Flippin DV

@MisesChair @MassieforKY What is the highest ever turnout for a KY Republican Congressional Primary? How many does Massie need to overcome the Boomers?

After doing some intensive groking on all the available data, I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that @MassieforKY is going to win on Tuesday. Here’s why (Warning: Long Post): 1. The Generational divide + the unique demographics of the district. Massie is winning every age demo except 65+. A slight lead looks like it goes back and forth in the 50-64 bracket, but it looks like that skews based on over/under 60. So you can reasonably deduce that 60+ breaks hard for Gallrein. Like 65/35. Massie is hit hard here. BUT, for all that you hear about boomers’ propensity for voting, heres where things get interesting. Within that district, 60+ represents roughly 23% of registered Republican voters. And thats on the high end. The median age of voters in the district is 39.7 years old. Right in the sweet spot of Massie’s strongest demo. I had grok give me aggregated breakdowns for Massie’s age demographics across all of the available polls for below 60 years old and it looks something like this: *Note: the data gives me ranges based on the aggregates. Say demo X Massie Has 77 to 82%. I’m going to go w the medians here, rounded down. So I’d call that example 79%. The picture is still clear if you just take the low ends. 18-29 (8-10% of registered Republicans) - 77% Massie 30-44 (20-25% of registered Republicans) - 67% Massie 45-59 (25-30% of registered Republicans) - 57% Massie Long story short, the pathway for Gallrein to win is very high 60+ turnout and very low 59 and under turnout. Ok, could happen. After-all theres been an an absolute deluge of foreign funded ads aimed straight at boomers. Whats reflected in the data? 2. The Enthusiasm Gap Granted, only @Peoples_Pundit has measured this in his polls but what he found was: Extremely enthusiastic: Massie +2 Very enthusiastic: Massie +12 Moderately enthusiastic: Gallrein +22 Not at all enthusiastic: Gallrein +32 These numbers are somewhat correlated with likelihood to show up at the polls. Massie wins with the most likely to show up to the polls where Gallrein has concentrations in lukewarm and not excited at all voters. These are lower propensity voters. What does this mean? Going back to number 1, the base inertia to win is heavily in Massies favor, hence historic amounts of money being dumped in. What that money has to go on to achieve for Gallrein to win is something like 75%+ of 60+ voters (roughly only 23% of registered Rs) to turnout and at the same time, under 50% of under 60 with particularly low millennial turnout. Thats a tall order. Especially when you consider that while Gallrein is dominating the airwaves, Massie is dominating the ground-troops, door knocks and event turn-outs. Door knocking is the single strongest GOTV activity. 3. Early Voting So we know what pattern has to be displayed in order for Gallrein to win. The best we have right now are opaque looks into the early voting numbers. What we know is that there is a surge of about 75% in early voting compared to last cycle. That by itself bodes well for Massie beings that early voting = high propensity voters where Massie has the advantage. Further more, when you look at the county-by-county breakdown, the highest numbers of early votes came from the youngest, densest counties. Again an advantage for Massie. Baris currently models that Massie may have a roughly 57.4% to 42.6% advantage in the early voting on a bit over 33,000 votes with an expected turnout of 100,000 to 120,000. *This data does not yet include the final day of early voting figures yet*. Yet, with an estimated +15 so far, assuming that pattern holds given early voting = High propensity voters where Massie has an advantage, if we assume that the updated figured brings us into 50,000+ voted, Gallrein will be really up against it om election day and need something crazy like 65% of the voted to overcome the advantage. So I predict: Massie will win and emerge as the official leader of America First.

@BoldLiberty 2011 or 2014?

So let me get this straight. Ed Gallrein wants to lecture Kentucky conservatives about honor and integrity while facing questions about whether he inflated his military awards from 3 Bronze Stars to 4? That’s not a typo. That’s the kind of thing people call stolen valor. His own records, LinkedIn, official Navy paperwork, past bios, and campaign materials for YEARS all reportedly said 3 Bronze Stars. Then suddenly during a congressional campaign it becomes 4? And while running for office, court records show he was leaning on his wife financially during his failed State Senate campaign, filed for divorce a month after losing, and now reportedly owes money tied to a divorce settlement including payments connected to her two cats. So the “America First warrior” backed by the establishment is: • Accused of embellishing military honors • Facing questions about overlapping employment timelines • Divorced his wife after losing an election • Still tied up in court ordered payments years later Meanwhile they want voters to believe Thomas Massie is the problem because he votes against trillion dollar spending bills. Washington loves obedient rubber stamps. That’s why they’re trying to replace Massie with a manufactured candidate wrapped in military branding and Trump slogans.

