Finimize

The average Finimize analyst idea has delivered a 29% return. Since launching the Finimize Analyst Desk in 2024, our investment ideas have: - Delivered an average annualized return of 37% - Beaten their benchmarks by 17 percentage points - Made money on 83% of calls Note that chart below shows the absolute return of each idea (not annualized).

What you need to know about markets today 👇 1️⃣ The latest US-China talks ended with few concrete deals, leaving investors focused instead on rising energy prices and the economic fallout from disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. 2️⃣ Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square bought a big stake in Microsoft, making a contrarian bet that fears around AI-powered software disruption have gone too far.

Nvidia's rise from gaming graphics card maker to the backbone of the AI economy has been nothing short of staggering – and its market value now eclipses the entire Indian stock exchange, one of the world's fastest-growing economies. Let that sink in for a second… $NVDA #Nvidia #AI #India

Nebius Just Posted A Strong Quarter, But The Bigger Story May Be What Comes Next #NBIS Nebius has jumped 23% after another set of stellar quarterly results. Demand and pricing proved strong, and the company revised its planned contracted power capacity for the year to 4GW from 3GW. The stock also just surpassed the blue-sky scenario I sketched out last July, when the stock was trading around $50, having climbed 300% on a flawlessly executed growth plan. Now, the new blue-sky scenario looks very optimistic. But it also looks achievable, assuming the company continues on its path toward providing a full-stack offering from the infrastructure layer all the way up to inference and agentic tools. finimize.com/content/nebius…

What you need to know about markets today 👇 1️⃣ AI chipmaker Cerebras pulled off the biggest IPO of the year so far, with investors piling into the stock as demand for new AI listings keeps heating up. 2️⃣ Honda posted its first loss since 1957 after taking a huge hit tied to its EV strategy, as traditional industries struggle to keep pace with the AI and tech boom.

The Finimize chart of the day shows mega IPOs since Facebook’s 2012 listing have, on average, underperformed the broader market. That's even more true once you strip out the first-day pop. In fact, research by “Mr. IPO” Jay Ritter suggests that IPOs in general tend to have a poor long-term track record for investors. From 1975 to 2021, the majority of IPOs lost money over three- and five-year periods after debut. Around 35% lost more than half their value relative to their offer price within three years. From 1980 to 2024, the average IPO bought at the first-day closing price returned just 19.1% after three years, underperforming the broader market by over 20 percentage points. The structural reasons are straightforward. A few stand out: First, the IPO price goes mostly to institutions. By the time retail investors can buy in the open market, the price has typically jumped well above the offer price – and Ritter found that buying at the first-day close instead of the offer price almost halves three-year returns. Most retail investors must choose between getting an allocation at the offer price (unlikely for hot deals) or paying whatever the market sets in the early days. Neither has historically been the best entry point. Second, by the time a company goes public, it’s gone through multiple funding rounds with sophisticated investors. Investment banks then market the deal aggressively and price it to maximize proceeds for the company and existing shareholders, often leaving limited upside for new investors. Third, companies choose when to go public, and they’re more likely to list when market conditions are strong, valuations are high, and their own growth story looks especially compelling. In other words, the best time for the company to sell is often the worst time for you to buy… #IPO #IPOs #Stocks $META

Should You Invest In SpaceX’s IPO – Or Leave It On The Launchpad? Finimize analyst Reda Farran has spent the past month diving deep into the company to answer exactly that question. And his full analysis is now live, broken down into seven parts: Part 1: The history of SpaceX Part 2: SpaceX’s business divisions Part 3: What you need to know about a SpaceX IPO Part 4: Five reasons to invest Part 5: Five reasons NOT to invest Part 6: What SpaceX is really worth Part 7: Final thoughts Check it out here: finimize.substack.com/p/should-you-i… @SpaceX @elonmusk #SpaceX #AI #Space

The Finimize chart of the day shows mentions of memory pricing on company earnings calls have surged – already topping any full year on record, despite covering just a single quarter of reports in 2026. Here's the deal: AI's insatiable appetite for memory chips has flipped the script on the semiconductor world. What used to be a boring commodity is now the bottleneck everyone's fighting over, and the haves and have-nots are pulling apart fast. Samsung just joined the $1 trillion club after its chip profits jumped 48-fold, Micron and SK Hynix are riding record highs, and Sandisk has rocketed more than 500% this year. A Bloomberg gauge of memory stocks is up roughly 120% in 2026. The flip side? Anyone who buys memory is sweating. Nintendo's stock has tanked over 30% and it's hiking Switch 2 prices, joining Xbox, PlayStation, and Meta's VR headsets in passing pain to consumers. Xiaomi's down 20%, Canon 10%. JPMorgan believes this memory "supercycle" has legs into 2027-2028, with some analysts whispering the crunch could drag on to 2030. For investors, the dividing line is brutally simple: pricing power wins, everyone else pays up. #AI #Memory #Semiconductors $MU #Samsung #SKHynix $SNDK $META

