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$BTC Update Caution is warranted when holding long positions for extended periods, as distribution from a limit seller has been observed starting around $77,400. If price manages to accept above this level, it becomes reasonable to monitor rotation back into the Value Area (VA), followed by a potential test of the VAH at $78,340. The market has already tested the previous composite, showing holding and absorption of selling pressure at the candle lows according to Spot Delta data — confirming the presence of local support. Holding higher prices suggests either potential continuation to the upside or ongoing range-bound trading, with rotation inside the local VA of $77,400–$78,340. Structurally, as long as price remains balanced within the HVN range of $76,150–$79,200, the base scenario favors rotational behavior from one boundary to the other, rather than a strong impulsive trend. Invalidation of this scenario would be a breakdown and acceptance below $75,700 without signs of demand. In that case, a shift toward downside expansion is expected, with a potential target near the next demand zone around $73,000. 🔗 TradingView chart (1H): tradingview.com/x/uWXWGC9R/ #BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #CryptoTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #Trading #CryptoMarket #PriceAction #MarketStructure #BTCUSD

$ETH Price positioning above the HTF Value Area (2145–1925) confirms sustained demand and market acceptance of higher prices. In line with the previous scenario, the rotation within the balance has continued, including a sweep of the 2277 swing level. At the moment, price is compressed between seller pressure in the 2375–2300 range and buyer support around 2290, forming a local balance in the premium zone. From a microstructure perspective, the order book depth is overheated on the Ask side, which is typical when trading near the upper range. At the same time, Net OI (long/short) shows no abnormal increase in positions, indicating a lack of overheating and supporting the continuation of a rotational trading environment without clear dominance from either side. 📊 Base scenario: It remains reasonable to continue operating within the balance range. For long positions, it is optimal to wait for a rotation toward the previous Value Area at 2244. If price moves toward the balance VAH (2375), a downward rotation becomes more likely. A confirmed acceptance above VA would shift market positioning and open the potential for further expansion toward the 1M FVG at 2474. 🔗 TradingView chart (1H): tradingview.com/x/410dy2DW/ #Ethereum #ETH #Crypto #CryptoTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #Trading #Altcoins #CryptoMarket #DeFi #PriceAction #TradingStrategy #MarketAnalysis #Web3

$BTC Price continues to hold above the VA range ($71,175–$65,550) following an impulsive move that swept last week’s high, where a clear seller fixation was observed. At the moment, the market is finding support within the HVN zone ($76,480–$75,300). However, this area shows buyer weakness and a lack of sufficient volume to sustain price. From an order flow perspective, the upside target remains at $80,000, but the absence of a strong reaction at current levels increases the probability of a liquidity grab below, particularly toward $71,175. On the daily plan, priority shifts toward searching for short positions from the VAH of the local balance ($78,340). Current support zones — SP $76,860 and HVN $76,480 — allow for a scenario where price moves higher first, followed by a return into balance, potentially leading to a downward expansion. If price declines directly from current levels into the previous composite zone around $76,000, a long scenario becomes viable, targeting a move back into the current balance range. From a macro structure standpoint, long positioning is decreasing, while short interest is increasing, despite the ongoing phase of local accumulation. Increased volatility is expected ahead of the Fed Interest Rate decision, meaning both long and short scenarios are likely to play out quickly and impulsively ⚡️ 🔗 TradingView chart (1H): tradingview.com/x/md4RkEzn/ #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #CryptoTrading #Trading #Forex #CryptoAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #OrderFlow #PriceAction #Investing #CryptoMarket #BTCUSD #Altcoins #CryptoSignals

