure this out.” youtube.com/watch?v=8bqPzv…

From today's '24 Hrs in Crypto:' Elemental Royalty Corporation (TSX-V: ELE, NASDAQ: ELE) has become ‘the first gold company globally to offer shareholder dividends payable in’ Tether’s tokenized gold product, XAUt Subscribe to the full note: frnt.substack.com/p/elemental-ro… According to an announcement from the gold royalty firm, Elemental ‘anticipates that qualifying registered shareholders will be able to elect to receive their dividend in the form of’ XAUt tokens. The firm’s shareholders will be provided ‘with direct ownership of physical gold through their investment in gold royalties.’ In a separate announcement, Tether described the development as a ‘historic milestone for the gold industry.’ According to Tether, which holds 140 tons of gold, the move ‘introduces a modern model for shareholder distributions by connecting traditional gold ownership with blockchain-based infrastructure.’ In a January interview with CEO Paolo Ardoino on the extent of Tether’s gold ambitions, Bloomberg pointed out Tether ‘has taken stakes in almost every mid-sized Canadian listed royalty company, including Elemental Royalty Corp, Metalla Royalty & Streaming Ltd, Versamet Royalties Corp and Gold Royalty Corp.’ In September, Tether increased its USD 105M stake in Elemental by USD 100M, in conjunction with the latter firm’s merger with EMX Royalty Corporation (NYSEAMERICAN | TSXV: EMX). Additionally, Tether believes that XAUt can significantly expand in 2026 and end the year with USD 5B to 10B in market circulation, according to Ardoino. The CEO also believes ‘foreign countries that are buying a lot of gold’ will eventually launch tokenized gold products. Early examples of this trend have begun, with Bhutan and Kyrgyzstan launching tokenized gold products late last year. The two leading tokenized gold products at the moment are XAUt and PAXG, with market caps of USD 2.55B and 2.26B, respectively. This week, in announcing the availability of tokenized gold via OTC trading, Wintermute CEO Evgeny Gaevoy remarked that gold is ‘[undergoing] the same infrastructure evolution that turned foreign exchange into the world’s largest market.’ According to Gaevoy, ‘Gold is now following that playbook, and we expect the tokenized gold market to reach [USD 15B] in 2026 as institutional adoption accelerates.’ Crypto proponents envision blockchain technology as endowing gold with new capabilities, such as peer-to-peer transactability or the integration into crypto-native financial services, such as collateralized lending. This may allow investors to borrow against gold in ways that are difficult with physical bullion. Takeaway: Tether’s announcement of the Elementing move pitched it as ’a major evolution for both gold markets and digital asset infrastructure, demonstrating how tokenization can extend beyond trading and into real-world corporate finance.’ For crypto proponents, this is a spot on pitch for the uptake of blockchains as infrastructure for traditional capital, like gold.

From today's '24 Hrs in Crypto:' With gold continuing to reach new all-time highs, in this AM’s note we review the precious metal’s performance from the perspective of ardent, long-term holders of BTC Subscribe & read the full note: frnt.substack.com/p/golds-perfor… Gold’s rally signals the conditions that many BTC proponents envisioned when first purchasing the asset: Bitcoin’s 2009 genesis block, mined by the asset’s pseudonymous creator Satoshi Nakamoto, featured the message, ‘The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks.’ The message served as an allusion to the economic turmoil of the era and the alternative monetary system the asset was designed to represent. In this regard, the broad anxiety related to global macro dynamics dynamics that is driving demand for gold, from the perspective of long-time BTC proponents, is also conducive to the asset’s adoption. Gold’s rally increases BTC’s addressable market: BTC proponents have often pointed to BTC’s relatively small market cap to other macro assets to underscore its earliness and upside. The expansion of gold signals growing demand for neutral, global, assets that offer insulation from worrying macro dynamics. BTC proponents are confident that the asset’s qualities that allow it to serve as a safe haven asset will receive increased attention under these circumstances. BTC proponents will also be quick to highlight the asset’s advantages over gold. For instance, in June 2025 we wrote that an FT headline, ‘Germany and Italy pressed to bring $245bn of gold home from US,’ underscores a key advantage of BTC over gold: BTC custody is infinitely scalable and offers key advantages over physical bullion. We wrote that, ‘[u]nlike physical gold, BTC custody is infinitely scalable. What this means in practice is that custodying one BTC is not more difficult compared to custodying 100,000 BTC.’ Gold’s growing role in the crypto space: In a broad interview with Bloomberg with Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino, the news outlet placed the firm’s gold holding at 140 tons, worth USD ~25B. Considering that a portion of this gold backs Tether tokenized gold product XAUt, the remaining USD ~22.4B represents 12% of USDt’s market cap. As of Tether’s Q3 2025 attestation report, 7.41% of USDt’s market cap market cap was backed by gold. According to Bloomberg, Tether is now ‘the world’s largest known hoard of bullion outside of banks and nation states.’ Besides gold’s growing backing of the largest stablecoin, Ardoino told Bloomberg that he believes countries currently ‘buying a lot of gold…will soon launch tokenized version of gold as a competitive currency to the US dollar.’ As we pointed out yesterday, this is already taking place: In December, Bhutan and Kyrgyzstan launched tokenized gold products. Crypto proponents believe that tokenized gold can endow the precious metals with new capacities, such as peer-to-peer transferability or access to crypto native financial services. For example, holders from emerging markets where financial services may be deficient will be able to borrow against tokenized gold in a manner not possible with physical precious metal. Ardoino told Bloomberg he foresees there is a ‘good chance’ that XAUt can end 2026 with a market cap from USD 5B to 10B; XAUt’s current market cap is USD 2.6B. In the US, Google searches for ‘gold price’ surpassed those for ‘bitcoin price’ in April 2025 for the first time since June 2020.