What you need to know today 👇 1️⃣ Higher energy prices pushed US inflation up to a near-three-year high – and with consumers starting to cut back on spending, retailers are feeling the squeeze. 2️⃣ Lime, the Uber-backed scooter and e-bike startup, just filed for an IPO that could value it at around $2 billion – but the micromobility company still hasn’t made any money yet.

Look, #AI’s not good at everything. Sure, it can book your friend group’s next dinner out. But it can’t read the room when you’re splitting up the check. That said, it is getting surprisingly good at helping retail #investors do things that used to feel complicated: running research, building trading strategies, and analyzing earnings calls in seconds. (And all without writing a single line of code, too.) So join us at the Modern Investor Summit in #NewYork: we’re bringing together the people who are up close and watching it happen. And you’re going to want to hear what they have to say. → @katieeperry , CMO @zerohashx and author of #TickerShock → Peter Nolan, Head of Asset and Wealth Management, @AnthropicAI → @leifthunder , Co-Founder and Co-CEO @public We’ll dive into where AI in investing is heading, what’s actually useful now, and how everyday investors can use these tools to make better-informed decisions. 🗓️ May 19th, 2026 · New York 🎟 Few tickets left: luma.com/q29x7t6c?utm_s…

* CME TO CREATE FUTURES MARKET FOR COMPUTING POWER BACKING AI AI compute is becoming the new oil. Literally... Source: Bloomberg bloomberg.com/news/articles/… #AI #Compute #Futures #CME

Rising component costs are set to push hyperscaler spending past $1 trillion next year, according to Morgan Stanley. Here's the thing: AI's eye-watering price tag isn't just about Big Tech building ever-bigger data centers. The bits and pieces inside them are getting pricier too – and "chipflation" is starting to bite everyone. Microsoft just added $25 billion to its annual capex bill (now a cool $190 billion), while Meta bumped its forecast up by $10 billion, mostly thanks to memory chips. And the suppliers? They're laughing all the way to the bank. Nvidia's GPUs already command 75% gross margins, while memory kingpins SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron have ballooned into a $2.8 trillion club. SK Hynix's operating margin hit a record 72% last quarter, with customers reportedly more worried about getting their hands on chips than haggling over price. Goldman Sachs reckons "nearly all the value has accrued to the chip layer" – great for semiconductor stocks (up nearly 3x in a year), less great for the hyperscalers footing the bill. Memory alone could swallow 30% of their capex by 2026, up from just 8% in 2024. The spillover's real: smartphone sales are tipped to drop 13% this year as memory makers prioritize fat data-center contracts, and Nintendo's already hiked Switch 2 prices. With chip fabs taking years to build and electricity bills climbing, AI looks set to stay inflationary – which could keep the Fed's hands tied on rate cuts, leaving everyone picking up the tab… #AI #Chips #Semiconductors #Memory $MSFT $NVDA $META $MU

Valuation legend Aswath Damodaran has spent a career figuring out what companies are actually worth – and he reckons it all comes down to three lessons. First: valuing a stock and pricing a stock are completely different things. Value is about future cash flows, growth, and risk. Price is about mood, momentum, and market madness. The goal? Find stocks where price sits below value, and ideally spot a catalyst that could close that gap. Second: there are only four things that actually drive value – revenue growth, profit margins, riskiness, and investment efficiency. That last one is about how much revenue a company can wring out of every dollar it invests. Master these four levers, and you can build a discounted cash flow (DCF) model without losing your mind. The math sounds intimidating, but the logic is simple: forecast future cash flows, discount them by the company's cost of capital, add a terminal value at the end, subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding. Done. Third – and this is the one most people skip – every good valuation needs a story. Before touching a spreadsheet, ask yourself: how does this business evolve over time? Is that narrative possible, plausible, and probable? Then make sure every number in your model maps back to a piece of that story, and every piece of that story has a number attached to it. The best investors don't just crunch figures. They tell a story, test it against reality, and update it when they're wrong. That's the whole game. Check out the full guide here: finimize.com/content/this-v… #Valuation #DCF @AswathDamodaran

What you need to know about markets today 👇 1️⃣ China’s factory-gate inflation jumped to a near three-year high, ending its long stretch of falling industrial prices – but it’s not consumer demand that’s driving prices up. 2️⃣ India’s PM has asked citizens to hold off on buying gold for a year – a sign of how strapped the economy is – while Ray Dario suggests that gold is still a solid bet for investors.