@Ryanmatta The sun is still out and you guys are still strokin each other in private.... you're not trying to win this election.

Not one politician in Washington DC would even let me get within questioning distance of them. Let alone invite 30 podcasters into thier house without a script and a full security detail.

@kaminner121 @mattgaetz @MassieforKY Contributions From Kentucky (per FEC.gov) 117 - Total $94,070 - Avg $921 = Israel Ed 489 - Total $238,312 - Avg $487 = MASSIE

@FlippinDV @mattgaetz @MassieforKY Small potatoes. We know who’s funding him.

Big crowd in the rain for @MassieforKY

@kaminner121 @mattgaetz @MassieforKY According to the FEC, MASSIE has gotten exactly 489 contributions from KY with an average of $487 for a total of $238,312 donated from Kentucky.

@FlippinDV @mattgaetz @MassieforKY It adds way up moron. Do a little research. fec.gov

@kaminner121 @mattgaetz @MassieforKY According to the FEC, Israel Ed has gotten exactly 117 contributions from the entire state of KY with an average of $921 for a total of $94,070 donated from Kentucky.

@cabsav456 Go one step farther. 80,000 votes would be near record territory for KY. So lets say its breaks all records and there are 100,000 votes. How much will be spent per vote?

In case people aren't fully grasping the absurdity of this: The typical House primary spends $100k–$500k total (candidates + outside groups) for the entire race. Many safe-district incumbents spend almost nothing in the primary. This one? $35 million+ total spending. It's by far the most expensive U.S. House primary in history. Prior record? ~$25.4M for NY-16 in 2024 (Bowman vs. Latimer, Democratic primary). Before that? ~$17.9–19.4M for MO-1 in 2024 (Bush vs. Bell, another Democratic primary). Look into these three races and see where that money came from & why. This is a coordinated effort — and it was successful twice already. We'll see if it's successful a third time.

@catturd2 $25 Million to get rid of a do nothing Congressman? Yeah that sounds right. LOL

If Masshole loses, you’re going to see the biggest over-emotional, toddler meltdown by his doomer grifter cult, the world has ever seen. It’s going to make white liberal Karens seem sane. The funny part is, it won’t even change their lives either way, because Masshole is just a loudmouth, grandstanding carnival barker who doesn’t ever get anything done anyway.

@BooManBass @MW4Liberty Prime Act? Glyphosate? Hemp Industry? Gas Prices? Inflation? Nothing huh?

@MW4Liberty Massie constituent here Tired of him not giving a damn about a single issue affecting his district. Grandstanding about global issues nonstop doesn’t help Kentuckians.

You don’t pour 10 million dollars to gain a vote in Congress. You spend 10 million dollars to remove a voice of reason that sheds light on the treason in Congress. They don’t need Massie’s vote. They need his silence. Kentucky’s 4th District… don’t fall for it.

@mccinel @TheCharlesDowns @GoldenAgeTimes2 @RepThomasMassie You mean this standing room only crowd? Or the ones who count not get in and were waiting outside?

@TheCharlesDowns @GoldenAgeTimes2 @RepThomasMassie what's up with these weak crowds he is getting

Thomas Massie’s Monday campaign event flyer advertises free food right in the center: “LUNCH WILL BE PROVIDED Fresh ground beef burgers and hotdogs will be served.” Massie (@RepThomasMassie) has drawn lackluster crowds in Kentucky all weekend. I don’t think free food is going to fix his problems. Again, how pathetic!

@MossedBySunGod @TheCharlesDowns @RepThomasMassie To be fair that was at least one person who was VERY interested in Ed...

@TheCharlesDowns @RepThomasMassie Lackluster crowd here. I think this is Massie correct?

@chiefredhawk4 @JayTC53 Saving this for Nov. Ill check back with you to see how youre feeling after this disaster of a President looses both the House and Senate.