From this AM's '24 Hrs in Crypto:' Yesterday, @tether launched @usat , a US market-focused stablecoin, while separately, CEO @paoloardoino discussed the company’s gold strategy with Bloomberg, revealing the extent of the company’s ambitions regarding bullion - We discuss these developments in this AM’s note Subscribe and read the full note: frnt.substack.com/p/reviewing-la… Yesterday, Tether launched USAT, a US market-focused stablecoin, while separately, CEO Paolo Ardoino discussed the company’s gold strategy with Bloomberg, revealing the extent of the company’s ambitions regarding bullion - We discuss these developments in this AM’s note ‘USAT is now available to U.S. users seeking a dollar-backed token built to operate within the US’ dedicated federal regime:’ Tether’s US-focused stablecoin is issued on behalf of the company by Anchorage Digital Bank, ‘America’s first federally regulated stablecoin issuer.’ Cantor Fitzgerald will act as the designated reserve custodian and serve as preferred primary dealer. In September, Bo Hines, former executive director of the President’s Council of Advisers on Digital Assets, was appointed CEO of USAT. Tether holds 140 tons of gold, worth USD ~24B, in a Swiss vault: The ~24B in bullion held by Tether is part of USDt’s reserves and backs the firm’s tokenized gold product, XAUt. USDt’s backing, which according to its latest attestation also includes 5.44% BTC, is what renders the stablecoin non-compliant with the GENIUS Act. The framework permits stablecoins based in the country to be backed exclusively by US Treasuries. According to Bloomberg’s latest figures, ~12% of USDt’s USD 186B market cap is now backed by gold. According to the Q3 2025 attestation, gold’s share in Tether’s reserves stood at 7.13%. Ardoino told Bloomberg that he foresees the company continuing to acquire gold at a rate of roughly one to two tons a week for ‘definitely the next few months.’ The 70 tons of gold that Tether purchased in 2025 outpace any central bank, except Poland, which acquired 102 tons of gold. According to Ardoino, ‘[w]e are soon becoming basically one of the biggest, let’s say, gold central banks in the world.’ The CEO also indicated that Tether needs ‘the best trading floor for gold in the world’ in order to continue buying the precious metal. Tether continues to explore potential trading strategies that would allow it to ‘[remain] very long physical gold.’ ‘...we believe that these countries will soon launch tokenized version of gold as a competitive currency to the US dollar:’ According to Ardoino, the ‘foreign countries that are buying a lot of gold’ will eventually launch tokenized gold products. In fact, there are several examples of such initiatives: In December, Bhutan and Kyrgyzstan launched tokenized gold products. Paolo indicated that he believes Tether’s XAUt, which currently has a market cap of USD 2.33B, could end the year ‘with [USD 5B to 10B in market circulation.’ According to Ardoino, if that happens, the company would need to buy more than one ton of gold a week just for XAUT. ‘We believe that the world is going towards darkness:’ Ardoino told Bloomberg the firm believes the world is headed towards a period of turmoil and uncertainty. This reflects prior statements by Ardoino, who told Forbes in 2024, for example, that one of the firm’s ‘mottos’ is ‘build for the apocalypse.’ Tether’s XAUt stablecoin has seen significant expansion over the past year.

From this AM's '24 Hrs in Crypto:' BTC traded to as low as USD ~86,000 last night while gold reached a new record high - We review select dynamics & market narratives in this AM’s note Read more & subscribe to the full note: Gold in the crypto space: The combined market cap of the two leading tokenized gold products, Tether’s XAUt and Paxos’ PAXG, currently stands at USD 4.28B. These two tokens are the largest examples of tokenized gold though we’ve previously characterized their market caps as relatively small for crypto standards. Despite the small size of the market, according to FT reporting from November, Tether’s ramped up acquisition of gold in 2025 has been partly motivated by the stablecoin issuer ‘betting on tokenised physical gold finally catching on.’ With 116 tonnes of gold as of November 2025, Tether is now the largest holder of the precious metal outside of central banks. In 2025, gold also emerged as a more pronounced portion of the reserves backing the USD 186B USDt stablecoin. According to Tether’s Q3 2025 attestation, Tether’s gold and BTC represented 7.13% and 5.44% of USDt’s reserves, respectively. The Q3 2024 attestation report indicated that gold and BTC represented 3.95% and 3.81% of the stablecoin’s reserves. BTC and gold are ‘assets of fear:’ Speaking at the Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit in Hong Kong in November, BlackRock (NYSE: BLK) CEO Larry Fink described gold and BTC as ‘assets of fear.’ According to Fink, ‘you own these instruments if you are frightened of the debasement of your currency, you own it if you have financial insecurity…’ While for long-time BTC adopters the asset’s safe haven qualities have been evident since its earliest days, this view is now receiving mainstream attention. In this context, for many ardent BTC proponents, the ongoing global backdrop is likely close to what they imagined when first purchasing the asset. Against these conditions, that many see as highly conducive for BTC adoption, some market participants have been disappointed by the performance of crypto over the past year. BTC’s ‘delayed reaction’ in 2020: In March 2020, the Fed’s emergency rate cut, induced by the COVID-19 crisis, came following the crypto space’s sell-off, along with broader risk assets. That sell-off saw BTC fall from USD ~8,000 to USD ~4,000. Following the emergency cut, despite the extreme crypto sell-off, we pointed out that ‘the Western environment is quickly becoming one that crypto was designed to serve.’ We also wrote, ‘[i]f Bitcoin was born of any concern, it was an abuse of Central Bank balance sheets and financial censorship from governments.’ However, following those emergency rate cuts, ultimately, it took BTC ~10 months to break out above its 2017 record high of USD ~20,000. BTC’s ‘delayed reaction’ to macro dynamics in 2020 is an important context for those disappointed by the asset’s performance over the past year. The chances of a US Government shutdown have increased to 82% on Polygon-based prediction market Polymarket.

From today's '24 Hrs in Crypto:' On Binance, USDt trading volume against the Brazilian real (BRL) outpaced BTC trading by nearly three times, continuing a trend in emerging markets we have previously observed - We describe emerging market adoption in this AM’s note Subscribe and read the full note: frnt.substack.com/p/emerging-mar… Over the past year, USDt/BRL saw an aggregate volume of USDt 13.66B; this is compared to USDt 4.79B in trading volume by BTC/BRL. This pattern reflects that USDt trades against emerging market fiat currencies on Binance at multiples of the volumes seen in BTC pairs. For instance, USDt trading against the Argentine peso (ARS) saw USDt 628.44M in volume over the past year, compared to USDt 39.00M recorded by BTC/ARS. Continuing an additional historic pattern, in Brazil and Argentina, Google searches for ‘usdt’ outpaced those ‘usdc’ by ~5 to 1 and ~7 to 1, respectively. In March of last year, we pointed out Google searches for ‘usdt’ in Turkey reached a nearly two year high as lira (TRY) reached a record low. In 2024, according to data from Chainalysys, ‘stablecoin trading volumes on [centralized exchanges were] equal to 4% of GDP in dollar equivalent terms’ in Turkey. At the time, we noted that TRY/USDt volumes outpace those from BTC/TRY by ~10 to 1. In Turkey, we also pointed out the popularity of speculative trading involving riskier crypto assets; in March 2025, ‘[c]umulative trading volume for XRP/TRY over the past year, USDt 5.12B, was larger than BTC/TRY.’ Google search interest in Turkey for USDt is roughly ~25x higher than for USDC over the past year. Brazil, Argentina, and Turkey are the 11th, 25th, and 16th largest economies by GDP. Against varying time horizons, these countries’ currencies have significantly depreciated against the US dollar. Crypto proponents have viewed such jurisdictions as hotbeds for crypto uptake. Crypto markets offer residents access to US dollar stablecoin–denominated financial services, tokenized assets like gold, and peer-to-peer payments. data suggest that emerging markets do in fact lead digital asset adoption; according to Chainalysis, the top ten countries in terms of crypto adoption in 2025 are: India, United States, Pakistan, Vietnam, Brazil, Nigeria, Indonesia, Ukraine, Philippines, Russian Federation. These nations have seen significant depreciation of local currencies against the US dollar. Takeaway: The data described in this note suggests that crypto proponents’ view that emerging markets will be a driver of crypto adoption is playing out in practice. Many of the nations described in this note are quintessential adopters of crypto: acute economic conditions including aggressive currency debasement, political instability and disputed rule of law, paired with a tech savvy and relatively youthful population. The data also confirms that historical patterns of stablecoin purchases outpacing BTC have continued in 2025. It is likely that US dollar stablecoins’ relative strength to local currencies is attractive, while BTC’s volatility makes shorter-term saving more difficult. In 2025, USDt/BRL volumes heavily outpaced those from the BTC/BRL pair on Binance.