🌎 This week is one of the most pivotal from a macroeconomic perspective, as markets will receive a full snapshot of the U.S. economy — from housing and manufacturing to inflation and GDP. The central focus will be the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, along with key releases on Core PCE and GDP, which shape expectations for future policy. 📅 Wednesday Building Permits (February), 15:30 Previous: 1.386M Forecast: 1.36M Durable Goods Orders MoM (March) Previous: -1.4% Forecast: 1.3% Fed Interest Rate Decision, 21:00 Previous: 3.75% Forecast: 3.75% 🗣 Fed Press Conference, 21:30 📅 Thursday Core PCE Price Index MoM (March), 15:30 Previous: 0.4% Forecast: 0.3% GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Advance, Q1) Previous: 0.5% Forecast: 1.5% Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 25) Previous: 214K Forecast: 215K 📅 Friday ISM Manufacturing PMI (April), 17:00 Previous: 52.7 Forecast: 52.5 ⚖️ Macro & Policy Context The current situation around the Federal Reserve is gradually moving beyond purely economic considerations into the political sphere. Markets are beginning to price in a potential policy shift amid the rising prominence of Kevin Warsh, implying expectations of a more dovish monetary stance. His inflation framework — particularly the use of Trimmed-Mean CPI — supports a narrative of moderating inflation, which could justify a pause or even rate cuts. At the same time, the real inflation picture appears more complex. Rising energy and commodity prices are creating delayed inflationary pressure that has not yet been fully reflected in current data. This raises the risk that markets may be overly optimistic in their assessment. 💵 Additional support is coming from the U.S. Treasury through active debt buybacks, improving liquidity and easing pressure on yields. Meanwhile, inflation risks are building, and geopolitics continues to exert pressure via energy markets. The Federal Reserve, under Jerome Powell, still maintains control over policy — meaning any divergence between market expectations and the Fed’s actual stance could become a key trigger for a shift in sentiment. #Macro #Economy #FederalReserve #FOMC #Inflation #GDP #Trading #Investing #Markets #Forex #Stocks #Crypto #EconomicData

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#ETH Market Structure Overview $ETH is positioned above the HTF VA ($2145–$1925), establishing active demand and a local uptrend. The price is trading in the premium zone, forming a 2-week composite with a local balance range at VA $2371–$2300.6. Currently, the market sits near the VAL of this range, allowing for further rotation within the VA. Structurally, price remains compressed within a [1W FVG], with emerging reversal signals via [1D OB + 1D RB test]. The key support remains the [1W FVG], aligning with the previous composite’s volume node at $2244–$2176. Microstructure Insight The nearest upside liquidity magnet sits around $2500, while downside liquidity is concentrated near $2200. At $2400, seller activity is evident through increased ask limits. Meanwhile, the $2300 VAL test shows buyer support via bid limits — forming a local equilibrium and confirming a rotational phase. Scenarios • Base case: Continued rotation with possible balance expansion inside VA • Primary idea: Sweep lower toward $2244 → look for long setups from support • Alternative: Rotation within balance + test of [4H FVG] → short scenario • Holding within balance and taking the $2277 swing low may trigger rotation higher within the range, targeting nearby FTA levels 🔗 TradingView chart (1H): tradingview.com/x/BMTdRHUq/ #Ethereum #Crypto #CryptoTrading #Trading #PriceAction #VolumeProfile #Altcoins #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketStructure

$BTC Update 📊 Price has broken above after testing the local balance POC at $74,275, which opened the door for long positions with continuation potential. The market has taken out the main liquidity at $79,380 (Bad High) and tested the nearest FTA in the form of a daily FVG. Above, the next key target remains the psychological level of $80,000, where long-term Ask liquidity is concentrated. Meanwhile, the nearest Bid liquidity sits around $72,500. The bullish order flow remains intact, and the presence of liquidity above continues to support a buyer-controlled scenario. A rotation within the current composite range of $79,025 – $77,725 is expected. Below that lies the SP zone at $76,525, aligning with the 4H FVG — this area is considered the primary zone to watch for continuation after a local breakdown from the range. In case of a deeper move, a rotation toward yesterday’s balance near $75,925 becomes likely. From a microstructure perspective, order book depth periodically overheats on the Ask side, which is consistent with price trading in a premium relative to the balance. The key trigger remains overcrowded long positioning: an impulsive spike in order book activity toward the Ask side is expected, followed by a higher probability of a corrective phase and a shift toward short opportunities. 🔗 TradingView chart (1H): tradingview.com/x/7aoaUoRo/ #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #CryptoTrading #Trading #CryptoAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #OrderFlow #PriceAction #Investing

