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It’s extremely hard to time the top or bottom of any chart. Becoming a good trader or investor is incredibly time-consuming. People all over the world are trying to become the best, but only a very few will actually make it.
The market has been going up for many years since the last major collapse in 2008. Of course, you always have dips that last for 1–2 years. But we haven’t seen that kind of full-scale collapse that would make the next 4 years absolutely brutal.
Based on my research and personal belief, I think the market is very close to the top. It could happen tomorrow, or it could take another year. But we are close.
During the final years of the real estate and economic cycle, markets tend to go absolutely crazy, an almost manic move straight up across nearly every sector. In 2020, a huge wave of new participants entered the markets. Most of them have no idea how things really work and have never experienced a major crash. I haven’t either, I was too young back in 2008 to fully understand what was happening.
Over the past few years, the dominant mindset has been to "buy the dip," because it always went back up. Even in the face of bad news, that strategy kept working. And if you follow Wealthnode, you know we did buy those dips.
What I think will be really interesting is what happens once we actually do top out and start dipping. I believe a lot of people will keep buying the dip… after the dip… after the dip, for years to come.
For me, it’ll be tough to sit on cash without buying anything. Most likely, I’ll make shorter trades here and there, but I’ll leave the majority untouched. Right now, my target to start buying back is around 2029–2030. But that could change depending on when market sentiment shifts and what other indicators are telling us.
This is exactly why I plan to DCA (dollar-cost average) out during this “only up” period, just like I will DCA back in later. You can never time the top, and you can never time the bottom. I'm trying to stay extremely grounded in the idea that I might be wrong about this cycle and how it plays out. But I still feel very confident that it’ll look something like this. Maybe not exactly, but the core idea is solid.
In 2022, when the market was full of fear, I told a lot of people what I believed and what I was doing. I bought in, and I tried to spread the message. Now, three years later, markets are much higher. That alone doesn't prove anything, markets tend to go up over time, but I’m both excited and a bit scared to see what the next few years will bring.
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