From today's '24 Hrs in Crypto:' There has been a notable uptick in Ethereum usage metrics over the past several weeks - We discuss the development in this AM’s note Subscribe to the full note: frnt.substack.com/p/ethereum-usa… In 2025, Ethereum underwent two upgrades Pectra and Fusaka. In broad terms, together, these upgrades improved the network’s scalability, usability, and efficiency, making it cheaper to transact, easier to use, and better suited to support growing on-chain activity. For Ethereum proponents, the notable uptick in usage metrics suggest that the upgrades are having the desired effect, i.e. driving new usage and adoption of the network while keeping transaction costs low. These increased usage metrics include: Daily transaction count: Last week Ethereum achieved an all-time high 2.86M daily transactions. Ethereum had previously set a record for the metric in late December, achieving 2.21M daily transactions. The 30-day moving average of daily Ethereum transactions is now at an all-time high as well, 1.99M. Additionally, the 30-day moving average of the metric is now ~20% higher than the previous record, set in August of last year. The number of active addresses: The number of active addresses on the Ethereum network, defined as, ‘[t]he number of unique addresses that were active in the network either as a sender or receiver,’ has reached 1.04M. This is the highest level for the metric since December 2022. The 30 day moving average of the metric is currently 517,649, the highest level since May 2021. Proportion of ETH’s supply deployed in staking: Last week, the proportion of $ETH supply that is staked reached a record high of 30%. At the moment, 36.11M is staked, worth USD ~116.28B. Additionally, the queue to remove ETH from staking has dropped to just 64 ETH after maintaining record high levels throughout late 2025. In parallel to the elevated usage metrics, the US dollar value of average Ethereum transaction fees have trended lower in 2025. In December, the average Ethereum transaction fee was just USD 0.22. For context, the highest monthly average for transaction fees on the network was USD 46.38, achieved in November 2021. A total of USD 11.50M transaction fees were paid in December 2025 on the network, compared to USD 1.81B in November 2021, the record high for the metric. Ethereum transaction fees are a function of demand for using the network on one hand, and the network’s throughput capacities on the other. Takeaway: For Ethereum proponents, all-time high usage metrics, paired with dropping transaction fees, suggest that the network’s technical vision and roadmap is playing out. Previously, a prominent criticism of Ethereum was that it was too expensive and lacked the throughput capacity to support growing interest in blockchain for applications such as tokenization or payments via stablecoins. The average transaction fee on the Ethereum network remains low, in line with trends over the past year, despite a significant uptick in usage metrics:

From this morning's '24 Hrs in Crypto:' Subpoenas served to the US Fed will serve as an opportunity for BTC proponents to highlight the asset’s a prior set & immutable monetary characteristics - We discuss the development as it relates to BTC in this AM’s note Read and subscribe to the full note: frnt.substack.com/p/latest-fed-c… In March 2024, as BTC neared its 2021 record high, FRNT CEO Stephane Ouellette told Bloomberg columnist John Authers that ‘there’s generally a distrust for establishment organizations and a slow realization that Bitcoin provides some insulation to these forces.’ FRNT’s CEO gave the examples of regional banking troubles in 2023 and an ‘extreme amount of currency crises globally.’ Fast forward to 2026, and this dynamic of uncertainty, economic anxiety, and geopolitical turmoil has continued. For early BTC proponents, the asset’s ability to offer insulation from both local and global challenges has been evident from the asset’s inception. Bitcoin’s 2009 genesis block, mined by the asset’s pseudonymous creator Satoshi Nakamoto, featured the message, ‘The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks.’ In this regard, for BTC proponents, many of the global dynamics taking place today represent the dynamics they likely envisioned when first acquiring the asset. Unlike BTC’s earlier history, when it was viewed with scepticism by many traditional market practitioners, in 2026 the asset core thesis as a safe haven asset is no longer outside of mainstream discourse. For example, speaking at the Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit in Hong Kong in November, hosted by the city’s Monetary Authority, BlackRock (NYSE: BLK) CEO Larry Fink described gold and BTC as ‘assets of fear.’ According to Fink, ‘you own these instruments if you are frightened of the debasement of your currency, you own it if you have financial insecurity…’ Takeaway: For BTC’s cult-like followers, this rift will likely harden their commitment to ‘HODLing.’ This investment strategy, characterized by strong confidence in BTC’s uptake as a global safe haven asset and its long-term appreciation, is reflected in the fact that 42.63% of BTC’s supply remains un-moved for three or more years, according to data from Glassnode. This metric has seen a relatively small decline from its all-time high of 46.77% in May 2024, despite the asset’s appreciation of ~82% between then and October’s record high. In this regard, BTC proponents remain committed to HODLing and confident in the asset’s long-term outlook. At the same time, the ability of new investors to access the asset has been significantly built-out over the past several years but also continues to expand. In parallel, BTC’s qualities as a ‘safe haven’ asset are increasingly being pitched to a wider audience than ever before in the asset’s history.