$BTC Price rotated into the HVN, where a seller reaction followed: abnormal market buying was absorbed, after which the asset repositioned lower and returned to trading within the local balance range. Contextually, despite the move outside the fair value area and the formation of an upward order flow (OF) targeting the ~$80,000 region, the structure still shows signs of buyer presence. At the same time, the microstructure highlights limiting factors: price has shifted to the downside of the local balance, the nearest resistance stands at the $77,000 HVN, and Spot Delta reflects persistent selling pressure keeping price contained within the range. In the $76,500–$78,000 zone, an effective seller positioning was observed, accompanied by an Ask imbalance in the order book. At current levels, the Bid/Ask Ratio appears balanced; however, at recent local lows, support from a limit buyer is visible at shallow depths. This creates conditions for continued rotational activity without a clear directional impulse. The base scenario remains continued rotation with balance expansion in the $74,000–$76,000 range, with potential tests of high-pressure volume zones: ~$76,500 on the upside and ~$73,000 on the downside. Further price action will depend on reactions at the Value Area (VA) boundaries. A breakout beyond these limits makes a test of the $71,000 VAH a key reference point for assessing further positioning. The key support level and correction target stands at $73,000. For short positions, a corrective move toward the $77,000 area is expected. Long positions within the balance should be considered on the initial test of the balance POC at $74,275. 🔗 TradingView chart (1H): tradingview.com/x/FNIuIsIW/ #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #CryptoTrading #Trading #PriceAction #OrderFlow #CryptoAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingView #CryptoMarket #Investing

This week remains relatively light in terms of macroeconomic events, however, the key releases will provide insight into the state of consumer demand and the labor market in the U.S. Following the recent acceleration in inflation, the market will be testing whether consumer strength persists and how resilient the labor market remains under tight monetary policy conditions. Against this backdrop, geopolitics continues to act as a separate driver of sentiment. Tensions around Iran remain elevated: the U.S. blockade complicates diplomatic efforts and effectively prevents the formation of a clear framework for potential negotiations. The situation surrounding the previously announced talks, mentioned by Trump, further highlighted this imbalance — Iran did not confirm participation nor form a delegation, as no official agreement had been reached. The lack of response was interpreted by the market as a refusal, although in reality it reflects the absence of a coordinated decision. 📅 Tuesday Retail Sales MoM (March), 14:30 Previous: 0.6% Forecast: 1.1% 📅 Thursday Initial Jobless Claims (April 18), 14:30 Previous: 207K Forecast: 218K Over the weekend, the geopolitical factor once again moved to the forefront. Iran attacked the VLCC supertanker Sanmar Herald along with another tanker sailing under the Indian flag, both en route from Iraq. The market reaction was immediate: oil surged sharply at the open by around +9%, while futures on the S&P500 and Nasdaq100 turned negative by about -0.80%. In this context, the crypto market also came under pressure, as it remains highly correlated with overall risk sentiment. At the same time, from a technical standpoint, the market has already reacted to the initial zones of interest we previously discussed, making further price action dependent not only on news flow but also on whether price can establish itself above or below key levels. #Macro #Economy #Markets #Trading #Investing #Geopolitics #Oil #Crypto #SP500 #Nasdaq #Inflation #Fed #RiskOn #RiskOff

$ETH Within the local range, ETH is trading in the value area premium zone (VA 2145–1925$). Price has established acceptance above VAH, with the primary target of the current move remaining the [1M FVG]. At the same time, the situation remains mixed. On the 1D timeframe, the market is holding within the [1D RB], showing signs of price rejection, while also being supported by the [1D FVG], which limits further impulsive expansion. Technically, the uptrend order flow (OF) remains intact, supporting a long-biased narrative. Price has tested the 0.5 P/D array and has transitioned into a phase of local rotation. Liquidity overview: 🔺 Ask-side liquidity in the 2350–2400$ range has been taken 🎯 Next upside liquidity magnets are positioned around 2500$ 🔻 On the downside, Bid liquidity at 2300$ has already been swept If price accepts below, the next major liquidity pool sits near 2150$ Order book dynamics show: ⚖️ Sell pressure dominates at local depths (limit sellers) 🟢 However, larger depths still show limit buyers, indicating underlying support and interest in holding price Positioning metrics: Net Long/Short ratios remain balanced → no signs of overheating This keeps the door open for trend continuation 📌 Scenarios: Primary (Long): Continued rotation within VA 2316–2363$ Alternative (Short): Rejection in the 2351–2370$ range could trigger a deeper correction toward the untapped 2234$ zone 🔗 TradingView chart (1H): tradingview.com/x/zIRVCCtE/ #Ethereum #ETH #Crypto #CryptoTrading #Bitcoin #Altcoins #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis #CryptoMarket #DeFi