@FlippinDV @JayTC53 Yes. MAGA is done for the 3 millionth time. I believe you this time.

FLASHBACK🚨 JD Vance explains why Thomas Massie is no good for the GOP. "Voting against the party on every single issue. You're eventually going to make too many enemies. It's not one issue or 3 issues it's every single issue. Every time we've needed Thomas for a vote he has been unwilling to provide it" "When you always vote against the party, you can't expect the party to back you" The Republican Party is President Trump's party. Massie must go. ✌️

@ForgiatoBlow47 We can jsut pretend that the US Flag Code does NOT exist... sure why not.

HEGSETH IS ON THE GROUND IN KENTUCKY VOTE GALLREIN FIRE MASSIE

@AmFirstMAGA2 @JayTC53 JD has been saying it for years....

@JayTC53 JD said it perfect.

@chiefredhawk4 @JayTC53 Feb 2029 The Impeachment hearing start and MAGA will be done. AFAFO

@JayTC53 Love this guy. President Trump has set MAGA up for decades of success. Jd, Rubio, Hegseth, all 3 of his boys, etc.

@JayTC53 Trust JD....

@FFT1776 @PleauTrent43107 With enough KY Bourbon Im sure he would love you back LOL

@PleauTrent43107 Yeah! Love me some Pete!!

BOOM!!🔥 - Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth is in Kentucky RIGHT NOW campaigning for Ed Gallrein, Navy SEAL🫡 Massie spent years undermining Trump and the America First agenda. Kentucky, FIRE Massie! Vote Gallrein on Tuesday!

@IAPolls2022 Release the numbers in the same age brackets that KY SOS tracks and proportions of voters in previous elections. 17–24 = 8.3% 25–34 = 12.1% 35–49 = 21.8% 50–61 = 24.0% 62 & Over = 33.8%

KY-04 GOP PRIMARY POLL 🟥 Ed Gallrein: 49% 🟪 Thomas Massie: 42% ⬜️ Not sure: 9% —— • Age 18-49: Massie +9 • Age 30-44: Massie +50 • Age 45-64: Gallrein +4 • Age 65+: Gallrein +29 --- • Non White: Massie +10 • White: Gallrein +9 --- • Female: Gallrein +11 • Male: Gallrein +5 --- • College: Gallrein +8 • No College: Gallrein +5 —— @SocalStrategies | 5/15-16 | 450 LV @socaldata/note/p-198064733?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=4aupgp" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">t.co/6UhobnER5D

@BTC_Builder @jacktronprime 10/23/25 - Protect Freedom PAC last donation to Kentucky First PAC to support Massie 11/13/25 - Kiani Family Trust only donation to Protect Freedom PAC So how did Kiani's money donated 3 weeks later go to Massie?

@jacktronprime Primary sources (FEC filings via OpenSecrets) confirm Kiani’s Democratic donations, Biden ties, and some contributions in the broader pro-Massie PAC ecosystem. However, the post amplifies Kiani’s role, blurs PAC names, and interprets legal funding flows as nefarious control.…

Turns out Randy Fine was right: Massie is indeed being funded by a Democrat Iranian billionaire. There is a PAC called Freedom Works that’s run by former Rand Paul staffers. They have given millions to Massie. Where does that money come from? It comes from Joe Kiani, fbe Iranian-born Masimo CEO. This is a man who hosted Biden at his Santa Ynez ranch. So Massie is being funded not just by the Gates family, but also an Iranian Democrat mega donor. Enemies of America sure seem to love Massie.

@miamiblade96 @catturd2 Israel Ed has outspent Massie 5 to 1. They have spent more than $20 Million to silence Massie, in an election with maybe 100,000 expected turnout. Can you do math?

@catturd2 Any politician that tries to buy his nominee rather than stand on their policy for the citizens of Kentucky are bad news and ESPECIALLY MASSIE, HE IS SO CORRUPT THAT HE IS RECEIVING PLENTY OF DONATIONS FRO. THE RICH LEFTIST SO THAT HE CAN STAY IN KENTUCKY AS A RINO AND CHEAT

You have got to be kidding me. 😂😂😂 👉 🤡