From today's '24 Hrs in Crypto:' Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) revealed plans to launch a crypto wallet in the second half of the year, among a slate of other crypto-focused efforts being developed Subscribe and read the full note: frnt.substack.com/p/morgan-stanl… According to Jed Finn, head of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, the bank has significant plans for digital assets, its workplace business, and private-market investing. These plans include the launch of a crypto wallet in the second half of the year. This wallet would support a variety of tokenized assets, ‘including private companies’ equity.’ Via a partnership revealed with Zerohash, Morgan Stanley also plans to provide trading in BTC, ETH and SOL via the bank’s E*Trade platform, which according to Finn, will go live in the first half of 2026. This initiative was initially revealed last year in September. This week, Morgan Stanley also filed to launch BTC, SOL and ETH ETFs. According to Barron’s, ‘[t]he company envisions its in-house offering as a platform for eventually handling transactions involving not just coins, but all manner of tokenized assets.’ According to Finn, these plans fit ‘together in a broader strategy of adapting to the change in the industry and in some cases driving the change in the industry.’ Finn told Barron’s that, ‘[o]ver time as our infrastructure develops, we’ll be able to do more with the blending of the traditional finance, or tradfi, and decentralized finance, or defi, ecosystems.’ Barron’s writes, ‘[t]hat could mean borrowing against crypto holdings to buy equities, or vice versa, for example, or making loans against crypto from cold storage…’ The vision shared by Finn closely resembles that described by BlackRock (NYSE: BLK) CEO Larry Fink in October. Fink described envisioning ‘a future where investors never need to leave a digital wallet to allocate efficiently across crypto, stablecoin and exposures to long-term stocks and bonds.’ In an earnings call, Fink discussed ‘commercial opportunities in using tokenization to further bridge the gap between traditional capital markets and the growing digital asset space.’ According to tokenization data platform RWA.xyz, the value of real-world tokenized assets, excluding stablecoins, began 2025 with a value of USD 5.93B. The value currently stands at USD 19.29B, representing a 225% increase. Takeaway: The institutional embrace of BTC and the broader digital asset space has been a well-covered theme in this note. However, Morgan Stanley’s crypto ambitions underscore that Fink’s vision of blurring the previously well-defined divide between traditional markets and crypto is not in isolation. Furthermore, it should be noted that Morgan Stanley’s decision to launch crypto ETFs comes two years following the launch of spot BTC ETF that have to date accumulated 7% of the asset’s supply. The planned ETFs highlights the view Morgan Stanley expects demand for crypto via ETFs to continue into the future.

From today's '24 Hrs in Crypto:' In this AM’s note we compare leverage & risk appetite in the crypto space between 2024 & 2025 Subscribe & read the full note: frnt.substack.com/p/comparing-ri… Core leverage metrics indicate benign dynamics in 2025 compared to 2024: During the two years, the highest average daily BTC perp rate on Deribit was 71.73%, recorded in March 2024. This level was achieved on the back of strong US BTC ETF inflows, which had surprised many market commentators in their magnitude, and the asset breaking above its 2021 record high. BTC perp rates spiked again at the end of 2024, reaching 68.20% in December when BTC broke the psychologically significant price of USD 100,000 on the back of President Trump’s election win. Overall, BTC perp rates on Deribit averaged 10.24% in 2024, compared to 5.38% in 2025. Last year, the metric peaked early in the year, reaching 61.49% in January 2025. However, this January peak was more a spill-over from the year prior given that leverage dynamics in 2025 largely failed to materialize in the manner they did in 2024; outside of January, BTC perp rates on Deribit peaked in August, reaching 36.09%. Rolling BTC basis corroborates this view, with the metric reaching 33.94% in March 2024 and remaining below 10% for most of 2025. ETH perp rates on Deribit followed a relatively similar pattern, averaging 8.20% in 2024 and just 0.85% last year. It is also worth noting that perp rates in 2024 remained well below levels seen in 2021, when BTC and ETH rates on Deribit reached 190.25% and 184.88%, respectively. Memecoins reached a record high market cap of 127.26B in December 2024: Memecoins emerged as the most retail-driven and speculative subsector of the crypto space in 2024. While estimates vary from source to source, CoinMarketCap.com shows the aggregate memecoin market cap reaching a record high in December 2024. Since then, the aggregate memecoin market cap has seen a decline of ~65%, reaching a current USD 44.19B. In December 2024, we described memecoins as ‘as an early candidate for this cycle’s ‘craze,’ similar to NFTs in 2021.’ However, memecoins in 2024 never reached the same magnitude of ‘craze’ as compared to NFTs. Google searches for ‘NFT’ in 2021 were magnitudes greater than recent all-time high searches for ‘memecoin’ or ‘memecoins.’ The fizzling out of memecoins in late 2024 corroborates the limited demand for retail-driven risk and excess in 2025. Google searches for key crypto terms show mixed results when compared 2024 to 2025, but remain significantly below levels seen in 2021: Google search volumes for crypto key words are often cited as a proxy for retail interest in digital assets. In turn, retail trading is often associated with the demand for leverage. In 2024, global Google searches for ‘bitcoin’ reached a record high in November. In 2025, searches peaked in November as well, corresponding to BTC’s sell-off to USD ~80,000. Google searches for ‘crypto’ reached their highest level in 2024 and 2025 in August of last year. This spike corresponds to the SEC announcing ‘Project Crypto,’ a widespread regulatory effort to ‘enable America’s financial markets to move on-chain.’ While search volumes for ‘crypto’ and ‘bitcoin’ varied in timing in 2024 and 2025, both remained below levels seen in 2021. Google searches for BTC in November 2021, for instance, were 65% of levels seen in 2021.

