Chives@ChivesWork
METEORA DLMM CHALLENGE UPDATE + STRATEGIES
This post is long long overdue, but I wanted to finally write a quick thread on the state of the market, along with some of my current strategies.
The first thing I would like to say is that the DLMM conditions are clearly more difficult. I was in-fact generally unprofitable/sideways from early February (post-libra) up until mid-march. I was able to survive though due to my ability to recognize that conditions aren't optimal, and scaled down on my position sizing.
Obviously unclear of how many DLMMers quit during this period, but I can assure you most of them lost too much due to the inability to scale down in times of less edge.
With that being said, I have seen a few guys who haven't slowed down at all, and have basically been steady killing it post libra, with little reduction in size. It’s an amazing thing to see, and we should strive to learn from them. But also, don't be hard on yourself if you have been struggling. Regardless of profitability, the environment is harder and that’s a fact.
I figure this was a good time to write this, as we are seeing the volume and plays come back. I will say, it seems like it is a lot harder to get insane fee generation. I RARELY print more than 50% in a single positions nowadays, unless it is a long term pool.
Regardless, I still play new coins daily. This is always where most of my edge has been.
How am I still doing it?
I have decreased size. I will reply to this post with some of my recent PNL cards so you can see what kind of profits I have been taking, as well as the losses I have been taking. In the past few months, I have managed to break my risk rules occasionally which have led to pretty sizeable setbacks in my journey back to portfolio sol ATH (I track this wallet only in SOL). I always preach about cutting losses quickly, but I have taken a few that I am not proud of.
However, I am proud to say that I did not revenge trade, size up even bigger, do anything emotionally rash (except hold some coins to 0 LOL). Instead, I confronted the loss, and kept my sizing the same on the next play.
I really think this is what has allowed me to stay in the game.
NOW… onto the types of plays I focus on.
1. Quick Plays
These are coins I try to find early, with the following screener criteria
100k mc - 60m mc
400k 24 hr volume
Max age 24 hrs
That’s all I use. Sorted by newest, it is very rare a coin slips past me unless I'm asleep or afk.
I still never buy spot token for the upside. I rarely, rarely, catch the initial pump. Unfortunately, I am sure the fees on the initial pumps are amazing. But I don’t want to take that risk, and almost always find them after the initial pump lol.
Next, I gauge the token on strength. Volume was always my number 1 indicator, but it seems to not be as reliable anymore. It seems a better indicator is quality of the meme/relevance to current meta.
Hopefully you are aware that volume can still be a major indicator, especially if something pulls like 15-30m in one day. But a 1m market cap coin with 5m volume can easily go to legit 0k mc in this market. I've learned the hard way.
So, what do I do?
I open nearly every decent looking coin, just to make sure I glance at every chart worth looking at.
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If I see one with strength, good meta, I will rarely try to bid on the run up.
More than usually, I have started to wait for the coin to dump 50-75% off highs before opening a range. The fees aren't as great, but I get significantly more protection. And it tends to stay in these lower ranges longer. A lot of people use Fibs to map out these regions, but I have always eyeballed it. Do whatever works for you.
Below I will include approximated ranges of some of my recent plays. You will see that I also get out very quickly after I get a decent bounce. Sometimes I have more reason to stick around.
Here are some examples:
You see I don't stay in them too long, but sometimes I will hold the fees I receive if I am bullish. Sometimes I close my position and sell my remaining balance and keep token fees.
Those charts may have not been the best example, but pretend that you cannot see the rest of the chart. Pretend all you can see is the chart leading up the point that I start the range. You will get a good idea of what a look for. Basically trying to bottom catch the range every time.
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With all of that being said, I sometimes chase coins with spot if they are pumping hard. These are generally smallers wins and have to close and open ranges constantly.
Moral of the story for me currently is that coins are getting shafted way quicker and I am no longer comfortable throwing size in to a 100 bin.
In fact I am going such small size it is laughable, but my goal right isn't to make a bunch of money.
It is to get my (now) 76 sol wallet to 100 sol.
My progress has slowed a lot, but I don't care. I am not going to destroy this challenge by betting big in conditions I am not as comfortable in.
Next strat...
