Finimize

What you need to know about markets today 👇 1️⃣ With hostilities in the Middle East driving up the cost of fertilizer, food prices are on the rise – revealing just how fragile global supply chains are. 2️⃣ OpenAI is developing a desktop super-app with embedded agentic AI, in the hopes of challenging rival Anthropic for dominion over the AI-powered workspace market.

Rolls-Royce $RYCEY has been one of the market’s best stories… 3 growth engines: ✈️ Civil aerospace 🛡️ Defense ⚡ Power systems None of that has changed. But one key variable just got riskier 👀 Finimize analyst Theodora Lee Joseph, CFA explains why she’s moving from buy → hold 👇 finimize.com/content/rolls-… $RR.L $RYCEY #Investing #Stocks #Aerospace

What you need to know about markets today 📷 📷 The Fed held interest rates steady, caught between sticky inflation and slowing growth – with the Middle East conflict making the future harder to read, policymakers seem to have decided that sitting tight is the least risky move for now. 📷 Nvidia boss Jensen Huang called AI agent platform OpenClaw “the next ChatGPT” – sparking a rally in Chinese tech stocks as investors bet that agentic AI could be the next big thing.

What you need to know about markets today 📷 📷 SK Group warned the global memory-chip shortage could last until 2030 amid voracious AI demand – raising the risk of even higher chip prices squeezing profit for everyone from Nvidia and AMD to Apple. 📷 Morgan Stanley says private credit loan default rates could climb as high as 8%, driven by worries that indebted software firms are vulnerable to AI disruption – putting a spotlight on direct lending’s other problem: investors being able to get their money out when they want it.

Harrow’s down ~30% in a few weeks — not because things are going badly, but because they weren’t quite going well enough. The eye-care pharma firm’s still expanding fast, with revenues set to grow by 30%+ and profits by even more. If it delivers, the stock looks cheap. And there could be some bonus upside, too, if its G-Melt drug gets approved – putting it a step closer to its dream of needle-free cataract surgery. #HROW finimize.substack.com/p/harrow-in-sh…

What you need to know about markets today 📷 📷 Revolut finally got its full UK banking licence – meaning it can now rev the real profit engine of banking: lending (think credit cards, overdrafts, and loans). That turns its 13 million UK users into a ready-made base to push deeper into “main bank” products – but it also comes with tougher scrutiny. 📷 The IEA is preparing a record emergency oil release after warning that shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are down 90% – but the 400 million-barrel release would take months to fully hit the market.

👀 (Courtesy of the @finimize chart of the day)

How To Become A Superforecaster And Beat Wall Street At Its Own Game To be a superforecaster, start by defining what you actually want to forecast and then break the problem down into its component parts. Next, find the right balance between the cold, objective “outside view” and the more emotion-led “inside view”. And finally, be willing to both adjust your forecast when new information arises and admit when you’ve gone wrong. Full guide here: finimize.com/content/how-to…

What you need to know about markets today 📷 📷 Foxconn missed profit expectations, with quarterly earnings falling 2% and landing well below forecasts – but that was mostly down to a hefty tax bill, while sales actually jumped 22% higher amid demand for Nvidia's AI servers. 📷 Meta signed a deal worth up to $27 billion with AI-cloud firm Nebius, underlining just how aggressively Big Tech is still spending on compute – but the tie-up also highlights a growing web of AI interdependence, with firms increasingly acting as each other’s investors, suppliers, and customers.

Central banks were close to declaring victory over post-pandemic inflation – but a new energy shock tied to the Iran war is complicating the picture. With oil near $100 and natural gas prices climbing, economists are nudging up inflation forecasts across the US, UK, and Europe while trimming growth expectations. Traders have quickly dialed back bets on interest-rate cuts, with some even pricing in potential hikes from the ECB and possibly the BoE. The difference from 2022: job markets are softer and policy is already tight, which could limit a wage-price spiral. Still, policymakers remain wary of repeating the mistake of calling inflation “temporary.” #Oil #CentralBanks #InterestRates #Fed