From today's '24 Hrs in Crypto:' With BTC approaching the start of 2026 down 13% year-over-year, we examine possible catalysts for the asset in the coming year Subscribe & read the full note: frnt.substack.com/p/btcs-potenti… A definitive break from the ‘four-year’ cycle: This week we wrote that belief in the ‘four-year cycle’ theory – which postulates that crypto has followed a boom-and-bust cycle that some attribute to BTC halvings – could be contributing to crypto’s weakness. As we noted, the theory could be causing some investors to sell their BTC in anticipation of a sharp pull-back, aligning with prior historical precedent. However, many believe that this boom-bust pattern to crypto markets has been fundamentally broken. This is due to a number of reasons, including ETF investors’ seeming continued ability to overlook BTC’s short-term volatility. In November, when BTC traded to as low as USD 80,000 Bloomberg ETF specialist Eric Balchunas pointed out, ‘Boomers hanging tough w/ 96.5% of aum sticking w/ it. I was bullish their holding ability but even I’m impressed as 30% drawdown is no joke, not to mention the media trying to scare the crap out of them.’ Holding nearly 7% of BTC’s supply, according to some commentators, ETF investors may be dampening the asset’s propensity for sharp declines. Other factors contributing to a break from the four year cycle include the growing participation of ‘long only’ investors, as BlackRock (NYSE: BLK) CEO Larry Fink recently observed. Renewed demand from US spot ETFs: In November BTC ETFs recorded their largest monthly outflow, USD 3.53B. Having said that, the products have proven to be go-to for a new type of BTC investors participating in crypto. Examples of sovereign wealth funds investing in BTC via BlackRock’s IBIT include Mubadala, the Abu Dhabi Investment Council and Luxembourg’s Intergenerational Sovereign Wealth Fund (FSIL). Along with sovereign wealth funds, who Larry Fink described as ‘adding incrementally,’ other institutions are allocating to BTC via the ETFs, including examples such as the Harvard Endowment. Moreover, access to BTC ETFs is still in early stages despite their launch in January 2024. Vanguard, ‘the world’s second-largest asset manager,’ decided to allow access to crypto ETFs only at the start of the month. Vanguard’s decision came on the back of Morgan Stanley enabling financial advisors and clients to allocate to digital assets, and Bank of America now endorsing a 1%–4% allocation to digital assets across its Merrill, Bank of America Private Bank, and Merrill Edge platforms in response to growing client demand. These dynamics signal that demand for ETF can expand in 2026 given significant steps towards expanding accessibility in late 2025. The ‘debasement trade:’ In October, JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) described the increasingly popular ‘debasement trade’ among retail investors; the trade reflects growing concerns over themes such as currency debasement, political tensions, geopolitical risk, and is seen as contributing to the performance of BTC and gold.’ Considering persistent global macro anxiety, sustained geopolitical uncertainty, BTC’s ‘safe haven’ qualities are likely to continue to be attractive in 2026. Adding to this dynamic is the expected appointment of a Fed Chair by Trump who is likely to implement the President’s wishes for lower rates. Macro conditions for BTC adoption by new investors appear set to continue in 2026. Today's top headlines: • Michael Selig and Travis Hill have been confirmed by the US Senate as chairmen of the CFTC and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., respectively. • Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE) is negotiating an investment in MoonPay, potentially valuing the crypto payments company at USD 5B. • Ripple took a minority stake in TJM Investments and will support the broker-dealer’s trading and clearing operations, aiming to expand institutional digital asset services. • WhiteFiber (NASDAQ: WYFI) announced its subsidiary Enovum Data Centers has signed a 10-year, USD 865M colocation agreement with Nscale Global Holdings for 40 MW.

From this AM's '24 Hrs in Crypto:' @binance , which had been under global regulatory scrutiny virtually since launch, has been a significant beneficiary of the Trump Administration’s crypto’s regulatory reprieve - Binance has emerged as a notable partner for emerging market nations’ digital asset strategies Subscribe & read the the full note: frnt.substack.com/p/binance-acti… Binance’s legal scrutiny came to a head in early 2024 when the exchange agreed to pay a USD 4.3B penalty, while founder and former CEO @cz_binance Changpeng Zhao plead guilty to a range of charges and served four months in prison in 2024. However, under the Trump Administration’s rapprochement with the crypto industry, the SEC dismissed charges against Binance in May 2025. In October, President Trump pardoned Zhao, who was born in China and holds Canadian citizenship, with some news outlets reporting he could return to lead Binance. Binance, measured via trading volume, is the world’s largest exchange. For context, Binance’s BTC/USDt spot market saw USDt 1.02B in volume over the past 24 hours, compared to USD 447M for Coinbase’s BTC/USD pair. Binance is also known for its extensive asset offering, the exchange currently lists 712 unique coins, compared to 427 on Coinbase. The exchange was also the first to launch an ‘exchange token,’ BNB, and the first to launch its own blockchain network, BNB Chain. Binance continues to play a crucial role in the proliferation of stablecoins. The exchange holds USDt 37B, or ~20% of the stablecoin’s market cap. Besides offering US dollar exposure to emerging markets, Binance also offers exposure to tokenized gold. Binance is the largest market for Paxos’ tokenized gold product, PAXG. More recently, Binance has begun working with governments of emerging market nations on the development of national digital asset strategies. Over the weekend, news broke that Pakistan’s finance ministry has signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding with Binance to explore tokenizing up to USD 2B in state-owned assets. In April, Binance founder Changpeng Zhao was appointed as a strategic adviser to the PCC. Local news reported that Zhao held meetings with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar. In September, Kazakhstan launched the Alem Crypto Fund, the country’s first state-backed crypto fund. The fund’s first allocation was made to BNB with Binance Kazakhstan acting as a strategic advisor. In October Kyrgyzstan launched ‘a national stablecoin and a central bank digital currency in partnership with cryptocurrency exchange Binance.’ Changpeng Zhao, the founder of Binance, was appointed as an adviser on digital assets to the country’s president in May. Takeaway: Under the Trump Administration, the crypto space has enjoyed a strategic alignment with US national interests, namely creating new demand for US debt via stablecoins. Binance has benefited from the regulatory reprieve brought on by this alignment. Given Binance’s active role in developing crypto strategies around the globe, the reprieve the exchange has enjoyed specifically is a net positive for the entire digital asset space. • The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) gave conditional approval for national trust bank charters to five cryptocurrency firms. • Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) acquired 10,645 BTC for USD ~980.3M. • Interactive Brokers Group Inc. (NASDAQ: IBKR) is allowing select US retail investors to fund brokerage accounts with stablecoins, with broader access to follow. • The UK Treasury announced that existing financial regulations will apply to crypto companies starting in 2027, following proposed draft legislation released in April.