$BTC Update After the liquidity sweep of long-term spot magnets in the $74,000–$76,000 range, we are observing abnormal high-volume position closures from large capital participants. Additionally, there has been a rapid overheating of the order books toward limit seller dominance, creating a noticeable imbalance between supply and demand across near and mid depths. At the same time, the fact that price broke above the balance boundary at $71,176 indicates the presence of local buyer support. In the current context, it is therefore more reasonable to trade strictly in line with the market direction. The execution of liquidity at $74K / $75K / $76K did not trigger an immediate reaction, shifting focus toward how price will position itself relative to these levels going forward. The nearest long-term liquidity magnets are located higher — around $78,000 and $80,000, while the first significant liquidity below sits near $68,000. 📊 From current levels, a local balance is forming, within which long positions are being maintained. For a potential short scenario, it is advisable to wait for price to move into the HVN zone at $77,211.8 – $75,455.4, where seller accumulation may occur. At the same time, a renewed buyer reaction at the VAH of the local balance ($73,940) followed by successful holding would open the path for continuation toward the HVN. If price consolidates below $73,940, the probability of a deeper corrective move from current levels increases. #BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #CryptoTrading #Trading #CryptoAnalysis #BTCUpdate #CryptoMarket #OrderFlow #Liquidity #SmartMoney #TradingView #TechnicalAnalysis #CryptoSignals

$BTC After consolidating near the upper boundary of the balance at $71,176, price delivered the expected deviation toward the NPOC at $74,050. On the left side of the range, the seller volume-cluster zone ($73,100–$74,850) is currently being tested, acting as a key area of interest for short positions within the balance framework. At local highs, repeated absorption of market buy orders by a limit seller is observed, effectively capping further upside. This type of reactive activity is forming directly at the range high, confirming the presence of supply. 📊 From a technical standpoint, the order flow (OF) structure remains under buyer control. The nearest support is located at the [4H OB] $73,660, which serves as the first key level in case of a corrective move. Within auction market logic, continuation to the upside requires price to trade through the current inefficiency. From current levels, a move down toward $72,773 appears more likely, where buyer reaction will be critical. If demand forms in this zone, it could create conditions for further upside, targeting higher-timeframe liquidity in the $75,000–$76,000 range. At the same time, there are strong counterarguments against a bullish scenario. Price is trading in the premium zone of the range, while limit order book dynamics have shifted toward seller dominance, creating notable sell pressure. Additionally, the Net Long/Short ratio is overheated on the long side, increasing the probability of aggressive long liquidations. In the short term, the base scenario remains a correction toward the [4H OB] $73,660, where fresh information about demand strength is expected. A breakdown and acceptance below this level would open the path toward a deeper correction into the $70,000 area. Further decisions should be made based on price reaction at ключевых POI. 🔗 TradingView chart (1H): tradingview.com/x/IOg80HKm/ #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #CryptoTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #Trading #OrderFlow #PriceAction #CryptoMarket #Investing

🌎 This week, market focus is shifting toward the inflation block via PPI, which will help assess price pressures at the producer level and how they may feed through into consumer inflation. After last week, the market already received confirmation of accelerating inflation: CPI (y/y) came in at 3.3% versus 2.4% previously, fully matching expectations. In fact, this was the base-case scenario for market participants, as the likelihood of declining inflation was barely considered. 💵 Against this backdrop, the latest PPI data becomes key to understanding whether the inflationary impulse is persisting deeper within the economy. Additionally, jobless claims will indicate whether the labor market remains resilient enough to sustain the current level of price pressure. 📅 Tuesday PPI MoM (March), 14:30 Previous: 0.7% Forecast: 1.3% Core PPI MoM (March) Previous: 0.5% Forecast: 0.4% 📅 Thursday Initial Jobless Claims (April 11), 14:30 Previous: 219K Forecast: 216K #inflation #PPI #CPI #economy #macroeconomics #markets #trading #stocks #forex #investing #economicdata #centralbank #interestrates #financialmarkets #marketupdate

$ETH A statistical deviation from the HTF FTA [1D FVG] is occurring. The price is facing rejection and forming seller support in the form of a [1D RB]. A test of this FTA is pushing the market into the support zone [1D FVG], where the price is currently trading within inefficiencies. Delta shows attempts from buyers to hold the price at the highs of daily candles; however, these attempts are failing. Upon reaching the local VAH at $2230, an imbalance in ask orders appears in the order books, confirming the presence of supply. 📊 There is a sufficient amount of downside liquidity left as targets, so the short scenario remains the priority. The base expectation is either a rotation to the $2214 area or a retest of the VAH at $2230, followed by a move to exit the local value area. Considering the price is being capped by limit orders around the $2240 zone, the probability of value area expansion increases, with a potential price migration toward $2100, where short-term liquidity is concentrated. 🔗 TradingView chart (1H): tradingview.com/x/2nZ5CK4R/ #ETH #Ethereum #Crypto #CryptoTrading #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #OrderFlow #FVG #SmartMoney #BTC #Altcoins

