Nikki

This is honestly a big change for AI development. A few years ago, serious GPU access was limited to expensive hardware, cloud bills, waitlists, or startup credits. That alone kept thousands of talented builders out, @HowToAI_. Now Google is giving free T4 compute directly inside VS Code. That means a student with a laptop can test models, run experiments, improve workflows, and build AI apps from their bedroom without setting up complicated infrastructure. The real story here is that computing is slowly becoming easier for everyone to access. And when computing becomes easier to access, the advantage moves from “who has GPUs” to “who can turn ideas into reality immediately.”

Welcome to the most asymmetric trade in modern financial history. The thread below lays out why. The opportunity exists because capital has chased the AI trade while ignoring the physical assets AI requires to run — assets that have quietly become the best-performing asset class of the decade. Since October 2020 when we first called for the commodity super cycle: QCI Total Return +217%, GSCI Total Return +205%, Gold +140%. NASDAQ trails at +130%. S&P 500 at +85%. The top three are all commodities. Yet oil cannot get out of its own way while copper and the broader atom complex prints fresh highs . That is the dislocation. That is the trade. Get long. Buckle in. Hang on for the ride. Forgive the longer posts in this thread — attempting to mimic my old 10-bullet commodity takes. On to it.

Binance offering crypto users to buy individual stocks is a win! Filipinos who are crypto natives could now go direct without IBKR thru Tokenized stocks :)

The single most reliable trade in software investing is buying the busted, profitable, mid-cycle company that everyone has decided is about to be killed by AI, two years before the market figures out that AI did not, in fact, kill it, and that the company's free cash flow has gone up the entire time the stock was going down. There is, right now, a list of roughly 80 software companies that the market has, in the last 18 months, sold to the floor on the thesis that ChatGPT or Copilot or some unnamed startup with $40 million of seed funding is going to make the entire product category obsolete by 2027. The thesis is wrong. The thesis has always been wrong. The thesis was wrong in 1999 about brick and mortar, wrong in 2007 about newspapers, wrong in 2015 about cable, and it is wrong in 2026 about every category of vertical SaaS, niche enterprise software, and embedded workflow tooling that the AI panic has decided is about to die. These businesses are not dying. These businesses are growing free cash flow. The customers are not switching. The contracts are not being canceled. The renewal rates are 94%. The CEOs are buying back stock at 6x earnings while their former growth-investor shareholders are selling at any price to anyone who will take the position off their hands, because the narrative has flipped, and once the narrative flips, the holders of the stock change, and the new holders are people like you, paying single-digit multiples for businesses that, in any other decade, would have traded at 25x earnings without anyone blinking. You are not buying software. You are buying a narrative arbitrage. The narrative will correct in 24 to 36 months. The cash flow will correct it for you while you wait. This trade has run, in some form, every 7 years since the early 1980s, and it has paid every single time, and it is paying right now, and almost nobody you know is taking it, because taking it requires owning something that everyone at the dinner party has decided is dead, which is the oldest, hardest, and most profitable thing an investor in public equities can ever bring himself to do.