From today's '24 Hrs in Crypto:' Gelephu Mindfulness City (GMC), a newly established ‘Special Administrative Region (SAR)’ in the Kingdom of Bhutan, has announced ‘the world’s 1st sovereign-backed, physical gold-backed digital token’ - The move comes days following Kyrgyzstan launching a similar product Read and subscribe to the full note: frnt.substack.com/p/bhutan-and-k… According to a Facebook post from GMC the token will debut on December 17, the nation’s national day. The token, dubbed TER and issued on Solana, represents physical gold custodied by GMC. In ‘Phase 1,’ investors will be able to purchase TER via DK Bank, described as ‘Bhutan’s leading digital-first bank.’ Singapore-based Matrixdock, the issuer of the third largest tokenized gold product XAUM, ‘will provide tokenisation technology.’ GMC’s announcement points out that ‘Bhutan continues to redefine digital sovereignty through major milestones’ and lists GMC integrating BTC, ETH, BNB, and other digital assets into its ‘strategic reserves,’ ‘[a]nchoring the national digital identity system on Ethereum,’ and ‘[b]ecoming one of the earliest nations to mine BTC using renewable hydropower, establishing itself among the world’s leading sovereign BTC holders.’ This week, Kyrgyzstan also launched a tokenized gold product, Gold dollar (USDKG). The token’s issuer is OJSC Virtual Asset Issuer, a state-owned entity under the Ministry of Finance. The token is issued on Tron and audited by Consensys Diligence. OJSC Virtual Asset Issuer operates within a legal framework established by the 2022 Law on Virtual Assets of the Kyrgyz Republic. USDKG is described as a ‘USDKG is a 1:1 USD-pegged, gold-backed stablecoin.’ Gold Dollar, a private company based in Kyrgyzstan is described as the ‘project’s operator.’ The token’s launch ceremony included Sadyr Japarov, President of Kyrgyzstan, and Almaz Baketaev, Minister of Finance. In October Kyrgyzstan launched ‘a national stablecoin and a central bank digital currency in partnership with cryptocurrency exchange Binance.’ Changpeng Zhao, the founder of Binance, was appointed as an adviser on digital assets to the country’s president in May. Takeaway: Over the past year, mindshare in the crypto space has largely been dominated by the US’ embrace of BTC and digital assets. US regulators have undertaken unprecedented steps to integrate the digital asset space with the broader economy. Financial leaders like Larry Fink alongside regulators like SEC Chairman Paul Atkins have repeated visions of a future financial system relying on blockchain technology. The Bhutan and Kyrgyzstan tokenized gold products, however, underscore that emerging markets, often overlooked as players in global finance, also view crypto and their associated networks as emerging opportunities. Via crypto, these countries are able to participate in new capital markets in a manner that would have been difficult to achieve via traditional infrastructure. USDKG’s website, for instance, indicates that the token can be integrated into ‘decentralized finance platforms as collateral for derivatives, lending, and other protocols.’ Crypto is offering emerging markets a new avenue for participating in global capital markets. Today's top headlines: • The SEC has granted DTCC permission to offer tokenization services for select US securities on pre-approved blockchains for three years. • Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) and Standard Chartered (LSE: STAN) are partnering to offer institutional clients crypto trading, custody, staking, and lending. • Do Kwon, co-founder of Terraform Labs, was sentenced to 15 years in prison by a US judge for fraud related to the collapse of the Terra (LUNA) and TerraUSD (UST) project. • Non-custodial browser wallet Phantom has partnered with Kalshi to introduce Phantom Prediction Markets.

From today's '24 hrs in Crypto:' In this AM’s note, we discuss BTC market dynamics in light of yesterday’s US Fed rate decision Subscribe & read the full note: frnt.substack.com/p/btc-market-d… BTC has rallied under both hawkish & dovish Fed regimes: Some BTC sceptics attributed the asset’s 2021 performance to the unprecedented global monetary measures that emerged as a response to the COVID-19 crisis. However, BTC’s recovery from 2023 lows of USD ~16,000 to new at-the-time highs of USD ~73,300 in March 2024 occurred against a backdrop of a hawkish Fed focused on inflation. In fact, the Fed began its post-COVID easing cycle in September 2024, some six months following BTC topping its 2021 high. BTC’s 2024 rally was driven by immense – and to some surprising – appetite from US BTC ETFs, which began trading in January of that year and portended the institutional adoption playing out presently. Following March 2020 emergency rate cuts, it took BTC ~10 months to break out above its 2017 record high of USD ~20,000: In March 2020, the Fed’s emergency rate cut came following the crypto space’s sell-off, along with broader risk assets in light of the emerging COVID-19 crisis. Following the Fed’s emergency cut, we wrote that if BTC ‘was born of any concern, it was an abuse of Central Bank balance sheets and financial censorship from governments.’ In 2020, however, BTC’s function as a hedge against inflation or a ‘safe haven’ was a fringe view among traditional market practitioners. Paul Tudor Jones’ seminal endorsement of BTC’s safe haven qualities in his May 2020 essay ‘The Great Monetary Inflation’ was a key event, but a significant outlier compared to mainstream sentiment. In 2025, the view that BTC offers insolation from monetary policy is no longer fringe but an official stance in the Trump Administration and a growing list of governments around the world. Crypto-native risk appetite has been tepid since Fed began easing in September 2024: Since the September cuts, the highest average daily BTC perp was achieved in December 2024, 68%. This is compared to the highest level of 185% achieved in 2021. In this context, the crypto market does not exhibit the elevated risk appetite that characterized the ‘top’ of the 2021 market. Additionally corroborating this view are data points such as depressed Google searches for crypto topics in 2025. Searches for ‘bitcoin’ are down 77% since 2021. In this context, crypto heads into 2026, when Trump will appoint a new Fed Chair who is expected to further ease rates, with leverage remaining cheap. 42% of BTC’s supply has not moved for three or more years: This metric, which hit a record 47% in May 2024, has only edged down to 42% despite BTC rising ~86% between May 2024 and October 2025, when it reached all-time highs. The share of long-dormant coins is widely used as a proxy for the HODL strategy, reflecting holders’ willingness to ignore short-term volatility in favour of a long-term view of BTC’s role in the global economy. With institutional and sovereign adoption increasing and the macro backdrop broadly aligning with long-time BTC proponents’ expectations, it is unsurprising that outflows from this cohort remain limited. For these holders, near-term factors such as interest-rate moves have little influence on BTC’s perceived long-run trajectory as a global safe-haven asset. Today's top headlines: • Satsuma Technology (LSE: SATS) sold 579 BTC for USD ~53.2M, reducing holdings to 620 BTC and increasing cash reserves to around GBP 90M. • The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority identified enabling local firms to trial stablecoin payments and finalizing digital asset regulations as 2026 priorities. • Bhutan introduced TER, a Solana-based token backed by physical gold, issued via Gelephu Mindfulness City and custodied by DK Bank, as part of its blockchain strategy. • Mexico’s central bank stated it will maintain distance between digital assets and the country’s financial system.