$BTC Update Price is trading in the upper part of the range, essentially within a premium zone. After returning to the global VA, the price stalled at a VAH retest. Initial profit-taking has started to appear in this area, while the order book showed an imbalance on the ask side, which is now gradually evening out with a corrective shift toward bids. After taking out the Bad High, the base scenario from current levels points to a corrective move downward. 📉 The nearest target for this correction is the GAP at $70,095 – $69,760, with additional liquidity resting below at NPOC $69,175. If buyer activity emerges in this zone and market sells are absorbed, we can expect a potential reversal pattern followed by a continuation of the move toward $73,000. If buyer strength fails to appear and price aggressively breaks below $68,375, the market will likely transition into a deeper correction within the VA, followed by a migration toward the lower part of the range. 🔗 TradingView chart (1H): tradingview.com/x/5hMow6PV/ #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #CryptoTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #Trading #OrderFlow #CryptoMarket #PriceAction #VolumeProfile #CryptoSignals

$BTC The priority of trading from internal VAL/VAH tests remains unchanged. The market formed a breakout above the local VA, followed by acceptance above the POC at $68,000. The primary target for the current move is the VAH level at $71,175. The recent upside move was expected and initiated by an internal test of VAL at $65,550. An additional supporting factor was the microstructure: inflow of new longs remained low, while futures delta showed repeated attempts by sellers to push price into VAL via market sells, which were absorbed. At this stage, the market structure remains valid for looking for long opportunities within the balance. 📊 On the daily profile, a local balance has formed between $66,575 and $67,375. A test of this area may act as a trigger for demand and further upside continuation within auction market logic. It is advisable to assess further positioning based on the reaction at the boundaries of this range. From a microstructure perspective, bid imbalances in crypto exchange order books have shifted toward dominance by limit sellers, though mostly at local depths. A full Ask imbalance has not yet formed, while at larger depths the market is still supported by buyers, preserving the potential for continued upward rotation within the current balance. 🔗 TradingView chart (1H): tradingview.com/x/11nGuzju/ #BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #CryptoTrading #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis #OrderFlow #MarketProfile #VolumeProfile #PriceAction #CryptoMarket #Futures #Investing

🌎 This week, the U.S. macroeconomic calendar will focus on inflation data, consumer activity, and signals from the Federal Reserve, all of which will shape expectations for the future path of monetary policy. Key events include the release of FOMC Minutes, PCE and CPI inflation data, as well as statistics on household income and spending. 📅 Monday ISM Services PMI (March), 16:00 Previous: 56.1 Forecast: 54 📅 Tuesday Durable Goods Orders MoM (February), 14:30 Previous: 0% Forecast: -0.3% 📅 Wednesday FOMC Minutes, 20:00 Minutes from the Fed’s latest meeting may provide more insight into the regulator’s stance on inflation risks. At its March meeting, the Fed kept rates unchanged in the 3.5%–3.75% range, in line with market expectations. The release comes ahead of Friday’s inflation data and may offer additional signals on how concerned the Fed is about inflation dynamics. 📅 Thursday Core PCE Price Index MoM (February), 14:30 Previous: 0.4% Forecast: 0.2% GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final (Q4) Previous: 4.4% Forecast: 0.7% Personal Income MoM (February) Previous: 0.4% Forecast: 0.4% Personal Spending MoM (February) Previous: 0.4% Forecast: 0.6% 📅 Friday Core Inflation Rate MoM (March), 14:30 Previous: 0.2% Forecast: 0.2% Core Inflation Rate YoY (March) Previous: 2.5% Forecast: 2.6% Inflation Rate MoM (March) Previous: 0.3% Forecast: 0.8% Inflation Rate YoY (March) Previous: 2.4% Forecast: 3.1% #economy #inflation #Fed #FOMC #macroeconomics #trading #investing #stocks #forex #finance #economiccalendar #markets #CPI #PCE