Because we get asked a lot. The Technological Republic, in brief. 1. Silicon Valley owes a moral debt to the country that made its rise possible. The engineering elite of Silicon Valley has an affirmative obligation to participate in the defense of the nation. 2. We must rebel against the tyranny of the apps. Is the iPhone our greatest creative if not crowning achievement as a civilization? The object has changed our lives, but it may also now be limiting and constraining our sense of the possible. 3. Free email is not enough. The decadence of a culture or civilization, and indeed its ruling class, will be forgiven only if that culture is capable of delivering economic growth and security for the public. 4. The limits of soft power, of soaring rhetoric alone, have been exposed. The ability of free and democratic societies to prevail requires something more than moral appeal. It requires hard power, and hard power in this century will be built on software. 5. The question is not whether A.I. weapons will be built; it is who will build them and for what purpose. Our adversaries will not pause to indulge in theatrical debates about the merits of developing technologies with critical military and national security applications. They will proceed. 6. National service should be a universal duty. We should, as a society, seriously consider moving away from an all-volunteer force and only fight the next war if everyone shares in the risk and the cost. 7. If a U.S. Marine asks for a better rifle, we should build it; and the same goes for software. We should as a country be capable of continuing a debate about the appropriateness of military action abroad while remaining unflinching in our commitment to those we have asked to step into harm’s way. 8. Public servants need not be our priests. Any business that compensated its employees in the way that the federal government compensates public servants would struggle to survive. 9. We should show far more grace towards those who have subjected themselves to public life. The eradication of any space for forgiveness—a jettisoning of any tolerance for the complexities and contradictions of the human psyche—may leave us with a cast of characters at the helm we will grow to regret. 10. The psychologization of modern politics is leading us astray. Those who look to the political arena to nourish their soul and sense of self, who rely too heavily on their internal life finding expression in people they may never meet, will be left disappointed. 11. Our society has grown too eager to hasten, and is often gleeful at, the demise of its enemies. The vanquishing of an opponent is a moment to pause, not rejoice. 12. The atomic age is ending. One age of deterrence, the atomic age, is ending, and a new era of deterrence built on A.I. is set to begin. 13. No other country in the history of the world has advanced progressive values more than this one. The United States is far from perfect. But it is easy to forget how much more opportunity exists in this country for those who are not hereditary elites than in any other nation on the planet. 14. American power has made possible an extraordinarily long peace. Too many have forgotten or perhaps take for granted that nearly a century of some version of peace has prevailed in the world without a great power military conflict. At least three generations — billions of people and their children and now grandchildren — have never known a world war. 15. The postwar neutering of Germany and Japan must be undone. The defanging of Germany was an overcorrection for which Europe is now paying a heavy price. A similar and highly theatrical commitment to Japanese pacifism will, if maintained, also threaten to shift the balance of power in Asia. 16. We should applaud those who attempt to build where the market has failed to act. The culture almost snickers at Musk’s interest in grand narrative, as if billionaires ought to simply stay in their lane of enriching themselves . . . . Any curiosity or genuine interest in the value of what he has created is essentially dismissed, or perhaps lurks from beneath a thinly veiled scorn. 17. Silicon Valley must play a role in addressing violent crime. Many politicians across the United States have essentially shrugged when it comes to violent crime, abandoning any serious efforts to address the problem or take on any risk with their constituencies or donors in coming up with solutions and experiments in what should be a desperate bid to save lives. 18. The ruthless exposure of the private lives of public figures drives far too much talent away from government service. The public arena—and the shallow and petty assaults against those who dare to do something other than enrich themselves—has become so unforgiving that the republic is left with a significant roster of ineffectual, empty vessels whose ambition one would forgive if there were any genuine belief structure lurking within. 19. The caution in public life that we unwittingly encourage is corrosive. Those who say nothing wrong often say nothing much at all. 20. The pervasive intolerance of religious belief in certain circles must be resisted. The elite’s intolerance of religious belief is perhaps one of the most telling signs that its political project constitutes a less open intellectual movement than many within it would claim. 21. Some cultures have produced vital advances; others remain dysfunctional and regressive. All cultures are now equal. Criticism and value judgments are forbidden. Yet this new dogma glosses over the fact that certain cultures and indeed subcultures . . . have produced wonders. Others have proven middling, and worse, regressive and harmful. 22. We must resist the shallow temptation of a vacant and hollow pluralism. We, in America and more broadly the West, have for the past half century resisted defining national cultures in the name of inclusivity. But inclusion into what? Excerpts from the #1 New York Times Bestseller The Technological Republic: Hard Power, Soft Belief, and the Future of the West, by Alexander C. Karp & Nicholas W. Zamiska techrepublicbook.com

with the help of Google Gemini, I simply created a simple visualization infographic. a lot of people already know this but its a good reminder nonetheless. If you plant 50K for 60 mos instead of a lump sum 3M, at 10% CAGR 3M = 3.8M in year 5 left untouched 16M in year 15

pardon didnt notice may question pala here. im active realtime on my viber group :) its hard to maintain so many commentaries and copy paste it in so many groups but yes it exists

The U.S. is now fully committed to a "no-turning-back" strategy in Iran, seeking a total regime change and the definitive end of Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. With the reported death of Khamenei, both nations have reached a volatile point of no return. 🇺🇸🇮🇷 #Geopolitics #Iran

We’re heading for the biggest economic shift in centuries. 🌍 By 2035–2040, life will look unrecognizable. Not because of one big crash… …but because of 4 slow, disguised transformations. 🧵 A thread:

Military success is the ultimate advertisement. As Palantir proves it can "win wars" through AI-driven precision, market demand is hitting fever pitch. In a "SaaSpocalypse" world, $PLTR stands alone, with analysts eyeing a rally back toward the 180-200 range. 📈🚀 #EpicFury

Forget "SaaS"—Palantir is becoming the digital nervous system of the modern state. By serving as the "brains of the battlefield" in Operation Epic Fury, $PLTR has moved beyond vendor status to an essential utility for national sovereignty

The more one reflects and thinks about it Software such as Crowdstrike and Cloudflare is infrastructure and AI resistant This selloff will be seen as a gift Just watch and wait this out to find its natural bottom $crwd $net No positions but will look for entries

software-industry Armageddon: Plausible in pockets (some SaaS categories get eaten alive), but not sector-wide extinction. AI is more likely to augment/pressure pricing than fully replace entrenched systems soon.

antidote isn’t panic—it’s resilience engineering: better testing, diversity of vendors, blast-radius limiting, offline fallbacks, and treating software like the critical infrastructure it is

• 2025 incidents — Multiple big eoutages (Cloudflare twice, Starlink global, hyperscaler failures, etc.) showed how middleware, shared cloud infra, and poor change management create correlated failures across unrelated sectors.

This exposed how concentrated risk is in a few vendors/cloud layers.

We’ve seen glimpses: • CrowdStrike 2024 — A single bad update blue-screened ~8.5 million Windows devices worldwide. Airlines, banks, hospitals, and 911 lines got hit. Estimated damage reached billions. It wasn’t malicious, just a defective config.

We live in a world that’s brittle by design—optimized for efficiency, not antifragility. That’s the real justified fear: not apocalypse tomorrow, but repeated painful shocks that erode trust, cost trillions cumulatively, and force painful rewiring.