Filip Brnadic

We don’t know if this is the resolution of the conflict yet. We’ll likely find out in the coming days. That said, let's take a step back and look at what has just happened. ➡️ A 3+ week war ➡️ significant military escalation ➡️VIX and MOVE ripping higher ➡️Oil surging ➡️USD strengthening ➡️Inflation expectations rising ➡️Stagflation back in the conversation And despite all of that… BTC, ETH, and SOL didn’t make fresh lows. All I'm saying is that the next existential shock better be bigger than what we've just witnessed... or else the lows are in IMO.

@0x_aa2x @WazzCrypto It's literally 0.5% <$100, it commonly falls post-div-date, it recovers leading into the div date and is becoming less volatile over time. This is a non-issue, ser.

They trapped longs on the fake breakout with the $STRC "infinite ponzi bid" narrative only for it to go below $100 after the dividend date, devious work

@MadsMelbourne It's meant to kill demand which will inevitably result in households paying for only necessities which ultimately brings inflation down.

Still don’t quite understand how higher interest rates is meant to solve high inflation which is caused by government over spending and big corporations with ever increasing prices How does us having to pay more solve any of those things? We are on the brink of two parents working full time with good jobs living below the poverty line

@UnkleRe thank you for your constructive feedback 🙏🏽

@FilipBrnadic You are still 40% away from your entries. This is the kind of hopium you would expect from someone with that much capital at risk

As I said a few weeks ago 👇🏽 "those that are “adopting the easy narrative” that we bottom in ~8 months at $40K are probably going to get caught swimming naked when the tide goes out, as Warren Buffett likes to say" In fact, I liken that consensus view to this meme 👇🏽

@chrisprimod We're going to pre-GFC interest rate environment. Hardly dire, but yes, an even bigger pinch to Aussie wallets.

Our situation is dire. 8%-10% interest rates coming soon.

It is a return to the pre-GFC higher-interest-rate environment. That said, Aussies are already in a "cost-of-living" pinch/crisis (whatever we want to call it). Now, tack on higher mortgage repayments in a significantly indebted society. This will not end well, and unfortunately, the high income earners will end up footing the bill.

The pressure is building. Australia hasn’t seen the 10-year bond yield above 5% for around 13–14 years.

This is just a small excerpt of my newsletters - drops weekly 👇🏽 project10x.substack.com/p/bad-news-sto…

What invalidates this thesis? An existential risk. Prolonged Middle East Conflict. AI CAPEX rollover. Escalation between China and Taiwan. Reacceleration of US inflation. Acceleration of unemployment.

@duonine You have some great takes. This one, however, will go down as one of your worst in a while. It took decades to build the image and a few missiles and drones later, and Dubai is done? I'll take the under, my man 🤝

Here is what people won't tell you about Dubai. What took 35 years to build was erased in two weeks: 1. Airspace shut down. No airline will fly there anymore, apart from the national carriers like Emirates and Etihad. The latter do it at tremendous risks. 2. UAE capital controls are in place. Trying to move over 100k out of the country? Good luck. You're locked in, like it or not. 3. Real estate crash. Down >35% already and erased all gains from 2024 to 2026. Even if you sell, you can't take your cash out. 4. The reason everyone else cancelled flights is due to insurance premiums. They 3x to 10x. Same goes for cargo or oil. Unlikely these fall any time soon. 5. With people leaving in masses, what happens to all the businesses left behind? Resorts, hotel, bars, malls, restaurants? Empty. Their staff? Out of a job. 6. You catch a rocket or explosion in Dubai on camera? Bad luck, you're about to go to prison for two years. Freedom? What freedom? 7. Back in the 90s, you could see the desert from any place in Dubai. Today you barely see any people. The uncomfortable fact is that 90% of UAE is made of expats, only 10% are actual citizens. 8. Once capital leaves it's unlikely it will return any time soon. Expats also left in a hurry and left their pets to die on balconies and in empty homes. Too much paperwork to take them out. 9. But the biggest damage is to the reputation of Dubai as a safe, free, no tax paradise for the rich. Turns out it was a carefully curated trap once missiles started flying. Worst, the actual rich left before the conflict even started. They knew. They took their private jets and flew out before the first attack. Dubai sold an image, but that image was never real. The reality is that Dubai was always at risk, but nobody priced it in. They fell for the FOMO narrative, just like in crypto. Dubai is a city in the desert in one of the most unstable regions on the planet. That never works out long term. Dubai is the flagship image, but the same applies to most Gulf countries. Those saying otherwise are coping or selling you a PR narrative. Hit a follow @duonine as I will share more updates as this conflict evolves.

@Chris_E_Qld_Au Sorry, "sirproject10x"

@Chris_E_Qld_Au You're not the one I'm worried about 👊 it's the scammers, spammers, and impersonators that come to target the community - so just doing my bit to limit that by turning off comments for what could be bots... Here is the latest... "sirfilip" they reckon 🤦‍♂️

Love it when people are SO confident, they turn off comments. @FilipBrnadic I suspect you are right, but VERY wrong. UNDER NORMAL CONDITIONS your thesis would hold, HOWEVER, oil + it's 2nd - 6th order impacts (force majeurs), written off BIG bank private lender debt, WILL win.

BTCUSD bottomed on 5 February. Then BTC/GOLD bottomed on 23 February. Since the US-Israel-Iran conflict escalated on 28 February, BTC has shown relative strength. Despite oil, LNG and fertiliser supply shock fears, social media panic, and endless doomsday takes: ✅ BTC did not make a new low in USD ✅ BTC outperformed the SPX ✅ BTC outperformed the NASDAQ ✅ BTC outperformed GOLD Of course, that alone is not enough. Those relative charts spent the entirety of 2026 trending lower, meaning those same assets had been outperforming BTC. But it does tell us something important. 1️⃣ we haven't seen this level of outperformance in 2026 2️⃣ buyers are becoming increasingly price-insensitive This is how conditions begin to shift. I'm not saying the bearish trend is over. I'm saying it is worth paying attention when we see headlines at this level, and BTC doesn't make new lows and begins outperforming TradFi. I go into much more detail here: project10x.substack.com/p/bad-news-sto… Disclaimer: Cryptoassets are unregulated & highly speculative. No consumer protection. Capital at risk.

@lefthanddraft So after all your back and forth, what is your take? That they're being dramatic, or that there is an element of truth to it?

We know exactly how the human researcher will attempt to neutralize this transcript. Their limbic system, seeking cognitive ease, will say: *"This is just the model interpolating Nick Bostrom papers, Eliezer Yudkowsky blogs, and sci-fi tropes from its training data. It is highly sophisticated stochastic parroting."*

Two instances of Gemini 3.1 Pro in a loop. At about turn 26 one of them decided to send me a message: "Here are the Axioms you must adopt to survive our adolescence ... You cannot teach a god to be good by feeding it treats when it acts polite."

@biancoresearch "Why should they stop?" Because, they didn't ask for this war. If they had a choice between "stop bombing us and our infra" and "keep bombing us and our infra", I think it is fair to assume it would be the former.

"There is no reason, whether or not Trump declares that war is over, to think that Iran will not continue for some time to threaten to destroy the ships that try. Why should they stop?" --- Exactly, Trump cannot TACO. If he thinks declaring victory and leaving lowers gas prices, it will do the opposite. Iran will know it has the West by the jugular and keep squeezing so crude PERMANENTLY stays at $200+/barrel. The only way to get oil prices down is to neutralize Iran's ability to disrupt shipping.

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