From this AM's '24 Hrs in Crypto:' $ETH is down ~8% year-over-year during a period in which the network & asset have enjoyed numerous tailwinds, including a significant reduction in regulatory overhang - We review select ETH narratives & market dynamics in this AM’s note Subscribe and read the full note: frnt.substack.com/p/reviewing-et… ETH is the undisputed leader in on-chain markets: At the moment, there is USD 124.16B worth of crypto (total value locked, TVL) deployed across multiple networks’ DeFi markets. Ethereum accounts for USD 72.22B worth of the total TVL, or 62%. The remaining TVL is fragmented across numerous other blockchain networks, such as Solana, which hosts just 7% or BNB Chain with 6%. Ethereum also hosts the majority of the USD 308B stablecoin market, with 54% of all blockchain-based dollars. Similarly to DeFi TVL, the remaining stablecoins are fragmented across numerous networks. TRON is a distant second, hosting 26% of stablecoins. Less than two years ago Ethereum was being investigated by the SEC, now the network is aligned with US national interests: In March 2024 CoinDesk and Fortune revealed that the SEC was ‘waging an energetic legal campaign to classify Ethereum… as a security.’ Fast forward to 2025, the SEC under the Trump Administration has implemented a ‘Commission-wide initiative to modernize the securities rules and regulations to enable America’s financial markets to move on-chain.’ Moreover, the US Government has begun to see stablecoins as a new, crucial, source of demand for US debt. Given Ethereum’s outsized role as the dominant infrastructure hosting this debt, the network is now highly aligned with US economic interests. It’s difficult to overstate the regulatory turn-around that the entire Ethereum ecosystem has enjoyed in 2025. The number of digital assets tracked by CoinMarketCap.com has grown 4x since Trump took office: The day following Trump’s inauguration in January the number of digital assets tracked by CoinMarketCap.com stood at just over 7M. This number has since ballooned to 28.16M. This trend has largely been driven by the aforementioned regulatory reprieve. High profile crypto projects have confirmed plans to launch tokens, such as MetaMask, one of the most popular crypto wallets. Coinbase’s (NASDAQ: COIN) Ethereum layer-2 Base may also receive a native token, according to Jesse Pollak, who leads the network’s development. The practical effect of this dynamic is the expansion of the universe of investable digital assets that offer exposure to many of the defining narratives of 2025, such as stablecoins, tokenization, etc. The Ethereum Foundation plans to ‘roll out hard forks on an accelerated twice-a-year cadence:’ Last week the Ethereum network successfully underwent a hard fork upgrade, dubbed Fusaka. The upgrade aims to better facilitate interaction between Ethereum and its growing layer-2 ecosystem. The Ethereum foundation plans to implement two upgrades per year. While frequent upgrades help Ethereum achieve goals such as increasing throughput capacity, they introduce the risk of passing critical bugs into the network’s code. Ethereum’s growing complexity vis-a-vis its layer-2 ecosystem additionally heightens the risk of technical issues associated with upgrades. Today's top headlines: • President Donald Trump’s branded memecoin, down 87% since launch, will be used in a new mobile game as a revival effort by promoter Bill Zanker. • The Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund (NYSE Arca: BITW) began trading yesterday, becoming the second US-listed multi-asset crypto index fund. • KindlyMD (NASDAQ: NAKA) agreed to borrow USD 210M from Kraken to repay an Antalpha Digital loan originally used to repay a Two Prime Lending credit line • Toronto-based Pineapple Financial (NYSEAMERICAN: PAPL) launched a mortgage tokenization platform, converting over 1,200 mortgage files worth approximately USD 412M on-chain using the Injective blockchain.

From today's '24 Hrs in Crypto:' The proportion of BTC’s supply on exchanges has reached its lowest level since November 2018, a dynamic underscoring an evolving BTC market - Nevertheless, individual holders continue to hold the largest proportion of the asset’s supply, 65.9% according to estimates Subscribe to the full note: frnt.substack.com/p/btcs-evolvin… According to data from Glassnode, which tracks 27 of the leading crypto exchanges, these venues collectively hold just under 15% of BTC’s total supply. Since BTC’s earliest days, circa 2013, this metric rose from below 1% to ~18% in March 2020. This seven year period was characterized by the emergence of more robust crypto trading venues like Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) and Bitfinex, both founded in 2012, and Binance, founded in 2017. During the 2020 crypto bear market this metric retracted to ~15.50% before rising to record highs during the 2021/2022 bull market. The metric saw a dramatic decline, by ~2%, in the wake of the FTX collapse as crypto traders pulled assets from venues over solvency concerns. Google searches for ‘ledger wallet’ reached a record high as the advantages of self-custody were underscored following the collapse. As counterparty anxiety in the crypto space dissipated, the metric rebounded but then continued to decline since July 2024. The proportion of BTC held on exchanges has fluctuated over the past decade due to a number of factors, including solvency fears, profit taking, and the proliferation of self-custody. However, over the past ~1.5 years the metric has increasingly been impacted by a new cohort of BTC investors. Global public traded companies now hold 5.32% of the asset’s supply, up from 2.60% one year ago. Additionally, US BTC ETFs have accumulated 6.56% of the asset’s supply since launching in January 2024. Earlier this month, we described ‘a new investor type embracing the asset,’ pointing to allocations to BTC by actors such as the Czech National Bank (CNB) and the Harvard Endowment. These allocations, along with headlines such as JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) introducing a structured note linked to BlackRock’s BTC ETF (NASDAQ: IBIT), underscore the distribution of BTC’s supply to actors that had never previously held the asset. Despite this redistribution of BTC due to the asset’s growing integration with the traditional global economy, estimates indicated individuals continue to hold the vast majority of the asset’s supply. For instance, according to recent research from @bitwise, individuals hold 65.9% of BTC. Takeaway: There are numerous angles from which to analyze BTC’s distribution. Firstly, the data underscores the earliness of institutional BTC adoption. While examples such as the CNB and the Harvard Endowment highlight a ‘new investor type embracing the asset,’ in earnest these allocations represent small redistributions of BTC’s supply. Additionally, the heavy skew of BTC ownership towards individuals supports the asset’s ‘safe haven’ qualities, with no single actor positioned to exercise outsized influence over the asset’s circulating supply. Finally, the distribution highlights that the benefits of BTC price appreciation will continue to accrue mostly to individual holders. Today's top headlines: • The UK has proposed a new tax framework that would defer capital gains taxes for DeFi lending and liquidity pool users until their underlying tokens are sold. • KuCoin EU has received a MiCA license from Austria’s Financial Market Authority, enabling it to operate in 29 European Economic Area countries, excluding Malta. • Switzerland will embed the Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework (CARF) into law on January 1, 2026, but will delay implementation of automatic crypto tax data sharing with overseas agencies until at least 2027. • Turkmenistan has approved a law set to regulate its cryptocurrency industry from 2026, establishing strict licensing, know-your-client, and Anti-Money Laundering requirements for exchanges and mining.

