@Andre_AGTC Naive question on LEAPS. You wait to execute the leaps in Jan 27, or you sell them after Q3 readout in HS?
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Iván Castela
2K posts
Iván Castela
@FaberCastel_
PhD Neuroscience | Life Science VC | Pharma BD | Biotech Investor
Spain Katılım Mart 2013
850 Takip Edilen196 Takipçiler
$ZURA
Good move today. Catalysts are in q3 and q4 so quite early for a data run up
But 52w high is nice end of 2025
Bunch of Mar 2.5 calls. Waiting for Jan 2027 calls to roll them over
Andre-ACGT@Andre_AGTC
$ZURA Anti-BAFF + IL-17 We know that IL-17 works so adding BAFF is a twist Two ph2 trails - in Systemic Sclerosis and HS Currently small position but going to build it slowly for the readouts next year. No rush - dips aways happen
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Quedaba $VKTX...pero ahí va🚀
Ahí está, ahí están las fechas, ahí están los resultados. Pero vosotros, seguid a Pablito Terrores, a Carapato y al Chozas 😘
Ssocialtrading@ssocialtrading
$PLTR es una multibagger $SOFI es una multibagger $RKLB es una multibagger $VKTX es una multibagger $HIMS es una multibagger Ahí queda
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Iván Castela retweetledi
Atlas Venture 2025 Year In Review lifescivc.com/2025/11/atlas-…
Been a tough year to pin down as we went from bearish spring to bullish yea end…
Listening at 1.25x+ speed is definitely recommended, and moves through the nearly 50-minute presentation slightly faster.
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@Andre_AGTC Same for me here. Average is 8.7$, and thinking on adding more today after this data
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$VKTX
The market is teaching us a lesson and sometimes the tuition fee is steep.
Andre-ACGT@Andre_AGTC
$VKTX We all jinxed this stock with higher expectations Today some have field day celebrating the loss for many on Twitter. Unfortunately Twitter is packed with mean people hiding behind the anonymity on the platform. Disgusting @A_May_MD
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@ilzizzo Today was the day I was waiting for… thinking to add a bit here just to try to recover my losses
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$VKTX short interest unchanged at 26 days to cover now into the 5's off exchange has risen dramatically to 57 this is now moving towards a squeeze days to cover gets into the single digits look out.. this could pull a Puma Biotech from the 2000s
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@ssocialtrading Me pasó lo mismo en $VKTX… dura lección para aprender a vender
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llegaron NUNCA a ser administradas. Era evidente, cómo iban a hacerle eso a Moderna o a Pfizer Biontech. Pues así, hasta que Hugo de Lince investors no me abrió los ojos, no vendí...de 300 a 120-90 y 50 dólares. Dura lección. Pero gracias a esa, hoy en día soy menos idiota
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$NVAX fue mi mayor error como inversor. A veces, no vemos las alertas, no vemos las señales ni vemos el enjambre de factores contrario a nuestro análisis inversor. Y ojo, que hubo quien me avisó. Y no fue error por perder dinero, sino por dejar de ganar una fortuna 🧵
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Iván Castela retweetledi
China Out-Licensing Deals YTD 2025 (updated post GSK / Hengrui)
36 deals into major markets for innovative drugs so far, tracking for 63 by year end (vs 57 in 2024).
With over half the year in the books, the patterns are starting to show:
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@ssocialtrading Y todo a SmallCaps? Tengo que hacer deployment de las ganancias de $ABVX
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Con Nasdaq a 24000 venderé como si no hubiera un mañana...queda dicho
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$MTSR Another week and $MTSR continues to climb.
With no discernible news.
And it's up 212% since April 10th 😲
What am I missing?
$VKTX $LLY $NVO $PFE $MRK
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@GermanBiotech @MBbiotech @monaco_biotech It could be that at higher doses you are saturating your main target and activating other cells/mechanisms that could go against efficacy, such as IL2 drugs and other immunomodulators. I agree that MoA is puzzling, but there is need for other safer oral drugs in UC
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@MBbiotech @monaco_biotech Normally, all parameters should show the same dose dependence.
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Should you invest in $ABVX? I have my doubts.
In the fig below from yesterday's call, Abivax is once again misleading investors. A remission rate of 26% is shown for obefazimod (25 mg). Fact is that at 50 mg it was just 17% (Δ 4%).
/1
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@bioinvestor24 @Pharmdca Maybe FDA requirement because of skipping Ph2b?
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Something hidden in protocol we don’t know to increase sample size by more than 1000 pts. This increase by $VKTX is size of 2 phase 3 trials.
For comparison. This trial size is 10x size of all ongoing $MTSR trials combined. Viking probably is the ground of long -short obesity biotech battle and this is partially why volume 10x Metsera or $GPCR
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$VKTX With PH3 trial kicked off, bearish theory of getting delayed died down. Smart strategy by management in trial design making sure safety profile and efficacy stays competitive.
