The Forecast Letter

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The Forecast Letter

The Forecast Letter

@ForecastLetter

🔮 Forecasting the Forecast. Geopolitics • Macro • Energy • Tech 🌎 Don't follow. The people printing money off this never told you it existed.

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The Forecast Letter
The Forecast Letter@ForecastLetter·
WHITE HOUSE POSTED "LAUNCHING SOON." DELETED IT. POSTED PIXELATED PHOTOS. ELON POSTED ABOUT THE MOON SAME DAY. 18 MILLION PEOPLE ARGUED ABOUT ALIENS. NOBODY CHECKED THE NASA WEBSITE. Connect every dot — in order: → March 25, 9.15 PM EST: White House posts 4-second video on X + Instagram Camera on woman's black boots Voice — believed to be Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt — says: "It's so cool. It's launching soon, right?" Male voice: "Yes." Caption: "Sound on." DELETED 90 minutes later. No explanation. → March 25, 10.00 PM EST: Second video Black static. American flag flashes for one frame then disappears. iPhone notification "ding" only. Phone emoji + sound emoji. 18M views. Zero explanation from White House. → March 26, Thursday: White House posts 3 pixelated photos — silhouette of what appears to be Trump White House Deputy Comms Director Kaelan Dorr reacts with eye emoji + purple alien emoji — deliberately feeding the alien theory to X → FCC — Federal Communications Commission — responds to White House with their OWN pixelated photo on X Government agencies coordinating together This is not accidental. This is a campaign. → SAME DAY: Elon Musk posted on X: "Only 66 years from first powered flight to landing on the Moon in 1969. Here we are, 76 years later, and we cannot yet return to the Moon. We should have been on Mars by now." Elon owns X. Elon knows what White House is about to announce. He posted this the same morning as the cryptic videos. That is not a coincidence. → NASA Artemis II crew — Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, Christina Koch, Jeremy Hansen — leave Houston for Kennedy Space Center TOMORROW March 27 → Artemis II launch: April 1, 2026 6.24 PM EDT — 6 days from now First humans beyond Earth orbit since Apollo 17 in 1972 — 54 years ago NASA SLS rocket sitting at Pad 39B Kennedy Space Center RIGHT NOW The historical parallel: Every president uses a space moment as a national unity reset during crisis. Reagan addressed the nation for Challenger 1986 during Cold War tension. Obama called the final shuttle crew STS-135 from Oval Office in 2011. Biden stood at Kennedy for Artemis I in 2022 during Ukraine war backdrop. Trump's version: cryptic deleted videos generating 18 million views overnight — maximum attention, zero information — building to April 1 launch day. The forecast: Trump stands at Kennedy Space Center April 1 for Artemis II launch. The image: America sending humans around the Moon for first time in 54 years while fighting a war in the Gulf. Iran approval at 38% — Pew Research confirmed this week 59% of Americans say the war was wrong decision. Artemis II is the counter-narrative. 10 days of "America goes to the Moon" replaces Iran war fatigue in the global news cycle at the exact moment Trump needs it most. Elon's post was the pre-signal. The pixelated photos were the trailer. The deleted video was the accidental leak. The launch is April 1. Everyone spent 24 hours asking "what is launching?" The Moon rocket was sitting on the pad the whole time. And Elon told you in the morning. Nobody read it that way. 👇 Satyamev Jayate 🇮🇳 #Artemis2 #IranWar #Whitehouse #Pixalated #Truth #Moon
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@BRICSinfo What Iran 🇮🇷 plans next, checkout truth don't miss it. x.com/i/status/20382…
The Forecast Letter@ForecastLetter

