Faris Rayhan
170 posts
$BTC
Despite the doubt, despite the shit talk, my swing short survived.
Structure is breaking down.
Killa@KillaXBT
$BTC The streak lives, for now. We’re currently at my entry. If you happened to follow me, this is your opportunity to fully exit and either look for a higher re-entry or abandon the bear market thesis altogether. As for me, I’ll be holding the position regardless as its only 50% size. Let the games begin. 🎲
English
JAWAB JUJUR ya bang 🙏🏽
menurut kalian di sini ada ga sih yang berhasil merubah nasib nya dari industri kripto ??
Indonesia
Study how $BTC PA has reacted over the past few years.
Study how nearly every significant weekly resistance gets rejected on the first retest.
Study how major weekly structural areas almost never flip on the first attempt.
You know where we are.
You know what we’re testing for the first time.
The market has a funny way of making people flip bias at the exact moment it’s least appropriate to flip.
Even in bull markets, price forms ranges. It retests levels. It rejects key areas. You don’t get straight impulsive moves without months of consolidation, ranges, and failed breakouts along the way.
This is the market maker way & this is exactly what has been happening for years.
English
Its true.
Every time Zcash has made a major move, it's lined up perfectly with a $BTC top.
Killa@KillaXBT
Its true. Every time Zcash has made a major move, it’s lined up perfectly with a $BTC market top. 4/4 times. A perfect record. Are you really willing to bet against those odds?
English
I’ve decided that I’m going to start sharing more LTF analysis and setups alongside my HTF analysis.
The reason is simple, I actively day trade myself, but up until now I’ve mainly shared HTF ideas because I didn’t want to confuse people with what I’m thinking on the LTF versus the HTF.
That said, I’m hoping you’ll find value in my lower time frame ideas, scenarios, and overall thoughts on where PA could move.
Killa@KillaXBT
I’d look to take some $BTC longs in the 76.3K–74.7K area if Bitcoin retests that range. For now, 78.5K (the weekly open) is the key local level to hold. If that level fails to hold, I’ll be ready to start scaling into longs lower down.
English
BTC this month may 2026 88K
retracement area 84K
juni highest 96K
retracement area 92K
july is the highest around 102 - 104K
English
Every Wednesday at exactly 17:00 UTC, mark the Bitcoin price.
For the last 13 weeks, Bitcoin has traded lower by at least 1% within the next 24 hours.
13 out of 13 times and not once did it fail.
The smallest drawdown was -1.11%
The average drawdown was -2.58%
The median drawdown was -2.40%
The largest drawdown was -3.91%
This week it happened again. Wednesday 17:00 UTC price was $81,452. Next 24h low was $79,500, a -2.4% down.
ethereum:native did the same thing: 13/13
solana:So11111111111111111111111111111111111111112 did the same thing: 13/13
Raw P-Value is 0.000244. In plain English, that is roughly a 1 in 4,096 chance if this was random.
Next Wednesday, mark the price at 17:00 UTC and watch the next 24 hours.
English
bitcoin:native
If price only takes these equal highs and rejects, look for the short there after the daily close.
If it actually breaks above April’s high at $79,485 before May 5, then don’t short immediately and let the breakout buyers chase it first.
Since 2020, whenever price failed to break above April’s high in the first 5 days of May, it resulted in a red month but last year it broke April’s high on May 1, then ran another 16.9% to $111,980 by May 22.
So, its important to see if April high gets reclaimed by Tuesday or not. If $79.5K gets reclaimed, the better short is higher, around $84K-$85K.
Sweep and reject these highs = Short the sweep.
Clean break above April high = Wait for the squeeze into $84K-$85K.
English
Well, that is interesting.
If $BTC reaches 85K, it would break above the 0.618.
Something we rarely see in a strong downtrends.
We’re at a critical point in terms of trend and a move above 85K would stop my swing short out.
I wouldn’t look to short again until there’s a clear shift back.
Kalshi Crypto@Kalshi_Crypto
BREAKING: Our traders forecast Bitcoin will hit $85,000 this month
English
@KillaXBT killa how are you now ? are you fine ?
we miss you
English
$BTC
Its the 5th of May soon.
12/12 times we have seen a inverse narrative movement around the 5th of each month.
This time around, we are seeing a strong bullish narrative.
Will we see the same pattern unfold based on the past year of data?
Killa@KillaXBT
Nobody knows what happens on the 5th of every month. So I will show you, For the past 9 months, you could have countered every bullish/bearish narrative, and been right every single time. Start paying attention. It lines up with the other $BTC pivots I’ve been posting.😉
English
$BTC
My additional entries have been filled at 79500, completing my final DCAs.
In the process, my average from 76K is currently 77.6K.
I won’t be adding further, and my SSL remains unchanged.
It either closes above 84K and invalidates my position, or it reaches my TP. There will be no adjustments.
Killa@KillaXBT
$BTC │ Swing short update. I’m still positioned the same. As mentioned in my previous update, I closed the add at BE to improve my average from 74.6K to 76K. That proved to be a solid decision, as price reacted immediately after tapping my average entry. With it now being the start of May, I’ve already outlined the likelihood of a sweep above the PMO (previous monthly high). This remains the zone where I plan to scale further into the position to continue improving my overall swing entry. Some may ask why I don’t simply wait for clear structure or an ideal point of interest before entering. The reasoning is straightforward, I prefer to build into positions early to avoid being front-run. As a HTF trader, I take a limited number of swing trades, and waiting for perfect entries can often take weeks or even months. I’d rather secure exposure slightly early on a high-conviction idea than risk missing the move entirely. Since my average has improved following the 78K add (as previously noted), I’m now adjusting my soft stop-loss (SSL) from 83K to 84K. I’ll manually close the position if I believe the short thesis has been fully invalidated. This approach is consistent across my HTF positions, scaling in strategically to improve entry while progressively adjusting invalidation levels as the trade develops. So far, all 6 out of 6 swing shorts have played out successfully and delivered great returns. While it’s inevitable that I’ll eventually be wrong, maintaining conviction and discipline is essential. I’m continuing to follow the same system that has allowed me to capture each meaningful swing short to date. Emotionless. 🤟
English