Black Moon's Almanack

-inflation expectations are well-anchored, and they are currently in a favorable position

Big picture the most important forecast revisions this year have been the expectations for stronger growth and lower unemployment. See the history of the FOMC's expectations for growth in 2021: Sep 2020: 4.0% Dec 2020: 4.2% Mar 2021: 6.5% Jun 2021: 7.0%

-Powell: we expect to see increases in supply over coming months, and inflation to move down

-Fed will provide advanced notice before changing asset purchases

Powell: Inflation oculd turn out to be higher and more persistent than we expect longer-term inflation expectations appear boradly consistent with Fed goal -would be prepared to adjust policy if inflation expectation moved too high

FOMC: 1. Fed leaves rates unchanged 2.Fed Official sees rates increasing in 2022 3. Fed forecast 2 possible hikes by end of 2023

This NFP is noise & will be forgotten in 2 months. What isn't noise is China's trade data, which point to a massive current account surplus, which in Q1 was way above history. We are flagging a 10% undervaluation of the RMB. This is the biggest imbalance in the global economy...

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3/31 8:15 am ADP payroll employment report (consensus +550k, last +117k, GS +575k) Reflecting strong underlying job growth and a boost from lower initial jobless claims. # Economic data releases this week #Economics Research

4/1 9:45 am Markit manufacturing PMI, March final (consensus 59, last 59)

Thursday 8:30 am Initial jobless claims, week ended March 27 (consensus 680k,GS 690k, last 684k) Continuing jobless claims, week ended March 20 (consensus 3,775k, last 3,870k)

10 am pending home sales, February (consensus -2.9%, Gs -5%, last -2.8) Estimating that pending home sales declined by 5 in February

9:45 am Chicago PMI, March(consensus 60, last 59.9, GS 61) Estimating taht the Chicago PMI increased by 1.5pt to 61 in March, reflecting improvement in other manufacturing surveys and a continued boost from the supplier deliveries component. #Economics

@RealTaonism Yes! exactly!

@FooledBlackMoon Entropy！

If something's completely predictable, there's zero information. But if something's completely random, you need information about everything. It's counterintuitive, but gibberish contains more information than great literature.