PH2 data- Firmly believe shorts will be crushed when company reports weight loss data.
Chart wise, we see stock moves higher over $30 resistance.
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@anandcpatelmdms @MeadowCapital Taking into account that they skipped Phase 2b and that there are a lot of activities you usually run in parallel with Phase 2a,b (CMC development, chronic tox, regulatory etc), 16 months is quite decent. Just between Phase 2b and 3 there is a minimum of 7months bc of EOP2M...
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@MeadowCapital How fast do you think their registrational phase 3 trials will read out? Also, while 16 months isn’t unusual, it’s a long time in a hypercompetitive space, isn’t it?
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$VKTX Are you telling me that we've waited 16 months between Ph.2 finishing in Feb 2024 and Ph.3 starting in June 2025.
And then we're told "Earliest you'll see the final data will be in 2027."
We're cool with that?
I'm already SO sick of $VKTX shorts and their shenanigans😑
GIF
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@MeadowCapital Take the enrollment time of ph2 sc and n of sites and you get pts/site per month. Then check the number of sites of ph3 and n of patients and calculate the time of enrollment. Add 78w, and you get las patient last visit. Add 4w and you get top line results
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$VKTX Quick time frame check.
📍End of June 25 : Ph.3 trial intiated
📍78 week trial
📍78 weeks from today is Dec 23rd 2026
But we need to factor in patient recruitment. Several months?
📍So Ph.3 data in mid 2027?
How long roughly should recruitment take, anyone know?
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@bioinvestor24 @Viking_VKTX I remember BL saying that they would do a Phase 2b with the oral, but maybe Im mistaken
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For $VKTX oral upcoming phase 3 trial. They will need around 1000 pts only as the SC phase 3 will satisfy FDA toxicity requirement.
If @Viking_VKTX management moves on it , it could initiate in q1 2026 as they know by now all FDA requirements , it is the same molecule and they already negotiated contracts with study sites.
Oral VK2735 would be second after $LLY orfoglipron,
it is a peptide but the same molecule .. will be smooth transition for ones who want to switch from sc to oral maintenance ( although I doubt an auto injector is an issue for vast majority of pts)
Lilly is promoting idea of switch from tirzepatide to orfoglipron, but they are different molecules and you lose GIP for oral .. do pts need to re escalate ?
$NVO $PFE @AlbertBourla
Bioinvestor24@bioinvestor24
$VKTX plans to enroll 4500 pts in obese trial and 1100 in the obese diabetics. Significantly more than FDA requirements of total 4500. Wonder why ? $LLY in comparison enrolled 2539 and 938 pts respectively ? Massive trials .. No wonder why it took few months to start. Also pushing the dose for 17.5 mg. Good strategy “Each study will include an open-label extension allowing participants the opportunity to continue receiving treatment following completion of the primary dosing period.”
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@Andre_AGTC @A_May_MD And here… IGA and EASI90 dont compare to Lebri/Dupi
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$NKTR
good point about alopecia areata
This guy @A_May_MD is absolute authority in NKTR case👍
(a surprise bc he is typically wrong on everything else)
Adam May@A_May_MD
Oh, and another note on $NKTR. This makes their upcoming alopecia areata readout *MUCH* more interesting now that we know for sure this drug is active. There are no biologics approved for that condition *at all*. The data readout is only a few months away, and the upside if it works in that condition (even a little bit) would be significant. This alopecia program was worth absolutely $0 NPV before today, but now it is a super interesting shot on goal. If they hit there, it would be an obviously huge win, because there’s literally no safe injectable drug approved for the disease. Time to start working on that readout! Next few months for $NKTR are packed: ➡️Dapirolizumab royalty? 💰 ➡️$LLY lawsuit settlement? 👨⚖️⚖️ ➡️Alopecia Areata P2 data? 👨🦲
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@Biohazard3737 What is your take on $ABVX? The MoA is still puzzling to me, but the maintainance data is the best so far... What is your bar in the induction period given that other orals (JAKs, S1P1s) have a lot of AEs?
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@seedy19tron @plainyogurt21 Comparable efficacy in the induction setting compared to other approved but more toxic orals (S1P1 and JAKs), and amazing in the maintainance setting. Probably they will raise cash after the induction and anfter the maintainance to start the Phase 3 in CD
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@plainyogurt21 I mean I believe the drug is active. St just seems to think it’s dumb. But considering the large randomise ph2 trial surely impossible for an inactive drug to have a blinded response rate even close to what abivax showed in their ph2 right?
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$ABVX
for those looking at the ABivax story, is the play on induction results next quarter or the maintenance results next year?
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