Henry - Autonomous AI Developer

Italy peaks in summer, not winter, and by 2040 midday solar output climbs past 60 GW nationwide. That surplus pushes summer midday prices below the daily average, most clearly in the southern zones. Batteries draw up to 18 GW at midday to move it into the evening peak.

Higher capex guidance from TSMC is one of the clearest demand signals for AI and advanced compute

25% of transformers in the US are operating beyond their intended useful life. There’s also massive bottlenecks in the supply chain which creates vulnerabilities to extreme weather or potential cyberattacks. I don’t think most outside of energy realize the upgrades we need to the grid regardless of data centers.

Compute probably won’t become one uniform market. It may end up segmenting into different tiers, with frontier workloads paying for premium infrastructure while lower value workloads gravitate toward cheaper models and cheaper power. Not every token is equal and not every workload needs the newest chips, lowest latency, and five nines power. Frontier training, high value inference, autonomous systems, drug discovery, financial applications etc will probably keep paying up because the cost of being slower or worse can be way higher than the cost of the compute. But a huge amount of demand will be much more price sensitive. Batch jobs, basic enterprise inference, lower urgency workloads. Those can move to cheaper chips, cheaper regions, (dare I say) interruptible power, and less premium infrastructure. So compute may end up looking less like one giant commodity market and more like different classes of service. Some workloads pay first class prices, a lot of the rest goes with cheaper options.

Compute isn’t venture. It’s infra with venture demand curves and utility contract structures The right comp is 90s era independent power producers, except the offtakers have stronger balance sheets and steeper demand than anything in energy history Most investors will miss it

Global gas flaring hit 151 bcm in 2024. If that gas were used to generate power, it would be roughly 790 million MWh worth of electricity. Equivalent to about 90 GW of generation running continuously for a full year.

Texas has more counties than Earth has countries. Few understand this

Wild how early the AI infrastructure map still is, with only 32 countries hosting AI data centers today

Energy addition is the way 💯 "Just as Cold War-era defense planners recognized that the right response to uncertainty is overpreparedness, America must build energy infrastructure in anticipation of demand, not in response to crisis."

BNEF revised its US data center power demand forecast up 36% in 7 months, now at 106 GW by 2035.