From this AM's '24 Hrs in Crypto:' A Tuesday article from the FT describes @tether as a ‘gold whale’ due to the stablecoin issuer becoming ‘the largest holder of gold outside central banks’ - We provide key highlights from Tether’s strategy as it relates to the precious metal Read the full note: frnt.substack.com/p/examining-te… Tether is ‘the largest holder of gold outside central banks’, Jefferies writes: According to Tether’s Q3 ‘Attestation Report,’ the company holds USD 12.9B worth of gold. FT points out that, according to Jeffries, with 116 tonnes of gold, Tether is now the largest holder of the precious metal outside of central banks. FT points out that ‘[m]ore important than the size of the hoard to the gold price is the pace of recent buying.’ Tether purchased 50 tonnes of gold, more than half of its total holdings, in Q2 and Q3 of 2025. According to Jeffries, Tether’s gold purchases are likely to have ‘tightened supply in the short-term and influenced sentiment, which in turn may have driven speculative flows.’ According to Jeffries, citing ‘conversations with investors,’ Tether intends to acquire 100 tonnes of gold in 2025. ‘Jefferies’ team thinks Tether is betting on tokenised physical gold finally catching on:’ To-date, Tether’s Ethereum-based tokenized gold product, XAUt, with a market cap of USD 1.56B, has seen limited traction for crypto standards. Data from Etherscan indicates the token’s supply increased from 375,572 in October to a current 522,089, with each token representing 1 oz of gold vaulted in Switzerland. The issuance of the tokens resulted in a record 9,400 XAUt transfers on the Ethereum blockchain, with blockchain data indicating 16,001 distinct addresses holding the token. Relative to its market cap, XAUt spot trading against USDt has seen reasonable volumes; XAUt’s most active spot market over the past 24 hours was Bybit, where XAUT/USDt saw a trading volume of 39.92M USDt. However, XAUt trading against USD is virtually non-existent (Kraken’s XAUT/USD pair saw a trading volume of USD 86,200 over the past 24 hours). The token’s uptake in DeFi is also scant; only 9.53M XAUt is deposited on DeFi lending platform Aave. Tether has made several investments in gold companies: In September, the FT reported that Tether is considering investments in the gold supply chain, including refining and trading. That month, Tether increased its USD 105M stake in Elemental Altus (TSXV: ELE) by USD 100M, in conjunction with the latter firm’s merger with EMX Royalty Corporation (NYSEAMERICAN | TSXV: EMX). Juan Sartori, head of business initiatives at Tether, told the FT the investment was part of the group’s strategy to increase its ‘gold exposure.’ Gold & BTC represent 7.13% & 5.44% of USDt’s reserves, respectively: According to Tether’s latest attestation, USDt’s 174.44B market cap, as of September 30, was backed by 77.23% in ‘Cash & Cash Equivalents & Other Short-Term Deposits.’ Of these, 93.10% were held in US treasuries and overnight reverse repurchase agreements. The proportion of USDt reserves allocated to gold is 7.13%, which is separate from the bullion backing XAUt. Tether’s total assets, USD 181.22B, exceed total liabilities by USD 6.78B. Over the past year, the stablecoin’s market cap has expanded by USD ~51B to a current record high of USD 184B. Today's top headlines: • Nasdaq has requested approval from the SEC to raise the daily trading limit for options on BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (NASDAQ: IBIT) from 250,000 to 1M contracts • S&P Global Ratings issued a warning that Tether’s USDt could become undercollateralized and lose its US dollar peg due to reserve asset declines and transparency concerns. • A report from House Judiciary Committee Democrats claims President Donald Trump and his family gained hundreds of millions from crypto ventures, alleging exploitation of political power. • Ripple’s dollar stablecoin RLUSD has been recognized as an Accepted Fiat-Referenced Token by Abu Dhabi’s FSRA, allowing use in the ADGM.

From this AM's '24 Hrs in Crypto:' According to BTC mining data platform Hashrate Index, Chinese miners account for 14% of the global hash rate, ranking third behind the US & Russia - The BTC hash rate, a measure of the computing power devoted to mining, recorded a new record high in late October Subscribe to the full note: frnt.substack.com/p/btc-mining-r… Between May and July 2021, the hash rate fell by ~65% as the Chinese government placed further restrictions on crypto-related activities, including mining (the drop in hash rate was likely exacerbated by a ~40% decline in the price of BTC during this period.) However, reporting on Hashrate Index’s data showing China as third-ranked in contribution to the hash rate, Reuters writes: ‘[BTC] mining is quietly staging a comeback in China despite being banned four years ago, as individual and corporate miners exploit cheap electricity and a data center boom in some energy-rich provinces, according to miners and industry data.’ According to a ‘private miner’ interviewed by Reuters, cheap energy cannot be transmitted out of the region of Xinjiang, ‘so you consume it in the form of crypto mining.’ According to the miner, ‘[n]ew mining projects are under construction.’ Reuters also points out that according to company filings, mining hardware producer Canaan (NASDAQ: CAN) ‘generated 30.3% of its global revenues in China last year, compared with 2.8% in 2022 in the aftermath of the crackdown…’ Hashrate Index data shows US miners leading global hash rate with a 38% share, followed by Russia at 16%. Other notable jurisdictions include Paraguay (4%), Canada (3%), Kazakhstan (2%), UAE (3%), Oman (3%), Ethiopia (2%) and Indonesia (2%). The BTC hash rate has expanded by ~2,318% since the start of 2018 and ~16% since the start of the year. At the beginning of October, we noted that ‘BTC’s growing hash rate has increased the asset’s safe haven attributes.’ BTC’s hash rate is spread across an increasingly diverse set of jurisdictions, geographies. Miners themselves are an increasingly diverse group of actors, relying on a wide array of energy sources, ensuring that local disruptions cannot affect the global function of the BTC network. BTC’s distribution among politically unaligned nations also ensures that efforts to collude to censor the network remain exceedingly difficult. This fundamental expansion of BTC’s ability to act as a global safe haven asset comes with increasing mainstream recognition of this attribute. BlackRock (NYSE: BLK) CEO Larry Fink has emerged as a notable advocate of BTC’s safe haven attributes. Most recently, speaking at the Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit in Hong Kong this month, hosted by the city’s Monetary Authority, Fink described gold and BTC as ‘assets of fear.’ According to Fink, ‘you own these instruments if you are frightened of the debasement of your currency, you own it if you have financial insecurity…’ Takeaway: For BTC proponents, the emergence of mining in China underscores the difficulty of censoring or banning the network. In addition to this interpretation, the growing hash rate underscores that the asset’s ability to act as a safe haven asset is not just gaining broader mainstream recognition, but is also fundamentally expanding. Today's top headlines: • The European Central Bank (ECB) released a report warning that significant stablecoin growth could create ‘spillover risk.’ • The first DOGE ETF under the 1933 Act, issued by Grayscale, is set to debut today. • Enlivex Therapeutics (NASDAQ: ENLV) plans to raise USD 212M through a PIPE to build a Rain token digital asset treasury. • Revolut achieved a USD 75B valuation through a secondary share sale led by Coatue, Fidelity, Dragoneer and Greenoaks.