FXwithQ

@Alhambralnvest People “feel” acceleration, not velocity. It’s hard to stay sober in the face of such incredible shifts in sentiment. The best way is to imagine the small sample space ABOVE those optimistic CBO projections. VERY low margin for error.

What Did Everyone Think Was Going To Happen? alhambrapartners.com/2020/06/05/wha…

It's a retail investor trading orgy. The number of accounts, trading activity, and options speculation has never been higher among the bored-at-home-wearing-sweatpants crowd.

@TenYearNote So on aggregate, the CRA system is working as intended. Also is evidence that differing debt-carrying costs are creating winners and losers

@AWMCheung Anthony, do you think this is long-term call regarding interest rates?

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has dumped the bulk of the stake in Goldman Sachs that it acquired in the depths of the financial crisis. Was more than 10mln shares, a holding that was worth $2.3bn at the end of last year and represented 2.9% of the investment bank

@JohnKicklighter Interesting that they are a SWAP+ country with relation to Fed’s international facility

Many emerging market currency-Dollar crosses are easing back from their multi-year or record lows (for the EEM ccy), but $USDBRL (Brazilian Real) keeps climbing

@Alhambralnvest Consider the converse: are there any who gain from the deflationary outcome you predict?

Everyone Knows The Gov’t Wants A ‘Controlled’ Weimar alhambrapartners.com/2020/05/06/eve…

@JohnKicklighter They are very much supported by China. Perhaps a CNH weakness proxy?

$USDTRY tagged a fresh record high intraday this past session. More risk aversion pressure recently than Real, Rand and Peso

Sometimes I feel they leak updates on the US-China negotiations that reverse course multiple times purely for the drama. I'm surprised the market still takes the bait at this point, but I guess the economic implications are too clear and great to ignore

Profits, Trading Plunge At World's 3rd Largest Exchange As Hong Kong Chaos Spreads zerohedge.com/markets/hong-k…

@JohnKicklighter It was a beat but I’m not sure about the break above with conviction given delays in US-China resolution

Let's see if the Australian trade balance data later tonight can shake loose the $AUDUSD. I still think it would be most effective if we could get a shove towards 'path of least resistance'

What has changed in the last 24 hours 1) China turns down request to sign deal in Brazil 2) China turns down request to sign deal in Iowa 3) Phase 1 pushed to dec at earliest 4) Usd seasonal demand across the board , USDCNH +200 points 5) Hawkish rhetoric from Chinese media

There is a lot of chatter of USD rallying if Fed moves to pause(after today's cut), there is less than 25% chance of Dec cut priced in at the moment. The first full cut is priced in for next year only. So we do not buy into this narrative.

Killing and ruining things. Business is still booming.

(Asia Pacific AM Briefing) Yen May Fall as Australian Dollar Gains, AUD/JPY Breakout Prolongs #AUD #JPY $AUDJPY - dailyfx.com/forex/fundamen…

@macroguru9 The timing makes sense as this was the real inflection point in the trade negotiations. Very solid developments since Thursday Oct. 10

We have compiled data from a bunch of retail brokers, seems like AUD longs (for retail) are at the lowest since the 2nd week of September and retail has been adding shorts since last week.

@I_Am_ICT The surprising thing for me is the stability of XAG and XAU. Metals are next if the trend continues