The Finimize chart of the day shows global markets rebounding faster than they have in recent memory. Just weeks after US-Israeli attacks on Iran sparked a major conflict, the world's biggest companies have collectively added over $5.4 trillion in value – a 4.2% increase. The recovery has been led overwhelmingly by the tech sector, with semiconductor companies alone surging 26% since the war began. The driving force? AI. Investors have flooded back into technology stocks, seeking shelter from geopolitical uncertainty in the predictable earnings power of Big Tech. Nearly two-thirds of large-cap companies mentioned AI on their first-quarter earnings calls – roughly twice as many as discussed the Middle East conflict. Not everyone is winning, however. Consumer goods, luxury, automotive, and mining companies have all taken hits as oil prices surge, supply chains fracture, and shoppers tighten their belts. $SPY #AI

🔎 The Focus This Week: Beijing Or Bust This week, the US president heads back to China for his first official visit since 2017. That was back when he was in his first term in office, and no other American president has gone since. The two-day meeting between him and the Chinese president was originally slated for the end of March, but was pushed back after the outbreak of the war in Iran. So what was already a closely watched meeting is now one of the most anxiously awaited diplomatic events in years. And whatever happens, this summit will absolutely not be a chatty catch-up. The relationship between the world’s two biggest economies is strained, to say the least, and few expect major progress. But with US midterm elections on the horizon, the president will be eager to bring home some tangible wins – and to find something to say on Truth Social. Top on the agenda when the two sides convene on Thursday will likely be trade. Both have used tariffs as economic weapons, and unwinding that tension is easier said than done. Complicating matters is the race for AI supremacy: the US holds a lead for now, but China is closing the gap, building out its tech infrastructure as it works around American export restrictions. The Asian country’s dominance in rare earths – key ingredients in all things electronic – remains one of its strongest bargaining chips in negotiations to keep those tariffs in check. It’s in the interests of both nations’ economies to see the Strait of Hormuz reopened to all shipping, and the US has been pressing China to use its influence with Iran to achieve that goal. The more prickly topic of Taiwan could also be on the agenda – at least China would want it to be – but it’s unlikely that there will be any shift to America’s long-standing position. Still, with this president, there is often room for a surprise. Read the full Finimize Weekly Brief – a recap of last week’s highlights and a preview of the key things to watch in the week ahead – here: finimize.substack.com/p/beijing-or-b… #US #China #AI #Tariffs #Trade

At A $2 Trillion Valuation, SpaceX Would Rank Among The Ten Biggest US Stocks @SpaceX is heading for what could be the biggest IPO in history – a roughly $75 billion offering at a valuation north of $2 trillion, potentially as soon as June. That's a lot of zeros for a company @elonmusk swore he'd never take public (at least not until humans reached Mars). At $2 trillion against about $18.7 billion in 2025 revenue (based on leaked IPO prospectus details), it would list at around 107x trailing sales. For context, Tesla trades at about 13x, while Palantir – the most expensive stock in the S&P 500 by a wide margin – sits closer to 62x. The median Nasdaq 100 stock, meanwhile, trades at roughly 6x. There’s no public market comparable trading at anything close to this multiple at this scale. Of course, no one’s valuing SpaceX on what it made last year – they’re paying for what it could become. And that vision is huge, including things like: • Starship (SpaceX's fully reusable, super heavy-lift vehicle) positioning the company as the world's dominant launch provider with an unmatched cost advantage. • Billions of Starlink subscribers generating high-margin recurring revenue (Starlink's EBITDA margin is already >50%). • A first-mover in orbital data centers (@AnthropicAI just expressed interest in partnering with SpaceX to deploy multiple gigawatts of orbital AI compute capacity). • A go-to government partner for human and cargo missions to the Moon and eventually Mars. SpaceX may well deliver on parts of that vision, sure, but the key point is this: at such a lofty starting valuation, a great deal of optimism is already priced in – leaving little room for execution missteps. Finimize will go over all of this and lots more – including a full sum-of-the-parts valuation – in an upcoming research piece on SpaceX next week. Stay tuned. #Space #SpaceX #AI #Anthropic $PLTR