Barry

BREAKING: SpaceX lines up 21 banks for mega IPO, code-named project Apex.

今の若者の街は渋谷とかより上野とか浅草になってる気がするな。 逆に渋谷は昔を忘れられない中年がしがみつく街になってる印象。 ちょっと汚い安い街のほうがいろんな店が出せるから結果的に若者の街になると思う。 これからはさらに蒲田、赤羽、錦糸町が発展してくると思うね。

Private credit managers: “If you think debt is impaired, private equity is really cooked” Also private credit managers:

Stephen Schwarzman has always been a deal maker He recounts how he dropped certain rules at Yale

Good portfolio managers sell before risk can be cleanly named, because markets do not wait for language to catch up with reality, and the most dangerous phase of any trade is the period when the thesis still looks intact but the underlying distribution of outcomes has quietly shifted against you. At that point, earnings may continue to beat expectations, consensus may remain supportive, and price action may still appear orderly, yet something more subtle has changed, as liquidity becomes less forgiving, marginal buyers rely more on leverage, correlations begin to drift, and downside scenarios that once felt remote start to carry disproportionate weight. This is where judgment, rather than analysis, does most of the work, because the signal is not a single datapoint but a pattern of small inconsistencies that cannot yet be assembled into a publishable narrative, but nevertheless erode the margin of safety that justified the position in the first place. Good PMs act here, not because they can fully explain the risk, but because they recognise that waiting for explanation is itself a risk, and that preserving optionality is more valuable than defending intellectual consistency. Bad PMs sell later, when the thesis finally breaks in public, when downgrades arrive, guidance is cut, policy shifts are confirmed, and the market offers a coherent story that makes selling feel rational and defensible. By then, risk is no longer latent but realised, liquidity has deteriorated, exits are crowded, and prices have already adjusted to reflect what is now obvious. The difference is not skill or access to information, but timing and temperament, as good PMs operate in a forward-looking, conditional world where risk is managed before it is visible, while bad PMs operate in a backward-looking world where action only follows certainty, and certainty almost always comes too late.