Fishtown Capital

@learnlearnfree @DeepIceValue I have no idea what that means.

@FishtownCap @DeepIceValue Did you adjust for geopolitical risk?

I guess we know now why $BRK.B was stacking $OXY and $CVX for years while the price was not amazing..

@Stlbeerman68 Agree and I've spoken directly with ET IR and told them exactly this!

@FishtownCap K-1 holds it back. If they converted to an Up-C, it would pop. I will keep holding

$ET Energy Transfer While everything NG is popping this is still $19. $9 billion in DCF on a $64 billion market cap, irreplaceable NA based assets that are just getting more valuable, investing heavily in natural gas. This should be $25.

@CousinGraig Agreed. This is way bigger than tariffs IMO.

Odd how market panicked quickly in face of tariffs. An action that could be unilaterally, quickly undone but was priced as structural phenomena. Today, the war may or may not be unilateral and certain damage cannot be immed undone, yet mkt pricing it as temporary.

@StoneHillWealth @DeepIceValue Still a garbage investment. Almost and could very easily have gone to 0 in 2020. Was trading 30 cents on the dollar at one point. The entire market has more that doubled since 2019, these have returned half that.

@FishtownCap @DeepIceValue Not the preferred

@DeepIceValue LOL

@FishtownCap You dont understand long term investing

@DeepIceValue "Lol" They're barely breakeven on it, and it's underperformed the broader market by 60% since they entered it, and it's underperformed $XLE by 50%. It was, and is, a bad investment.

@FishtownCap Lol

@aakashgupta Imagine actually believing that “late fees” caused Blockbusters failure, and not the technological shift to streaming.

Blockbuster made $800 million a year charging late fees. Customers hated it so much the company went bankrupt. Two indie developers just made a game where you charge those same late fees, and it launched with a 99% positive review score. The difference is one word: consent. Handing a late fee to an NPC is play. Getting charged $4 for returning Titanic two days late was punishment for enjoying a Friday night ritual you loved. The browse. The wall of new releases. The kid begging for candy at the counter. That experience was Blockbuster’s actual product. The late fee was a tax on it. In 2000, Netflix offered to sell itself to Blockbuster for $50 million. Blockbuster’s CEO laughed them out of the room. By September 2010, Blockbuster’s 9,094 stores were worth $24 million combined. Netflix is worth $400 billion today. The reason is the same reason this game works. Blockbuster’s management looked at the P&L and saw late fees as a revenue line. They never saw them as the compound interest on customer resentment. $800 million a year in recurring hostility. When Netflix offered the same movies with no punishment, the switch was instant. 84,300 employees. 9,094 locations. Gone. Meanwhile, two developers at Blood Pact Studios built the part Blockbuster accidentally threw away. The Friday night ritual, the shelving, the customer interactions, the tape rewinding. Simulation games now account for 9.76% of all Steam revenue. Job simulators alone have generated $1.36 billion lifetime. The shop sim is the single most predictable path to indie success on the platform. Retro Rewind hit #5 top seller on Steam on launch day with zero marketing budget. Blockbuster had $6 billion in annual revenue and couldn’t survive the thing two people just turned into a $16 game. The movie was never the product. The store was.

@Michigan_Value But it's so much faster to guess a number out of thin air! Again, nice job. I'm on board here now (smaller position because this is really not my wheelhouse.)

@FishtownCap LOL sorry, no DCF, and I don't model to fit guidance, I model to fit data

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@kingdomcapadv @shortbus_ace Of course not.. but I do think the wealth effect is real, I think it's unlikely the next few years in the market are as good as the last few.

@FishtownCap @shortbus_ace Are you suggesting there’s nothing left for the wealthy to consume?

if there was no oil shock right now, would you be worried about a consumer pullback? explain your answer in replies if you would be so generous

@kingdomcapadv @shortbus_ace What toys are left for the wealthy to buy? How will they feel if/when the market declines?

@shortbus_ace Fair, but also not worried about the wealthy continuing to spend

@GreyHairOpsGuy @rleewilson21 Cool narrative. I bet this time is different.

@FishtownCap @rleewilson21 That money goes back to investors now - not back into drilling. Time have changed

WTI near $100… but don’t expect a shale boom. Permian is bottlenecked (gas takeaway), and new pipes don’t hit until ’26. Elsewhere? Backwardation + capital discipline = limited response. Higher prices → better cash flow, not more barrels.

@shortbus_ace @leticale Not really, but AI might be the excuse in many cases. Just looking like hiring is very tepid to me. I think big tech might finally be serious about trimming fat.

@FishtownCap @leticale because of AI?

Thoughts going into next week (would love feedback.) Full disclosure, degrossed/hedged 75% of my account Friday, leaving mostly energy and defensives, plus some longer term/low basis positions. $SPY at 6750. We went under 5000 last April on something far less serious IMO. Not just Iran but weak jobs report with negative revisions. Adding an moderate energy shock against this backdrop isn't good. We also see some selling as people pay taxes this time of year. I agree with @EnergyCynic that $70 WTI is the new $55. I think pipelines will be winners here between their defensive nature and increased drilling. I'm actively looking for shorts to hedge further. I think $WMT and $COST are juicy up here. Would love ideas on others. I think any shock that leads to a pullback/pause on the AI/Datacenter investments has broader implications for the market. I think could be 2022 all over again. Not trying to add to the fear, but I think this is a time to be defensive.

@shortbus_ace @leticale Employment mostly, especially higher end white collar. It's a moderate concern.

@FishtownCap @leticale what has you most worried about consumer pullback outside of oil?

@leticale @shortbus_ace I'm bullish big tech here (and I'm not traditionally a tech investor) but a major energy driven consumer pullback won't leave much untouched.

@FishtownCap @shortbus_ace Agreed. I just wish I could short $IWM instead, but it risks not being as correlated to a consumer pullback thesis as $IWM is too small. Shorting big tech requires hedging general improvements in AI, which is doable but requires much closer monitoring of the technology.

@leticale @shortbus_ace We're at 2 sigma's in almost every valuation metric. A generally consumer pullback will hit big tech too.

@FishtownCap @shortbus_ace The only names in the top 15 in $QQQ by weight that I would short independently is $WMT $COST. If you hold everything in the top 15 flat besides $WMT $COST, then everything else needs to drop by 10.53% to get the index down 5%.

@GreyHairOpsGuy @rleewilson21 Fairly certain the shale drillers and integrated majors have this money.

@FishtownCap @rleewilson21 Who specifically will give me a $100-$500MM loan to drill rn? Because I will.