@sadvalueinvestr @shortbus_ace My man is waking up and choosing violence today.
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Fishtown Capital
20.9K posts
Fishtown Capital
@FishtownCap
Mostly finance nerd, plus Tech/Med Device space
Philadelphia, PA Katılım Ağustos 2009
807 Takip Edilen5.2K Takipçiler
@shortbus_ace @FishtownCap Sea Girt but was just giving him the nod haha
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I’m at the Parker House and there are some trash fits here rn
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@shortbus_ace @sadvalueinvestr "By Belmar". I knew it was a nearby town, just forgot which, didn't care enough to google. We used to get a shuttle bus that charged $5/head to take us to/from Belmar
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@abroninvestor Nice writeup. I have $AER at a max position size so I'm not sure I want more aircraft leasing exposure, but I'm surprised Avation is still this cheap.
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A quick update on $AVAP.L Avation PLC with recent leasing news and ongoing share buybacks. open.substack.com/pub/andrewbrow…
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@BourbonCap Definitely going to $200. Azure isn’t growing either I heard 😂
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$MSFT GitHub just had the best month ever
We're definitely going to zero but growing +20%
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@sadvalueinvestr God bless. I miss those days. Did a summer 3 blocks from Djais
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@shortbus_ace @VolteFaceInvest I wonder how much of government healthcare spend is this bullshit. It’s wild.
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@FishtownCap @VolteFaceInvest We should start prosecuting fully and giving the whistleblowers a cut of the fraud uncovered
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So everytime this kid with a camera shows up he can find millions in theft in a couple days...EVERYWHERE he goes.
jay plemons@jayplemons
Nick Shirley uncovers an adult day care in Flushing, Queens with 7,000 phantom members. Nick: “This public document says you have 7,899 members.” Employee: “No, we don’t have 7,000 members.” Nick: “So you’re overbilling then? You’re getting paid $1,600 per patient — that’s how you got $12.9 million in 2024.” Employee: “Please leave.” American taxpayer dollars at work.
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@Stockcounsel I’m long $Meta (see my timeline.) the point was more about a 1.5T company swinging 10% on vibes. And I also think the market is asleep on the value of the company serving these models to most of corporate America
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@FishtownCap Yeah, I misread your point. The 2021 reference to $META, which is trading at a 15-17x forward P/E, got me motivated to quickly fire off a response.
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$META went $600 to $580 on news from 2 days ago then to $638 AH on AI release news.
Market approaching 2021 absurdity.
In a couple years all models are so good they’re commodities and $MSFT is the winner as the massive window deploying it to the enterprise.
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@FishtownCap You obviously haven’t used better models. Copilot is trash. $META has two moats on this front: lowest cost producer and distribution advantage. They will crush $MSFT on this and they will also nibble away at their cloud business.
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Despite $QQQ inclusion and crazy price targets as Wall St. whores out for future underwriting fees $SPCX SpaceX drops 12% this week
Those who got IPO shares via $MS/eTrade, SoFi & $HOOD can sell Monday.
$2T valuation still 5x private market value from a year ago.
Busted IPO?
GURGAVIN@gurgavin
ALL 1 YEAR SPACEX PRICE TARGETS ARE HERE AS THE QUIET PERIOD ENDED TODAY $SPCX RAYMOND JAMES $800 MORGAN STANLEY $300 DEUTSCHE BANK $255 OPPENHEIMER $250 CANTOR FITZGERALD $246 BERNSTEIN $239 BANK OF AMERICA $235 WELLS FARGO $230 RBC $225 JP MORGAN $225 UBS $210 GOLDMAN SACHS $205 NEEDHAM $200 CURRENT PRICE $150
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@zackmilles @DiogenesLaertus Interesting read, generally agree based on what I'm seeing.
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@FishtownCap @DiogenesLaertus Good debate. I wrote an article about this earlier this year in case of interest.
zackmilles.com/p/saasapocalyp…
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@FishtownCap If AI is commodity then the company with the best distribution wins. In consumer, that’s Meta
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@IntuitMachine No argument there. I think $SPCX (the stock price) is in trouble.
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@IntuitMachine Exactly the point of the post (some trolls were trying to call my jealous. I'm still long $META!)
The narrative can drive a $1.6T company 20% in 36 hours is just insane.
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@FishtownCap Market is narrative based. That supposedly Meta can extract revenue from AI. (1) by selling compute (2) by selling tokens. It's open question whether customers will come.
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I'm not touching my position, it's appropriately sized, since I cut it in half at $625 a week ago (I felt like a genius yesterday morning and almost brought it back up, but didn't.) I'm watching my S&P500 member company full scale adopt CoPilot at $30/user/month and Azure on fire.. Look how fast $META is flying with sentiment improving, I think $MSFT could go from current levels back over $500 quickly.
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@FishtownCap Kind of think it may overshoot, but fading it here would make sense. I like your $MSFT take
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@shortbus_ace A touch less so since it's up $100 from my buy price.. and I think it fades here at $670. But medium term yes.
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@FishtownCap But AI has shown the most utility for software engineers and Apple is extremely competitive in OS share for SWEs
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Business use but solo. Believe me, operating in a major 50k+ corporate environment is far different, cybersecurity is #1 concern still, Microsoft hugely entrenched. There's a reason paid CoPilot seats increased 33% QoQ in Q2.
I'm not sure they need their own. I think they work great as a distributor. Regardless, I'm not sure how hard it would be to develop one given their financial resources.
Good discussion, will be interesting to see how it plays out.
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@FishtownCap I run my own businesses and build and maintain our ERP/e-commerce Apps in house so it’s business use.
AAPL sells enough handsets and iPads.They can be a distributor if they so wish.
MSFT has to own its IP for reasons outlined by A.Karp from PLTR. They must have an LLM.
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@DiogenesLaertus Do you use any of these products in a corporate environment? Or mostly a home user?
Why does it need its own LLM? Maybe its value is just the distribution?
Why doesn't anyone care that $AAPL has absolutely nothing for any of this?
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@FishtownCap They have a long way to go to catchup. A loooong way. Not clear to me they have time or talent. Even meta looks like it’s figured it out and now has a capable frontier model. Msft does not have its own LLM yet. They just have the scraps from open AI. I’m not confident at all.
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