🚨 PENTAGON CONFIRMED #KHARGISLAND SEIZURE PLANS TODAY. THREE-STAR GENERAL ASKED 35,000 MARINES TO PACK DESERT GEAR. IRAN WILL NOT RESPOND WITH MISSILES. IRAN HAS TWO TARGETS NOBODY NAMED. BOTH UNDEFENDED. March 26 2026. Lt General Leonard F. Anderson IV sent a letter to every reservist. "Is your desert MARPAT packed? Are your family's affairs in order? This is not a theoretical exercise. Mass mobilization could become reality." Signed: "Fight's on." USS Tripoli arrived next day. 3,500 Marines. F-35Bs. Washington Post confirmed: Pentagon preparing Kharg seizure. Graham: "We did Iwo Jima. We can do this." Iran is not preparing missiles. Iran is preparing something the US Army has no name for yet. 🎯 TARGET ONE — THE KILL SWITCH Submarine cables under Hormuz. Ocean floor. 33 km wide. 150 metres deep. Shallow enough for combat divers. 📡 EPEG — Europe Persia Express Gateway Europe to India via Persian Gulf floor. 📡 SMW5 — SeaMeWe 5 Singapore to France. Lands at Fujairah. Muscat. 📡 AAE-1 — Asia Africa Europe 1 Hong Kong to France. 40% of Europe-Asia traffic. 📡 2Africa Pearls — Meta's system UAE Qatar Saudi Bahrain Kuwait Iraq Pakistan India. Meta SUSPENDED March 2026. These cables carry: ⚡ 30% of ALL intercontinental traffic ⚡ 80% of US MILITARY communications ⚡ Every SWIFT transaction ⚡ Every NYSE trade IRGC combat diver units. Trained. Equipped. Operational. Cable no thicker than a garden hose. One diver. One cut. Attribution: 72 hours. Repair: 6 months. 2024 — Houthis severed AAE-1 Seacom EIG in Red Sea. Accidentally. Ship anchor. Six months to repair. India lost 25% of Europe bandwidth. That was accidental. This would be deliberate. ⚠️ One repair vessel in Persian Gulf. ONE. Alcatel Submarine Networks issued force majeure already. Vessel stranded near Saudi Arabia. If Iran cuts 4 cables one night: 🔴 US military comms down 80% 🔴 NYSE disrupted 🔴 SWIFT disrupted 🔴 AWS Microsoft Google dark No radar signature. No satellite warning. No defense system exists for this. 🎯 TARGET TWO — THE LAST CORK Fujairah Oil Terminal. 📍 25.1881°N 56.3597°E Gulf of Oman. 130 km from Hormuz. ONLY oil terminal outside Hormuz in the entire region. Habshan-Fujairah Pipeline: 380 km. 1.8 million bpd capacity. Built by China Petroleum Engineering and Construction. Running 71%. 1.1 million bpd flowing. ⛽ Only reason Brent is not at $200. When Hormuz closed February 28: Saudi Petroline activated to Yanbu. UAE ADCOP activated to Fujairah. 5.5 million bpd bypass. Only buffer left. Fujairah is the cork in the only bottle still working. March 3 — Day 4 of the war — Drones hit Fujairah port. Fire. 3 million barrel tank. Not destroyed. ⚠️ Warning shot. If Iran hits ADCOP terminus: UAE bypass gone. Petroline to Yanbu last route. One Houthi strike on Yanbu closes the final escape. 💀 Brent $200. Within 96 hours. No SPR. No waiver. No Russia. All buffers gone. 🔮 THE FORECAST: US military planned for missiles. Patriot. THAAD. Interceptors. Zero doctrine for underwater cable warfare in a conflict zone. Zero doctrine for Fujairah as the last bypass route. Not classified secrets. Cables on TeleGeography's map. Fujairah on every shipping database. Iran has known both for years. One question: Does Kharg make using them worth the cost. When regime survival is at stake it always is. The US Army is preparing for an island assault. Iran is preparing for something the US Army has no name for yet. Two targets. Both undefended. One decision away. Watch Kharg. Watch the morning after. 👇 Forecast of the Forecast 🔮 #IranWar #Fujairah

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BRICS News@BRICSinfo·
JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 3,500 US troops officially arrive in the Middle East as the United States prepares for a ground invasion in Iran.
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The Forecast Letter
The Forecast Letter@ForecastLetter·
Iran's military targeted what it called "hideouts of American commanders and soldiers in Dubai" alongside the Ukrainian drone depot strike. Iran is naming targets in Dubai. Specifically. American commanders. Ukrainian equipment. This means Iran has human intelligence inside Dubai identifying American command personnel locations. Iran has intelligence assets inside the UAE's financial capital — the city that is supposed to be the neutral financial hub of the region. Dubai's neutrality has been compromised from inside. By Iran. On Day 29.
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Mario Nawfal
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal·
🇮🇱🇮🇷🇱🇧 Netanyahu: "Israel is striking Iran and its allies with force, shifting to an offensive strategy, operating deep in enemy territory, expanding security lines in Gaza, Syria, and Lebanon, and aiming to remove threats from its borders."
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal

