Matt_Knows

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Matt_Knows@Flex__Trades·6d

3 weeks later now 🔮— If multiple closes below respective 50sma raised caution flag, multiple closes and lower lows below respective 200sma is basically “red alert” for me. Still no sign of panic / capitulation. Markets don’t “need” this for a bottom to form, but it definitely expedites things. $SPY $QQQ

Things I know for certain— -My portfolio does best when growth/ tech (QQQ) is trending above 50sma (higher highs, higher lows… real simple). -Bonus when strong growth/ tech theme is present (usually a certainty if megas are in that strong of a trend), huge bonus when that strong theme is producing highly constructive, liquid medium/ small cap names. -QQQ has spent 5 weeks trading below its 50sma. -Themes in this context have been evaporated for months now. -I have no edge conducive for explosive growth in my portfolio in this environment. -Extremely easy to get caught with pants down and have little mistakes compound into deep wounds in this environment. So for me, it’s that simple. Until QQQ either 1) capitulates (not even close to that yet) or 2) constructs itself back above its respective 50sma, I’m basically sitting on my hands outside of a few bunt attempts here and there.

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Matt_Knows@Flex__Trades·13 Mar

Ignoring the noise of war and geopolitical expert opinions (they’re everywhere on fintwit, it’s fascinating!)— If you asked me what kind of tape / environment / chart structure presents the lowest edge possible for my style trading, I’d show you these charts. $SPY $QQQ

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Matt_Knows@Flex__Trades·13 Mar

One week later and nothing has changed. Sloppy tape below 50sma = no edge. Capitulation would help expedite the digestion process, but there’s still a ton of demand into washouts, which has made everything relatively orderly so far (boring and slow). $SPY $QQQ

Things I know for certain— -My portfolio does best when growth/ tech (QQQ) is trending above 50sma (higher highs, higher lows… real simple). -Bonus when strong growth/ tech theme is present (usually a certainty if megas are in that strong of a trend), huge bonus when that strong theme is producing highly constructive, liquid medium/ small cap names. -QQQ has spent 5 weeks trading below its 50sma. -Themes in this context have been evaporated for months now. -I have no edge conducive for explosive growth in my portfolio in this environment. -Extremely easy to get caught with pants down and have little mistakes compound into deep wounds in this environment. So for me, it’s that simple. Until QQQ either 1) capitulates (not even close to that yet) or 2) constructs itself back above its respective 50sma, I’m basically sitting on my hands outside of a few bunt attempts here and there.

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Matt_Knows@Flex__Trades·6 Mar

Things I know for certain— -My portfolio does best when growth/ tech (QQQ) is trending above 50sma (higher highs, higher lows… real simple). -Bonus when strong growth/ tech theme is present (usually a certainty if megas are in that strong of a trend), huge bonus when that strong theme is producing highly constructive, liquid medium/ small cap names. -QQQ has spent 5 weeks trading below its 50sma. -Themes in this context have been evaporated for months now. -I have no edge conducive for explosive growth in my portfolio in this environment. -Extremely easy to get caught with pants down and have little mistakes compound into deep wounds in this environment. So for me, it’s that simple. Until QQQ either 1) capitulates (not even close to that yet) or 2) constructs itself back above its respective 50sma, I’m basically sitting on my hands outside of a few bunt attempts here and there.

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Matt_Knows@Flex__Trades·5 Şub

$BTC Update

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Matt_Knows@Flex__Trades·21 Kas

$BTC Update

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Matt_Knows@Flex__Trades·4 Kas

Inverse $BTC looking spicy.

How many large-mid cap coins dropped 50+% today? Imagine the liquidation event when shit really does hit the fan. They’re all proxy’s for risk appetite. Nothing more. When that evaporates, everyone rings the register at once. Paper cuts today $BTC $ETH

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Matt_Knows@Flex__Trades·31 Ara

Take a look back at your biggest winners and biggest losers of 2025. If you’re trading with a dedicated system, there’s a high likelihood the clusters on both ends share similar characteristics. If you know what works, lean into it. If you know what doesn’t work, avoid it. Challenge yourself next year to refine your system even further. Wishing everyone a happy new years 💪

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Matt_Knows@Flex__Trades·20 Kas

The only noteworthy change of tone here to me would be if indices crawl their way back north today / over the next few days. Regardless, we’re very clearly in the same choppy mess we’ve been in. I’m patient.

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Matt_Knows@Flex__Trades·20 Kas

Anomalous gap downs in strong environments = buy the dip Anomalous gap ups in weak environments = sell the rip Multiple days of close below 50sma followed by ~1-2% gap ups, bears have called the bluff so far. Line in sand are lows from 10/10. $SPY $QQQ

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Matt_Knows@Flex__Trades·19 Kas

Psychologically, it’s a difficult transition going from hyper active, scores of actionable setups, everything’s working… to basically doing nothing. The difficultly of this mental pivot can’t be overstated enough. If longevity is what you desire, you’ll learn to adapt.

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Matt_Knows@Flex__Trades·17 Kas

Indices continue to digest the mega move off April lows. Short term path of least resistance is lower in my opinion. Im cautious and cash heavy, but not alarmed at this time. Even if my personal line in the sand (lows from 10/10) is breached, I think the is sets up potential for good opportunity. The quicker the flush, the better the opportunity becomes (more speed favors “panic” = want to participate. Slower speed is boring and turns into a choppy nightmare= avoid). $SPY $QQQ

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Matt_Knows@Flex__Trades·17 Kas

$BTC Following through nicely. Ideally we see something resembling panic soon.

Inverse $BTC looking spicy.

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Matt_Knows@Flex__Trades·7 Kas

@Conroy423 I like where your head is at

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C@Conroy423·7 Kas

@Flex__Trades I think the Qs either bounce just below $599.74 or move down to $573 and chop a bit - the amount of froth / weak hands that need to be removed makes me think the latter

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