Shad
1.2K posts
@FirestormerShad
Fritter and waste the hours in an offhand way: नेती नेती
The highest form of existence is to have no desire to be understood, admired, pitied, or known.
US-Iran war and $106 oil have broken many correlations: Treasuries are no longer safe havens, yen no longer strengthens in crisis, gold initially falls with equities instead of rising against them, oil no longer reliably strengthens the dollar.
The Current move in the markets is a classic liquidity squeeze. 2Y yields spike → Gold and equities roll over.(strong correlation) At the same time, Oil rips higher. Now here’s the key: Gold is inversely correlated to BOTH Oil and the 2Y in this move. That tells you this isn’t inflation bidding Gold… this is funding stress forcing liquidation. Oil up = immediate cash drain on the system 2Y up = cost of money rising fast ( and treasuries getting Sold) Put together → everything gets sold to raise cash. Gold isn’t acting like a hedge here, it’s acting like a source of liquidity. This doesn’t sustain for long. Either: 2Y rolls over → liquidity returns → Gold stabilizes or Stress deepens → broader liquidation continues Watch the short end along with Oil . That’s where the break or the pivot will come from.
YEMEN HOUTHI INFORMATION MINISTER: WE ARE CONSIDERING CLOSING THE BAB EL MANDEB STRAIT
*PENTAGON PREPARING FOR WEEKS OF GROUND OPS IN IRAN: WAPO
MORE THAN 3,500 U.S. TROOPS, INCLUDING THE USS Tripoli (LHA-7) WITH ABOUT 2,500 MARINES, ARRIVED IN THE MIDDLE EAST ON SATURDAY: CBS
BREAKING: Russia just sold physical gold from its central bank reserves for the first time in 25 years. And then Putin signed a decree banning the export of refined gold bars over 100 grams. Selling gold while banning gold exports. That sounds contradictory until you understand the mechanism. The Central Bank of Russia sold 300,000 troy ounces in January and 200,000 in February 2026 per CBR and MinFin data reported by bne IntelliNews. Total: 500,000 ounces, roughly 15 tonnes, worth approximately 3.5 trillion rubles. Reserves dropped to 74.3 million ounces, a four-year low. Russia is not selling gold because it is desperate. Russia is selling gold because yuan is more useful than gold when you need rubles for a war budget, and converting yuan to rubles has become nearly impossible through the banking system. Here is the part the market has not connected. Russia receives enormous yuan inflows. Roughly 80 to 90 percent of Russia-China bilateral trade now settles in yuan or rubles per Carnegie and Trade Data Monitor. Russian banks hold over $60 billion in yuan assets. The yuan has replaced the dollar as Russia’s primary foreign currency. But yuan cannot pay Russian soldiers or fund domestic military procurement. That requires rubles. On March 18, the Central Bank of Russia exhausted its RMB 5 billion yuan swap facility. Demand for this facility was zero a year ago. Overnight yuan borrowing rates on the Moscow Exchange spiked above 20 percent per the Moscow Times and Sovcombank data. Chinese banks have been tightening compliance on Russian transactions due to fear of US secondary sanctions, with processing delays reaching 18 days in some cases. Russia is drowning in yuan it cannot spend domestically. Gold solves this. The CBR sells physical gold bars on the domestic market. Buyers pay in rubles. The rubles go directly into the federal budget. No yuan conversion needed. No printing press inflation. No dependence on Chinese banking compliance. Gold at roughly $4,400 per ounce means Russia is monetizing its reserves at record prices, extracting maximum ruble value per ounce sold. The May 1 export ban completes the logic. Deputy Finance Minister Moiseev stated the rationale explicitly: gold bars had become a tool for capital flight and shadow economy transactions, functioning as an illicit foreign exchange substitute. The ban on bars over 100 grams keeps the physical metal inside Russia while allowing the CBR to continue domestic sales for budget liquidity. Banks are exempt. Now connect this to the broader architecture. China tolerates Russia’s gold sales because they stabilize a partner whose fiscal collapse would disrupt China’s primary overland energy supply. Russia stabilized by gold sales remains a reliable supplier of discounted oil and gas settled in yuan. The trade loop stays intact. The ruble bridge stays funded. The de-dollarization testbed keeps running. This is not “Russia dumping gold in panic.” This is a sovereign state operating a dual-currency regime where yuan handles trade and gold handles fiscal liquidity, because the banking infrastructure connecting the two currencies has been deliberately degraded by the same sanctions architecture that was supposed to isolate Russia from global markets. The sanctions created the yuan dependency. The yuan dependency created the ruble liquidity gap. The liquidity gap created the gold sales. The gold sales fund the war. The war sustains the Hormuz crisis. The Hormuz crisis accelerates yuan settlement at the strait. The snake is eating its own tail again. Full analysis - open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
Impt announcement from RBI on Friday evening that can strengthen rupee: -RBI limits NOP-INR positions of banks in the onshore market to $100 mln -Alert: NOP-INR means net open dollar-rupee positions of banks -RBI directs banks to bring down their open positions to $100 mln by April 10 -Bankers say banks may be holding long $ positions much more than $100 mln -Sale of the excess long dollar position can lead to a sharp rise in the rupee on Monday dealers say.
1/2 Just came across these two videos of training in Commando School, Belgaum. INTENSE .. is the word! The trainee here is terrified .. yet he works hard to stay calm and overcome his fears. Don't miss the cheers in the background!
Received a telephone call from my brother, His Highness Sheikh Sabah Al Khaled Al Hamad Al Sabah, Crown Prince of Kuwait, this afternoon. I reiterated Pakistan’s strong condemnation of the attacks on Kuwait and reaffirmed our unwavering solidarity with the brotherly people of Kuwait. I expressed our heartfelt condolences on the loss of precious lives and prayed for the swift recovery of the injured. I also apprised His Highness of Pakistan’s ongoing diplomatic efforts to promote dialogue and de-escalation in the Middle East. Grateful to the Crown Prince of Kuwait who fully endorsed Pakistan’s efforts for mediation between Iran and the U.S. and appreciated Pakistan’s support to Kuwait in the current crisis. I reaffirmed Pakistan’s commitment to continue playing a constructive role for peace and stability in the region.
*TURKEY SOLD OR SWAPPED 58 TONS OF GOLD IN 2 WEEKS TO MARCH 20 And that's why gold plunged
BREAKING: Iran's attacks on US military bases across the Middle East have forced many American troops to "work remotely" due to "severe" damage, per NYT. Details include: 1. Many American troops have had to relocate to hotels and office spaces throughout the Middle East 2. An "exception" has been made for fighter pilots and crews operating and maintaining warplanes and conducting strikes 3. Iran has "urged people" to report these new locations to the IRGC 4. Iranian officials have accused the US of using civilians as human shields by putting American troops in hotels US officials say the damage to US bases reflects a "miscalculation."