🇻🇦🇮🇱🇵🇸 In October 2023, Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa offered himself in exchange for Israeli child hostages held in Gaza: “If I am ready for an exchange? Anything, if this can lead to freedom and bring those children back home, no problem. On my part, absolute willingness.” Now, he cannot celebrate Palm Sunday mass freely at the Church of the Holy Sepulchre. Source: Reuters

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@BRICSinfo Iran 🇮🇷 has plans if US 🇺🇸 attacks Kharg...checkout this. x.com/i/status/20382…
The Forecast Letter@ForecastLetter

🚨 PENTAGON CONFIRMED #KHARGISLAND SEIZURE PLANS TODAY. THREE-STAR GENERAL ASKED 35,000 MARINES TO PACK DESERT GEAR. IRAN WILL NOT RESPOND WITH MISSILES. IRAN HAS TWO TARGETS NOBODY NAMED. BOTH UNDEFENDED. March 26 2026. Lt General Leonard F. Anderson IV sent a letter to every reservist. "Is your desert MARPAT packed? Are your family's affairs in order? This is not a theoretical exercise. Mass mobilization could become reality." Signed: "Fight's on." USS Tripoli arrived next day. 3,500 Marines. F-35Bs. Washington Post confirmed: Pentagon preparing Kharg seizure. Graham: "We did Iwo Jima. We can do this." Iran is not preparing missiles. Iran is preparing something the US Army has no name for yet. 🎯 TARGET ONE — THE KILL SWITCH Submarine cables under Hormuz. Ocean floor. 33 km wide. 150 metres deep. Shallow enough for combat divers. 📡 EPEG — Europe Persia Express Gateway Europe to India via Persian Gulf floor. 📡 SMW5 — SeaMeWe 5 Singapore to France. Lands at Fujairah. Muscat. 📡 AAE-1 — Asia Africa Europe 1 Hong Kong to France. 40% of Europe-Asia traffic. 📡 2Africa Pearls — Meta's system UAE Qatar Saudi Bahrain Kuwait Iraq Pakistan India. Meta SUSPENDED March 2026. These cables carry: ⚡ 30% of ALL intercontinental traffic ⚡ 80% of US MILITARY communications ⚡ Every SWIFT transaction ⚡ Every NYSE trade IRGC combat diver units. Trained. Equipped. Operational. Cable no thicker than a garden hose. One diver. One cut. Attribution: 72 hours. Repair: 6 months. 2024 — Houthis severed AAE-1 Seacom EIG in Red Sea. Accidentally. Ship anchor. Six months to repair. India lost 25% of Europe bandwidth. That was accidental. This would be deliberate. ⚠️ One repair vessel in Persian Gulf. ONE. Alcatel Submarine Networks issued force majeure already. Vessel stranded near Saudi Arabia. If Iran cuts 4 cables one night: 🔴 US military comms down 80% 🔴 NYSE disrupted 🔴 SWIFT disrupted 🔴 AWS Microsoft Google dark No radar signature. No satellite warning. No defense system exists for this. 🎯 TARGET TWO — THE LAST CORK Fujairah Oil Terminal. 📍 25.1881°N 56.3597°E Gulf of Oman. 130 km from Hormuz. ONLY oil terminal outside Hormuz in the entire region. Habshan-Fujairah Pipeline: 380 km. 1.8 million bpd capacity. Built by China Petroleum Engineering and Construction. Running 71%. 1.1 million bpd flowing. ⛽ Only reason Brent is not at $200. When Hormuz closed February 28: Saudi Petroline activated to Yanbu. UAE ADCOP activated to Fujairah. 5.5 million bpd bypass. Only buffer left. Fujairah is the cork in the only bottle still working. March 3 — Day 4 of the war — Drones hit Fujairah port. Fire. 3 million barrel tank. Not destroyed. ⚠️ Warning shot. If Iran hits ADCOP terminus: UAE bypass gone. Petroline to Yanbu last route. One Houthi strike on Yanbu closes the final escape. 💀 Brent $200. Within 96 hours. No SPR. No waiver. No Russia. All buffers gone. 🔮 THE FORECAST: US military planned for missiles. Patriot. THAAD. Interceptors. Zero doctrine for underwater cable warfare in a conflict zone. Zero doctrine for Fujairah as the last bypass route. Not classified secrets. Cables on TeleGeography's map. Fujairah on every shipping database. Iran has known both for years. One question: Does Kharg make using them worth the cost. When regime survival is at stake it always is. The US Army is preparing for an island assault. Iran is preparing for something the US Army has no name for yet. Two targets. Both undefended. One decision away. Watch Kharg. Watch the morning after. 👇 Forecast of the Forecast 🔮 #IranWar #Fujairah