🔎 The Focus This Week: Interest Rate Decisions The Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BoE), and Bank of Japan (BoJ) are all set to announce interest rate decisions this week. And not one of them has an easy call to make. That’s because they’re weighing their next move against a tricky backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions and higher energy prices. ➤ Let’s start with the Fed. The US central bank kept borrowing costs unchanged at its first meeting of 2026 after delivering three consecutive rate cuts late last year. Traders widely expect it to sit tight again this week – and it’s not terribly hard to see why. See, on the one hand, the labor market’s been cooling. The economy unexpectedly shed 92,000 jobs in February, marking the third drop in payrolls in five months. That kind of slowdown could give the Fed reason to cut its key lending rate and deliver a bit of lift to the economy. But on the other hand, inflation remains stubbornly high. Fresh data last week showed consumer prices rose 2.4% in February – unquestionably quicker than the Fed’s 2% target. And that was before this month’s surge in energy prices. So it makes sense that traders have dialed back their expectations for rate cuts this year. They’ll be watching closely on Wednesday when the Fed releases its statement and its policymaker-by-policymaker “dot plot” of interest rate projections. ➤ Across the pond, traders expect the BoE and ECB to also stay put when they meet on Thursday. But they’re less sure about how things might go after that. Just two weeks ago, they were betting that the ECB would keep borrowing costs flat all year. But now, markets are pricing in at least one rate hike – which would mark the official end of the Bank’s rate-cutting spree. The reason is simple: Europe relies heavily on imported oil and natural gas, so any increase in energy costs tends to feed more quickly into consumer prices. And policymakers will want to try to knock those price pressures down before they get too raucous. The UK’s in a similar spot, so markets have changed their thinking there, too. A couple of weeks ago, they were pricing in two rate cuts for 2026, but now: none. ➤ And then there’s the BoJ. It’s been the outlier among major central banks: while others lowered rates, it’s been pushing them higher. Now, the BoJ’s expected to keep borrowing costs unchanged this week, too – but traders will be listening closely for any hint that it might pick up the pace of its rate hikes. After all, Japan imports almost all of its energy and much of its food – meaning turmoil in energy markets, combined with prolonged weakness in the yen, could quickly translate into faster inflation. 👉 Read the full Finimize Weekly Brief – a recap of last week’s highlights and a preview of the key things to watch in the week ahead – here: lnkd.in/eiS73SPW #centralbanks #interestrates #fed #ecb #boe #boj

The energy transition is happening 🌱 But the reality looks very different from the narrative. Right now: ⚡ AI data centers are creating the first electricity demand shock in decades 🛢️ Fossil fuels may stay relevant longer than expected 🚗 EV adoption ≠ EV profits 🏭 China dominates green manufacturing Energy markets are changing fast. Which trend will matter most for investors? Read the insight: finimize.com/content/five-s…

Outthink. finimize.com/join/

AI stole the spotlight 🤖 But quantum computing might steal the future ⚛️ Think about the implications: 🔐 Encryption could be broken 💊 Drug discovery could accelerate 📈 Markets could get even harder to beat The twist: most of this tech is still early. Are we underestimating quantum the way we once underestimated AI? finimize.com/content/ai-too…

Just dropped: our free @finimize guide to AI data centers in space 🛰️ @elonmusk’s pitch sounds like pure science fiction: launching vast networks of data centers into orbit. Of course, he’s not the only one gazing upward. Amazon founder @JeffBezos, OpenAI’s @sama, and former Google CEO @ericschmidt are exploring the idea of space-based computing, too. The logic isn’t as far-fetched as it might sound. Building AI infrastructure on Earth is getting harder and more expensive, with energy costs, err, rocketing, and the power grid already under strain. Orbital data centers could, at least in theory, sidestep some of those issues by using solar-powered satellites to run the massive processing workloads behind AI systems like ChatGPT, Gemini, and Grok. It’s a moonshot, in the truest sense of the word. And history has taught us that some moonshots change the world, while others never actually leave the launchpad. So our free guide covers everything you need to know right now as an investor, and answers key questions like: ✅ Why is everyone suddenly talking about data centers in space? ✅ Are space-based data centers even feasible? ✅ How soon could this become reality? ✅ Who’s in the race to make this happen? ✅ So how can you invest in this? Link to the guide here: finimize.substack.com/p/ai-data-cent… #space #ai #datacenters #spacex @SpaceX $AMZN $GOOGL $MSFT $NVDA $PL $RKLB $LUNR

Yesterday was a rollercoaster. Brent crude briefly flirted with $120 a barrel before sliding later in the day after the G7 said it’s ready to tap emergency oil reserves. The selling then kicked into overdrive when Trump claimed the war would be over “very soon”. By the end of it all, futures on the global oil benchmark had swung through a $36 range – marking the biggest ever drop from an intraday high to a closing price on record. Courtesy of the @finimize chart of the week. #oil

About 20% of the world’s oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. If oil and gas stay high, the impact goes far beyond the pump. ✈️ Airlines get squeezed 🧪 Chemical firms lose competitiveness 🚢 Shipping rates surge 🛢 Energy producers benefit 🪙 Safe-haven assets rise Here’s how higher energy prices could ripple across the global economy and markets: finimize.com/content/what-h…