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BRICS News
BRICS News@BRICSinfo·
JUST IN: 🇮🇱🇮🇷 Another video shows the aftermath of an Iranian ballistic missile strike on an industrial zone in southern Israel.
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The Forecast Letter
The Forecast Letter@ForecastLetter·
🚨 PENTAGON CONFIRMED #KHARGISLAND SEIZURE PLANS TODAY. THREE-STAR GENERAL ASKED 35,000 MARINES TO PACK DESERT GEAR. IRAN WILL NOT RESPOND WITH MISSILES. IRAN HAS TWO TARGETS NOBODY NAMED. BOTH UNDEFENDED. March 26 2026. Lt General Leonard F. Anderson IV sent a letter to every reservist. "Is your desert MARPAT packed? Are your family's affairs in order? This is not a theoretical exercise. Mass mobilization could become reality." Signed: "Fight's on." USS Tripoli arrived next day. 3,500 Marines. F-35Bs. Washington Post confirmed: Pentagon preparing Kharg seizure. Graham: "We did Iwo Jima. We can do this." Iran is not preparing missiles. Iran is preparing something the US Army has no name for yet. 🎯 TARGET ONE — THE KILL SWITCH Submarine cables under Hormuz. Ocean floor. 33 km wide. 150 metres deep. Shallow enough for combat divers. 📡 EPEG — Europe Persia Express Gateway Europe to India via Persian Gulf floor. 📡 SMW5 — SeaMeWe 5 Singapore to France. Lands at Fujairah. Muscat. 📡 AAE-1 — Asia Africa Europe 1 Hong Kong to France. 40% of Europe-Asia traffic. 📡 2Africa Pearls — Meta's system UAE Qatar Saudi Bahrain Kuwait Iraq Pakistan India. Meta SUSPENDED March 2026. These cables carry: ⚡ 30% of ALL intercontinental traffic ⚡ 80% of US MILITARY communications ⚡ Every SWIFT transaction ⚡ Every NYSE trade IRGC combat diver units. Trained. Equipped. Operational. Cable no thicker than a garden hose. One diver. One cut. Attribution: 72 hours. Repair: 6 months. 2024 — Houthis severed AAE-1 Seacom EIG in Red Sea. Accidentally. Ship anchor. Six months to repair. India lost 25% of Europe bandwidth. That was accidental. This would be deliberate. ⚠️ One repair vessel in Persian Gulf. ONE. Alcatel Submarine Networks issued force majeure already. Vessel stranded near Saudi Arabia. If Iran cuts 4 cables one night: 🔴 US military comms down 80% 🔴 NYSE disrupted 🔴 SWIFT disrupted 🔴 AWS Microsoft Google dark No radar signature. No satellite warning. No defense system exists for this. 🎯 TARGET TWO — THE LAST CORK Fujairah Oil Terminal. 📍 25.1881°N 56.3597°E Gulf of Oman. 130 km from Hormuz. ONLY oil terminal outside Hormuz in the entire region. Habshan-Fujairah Pipeline: 380 km. 1.8 million bpd capacity. Built by China Petroleum Engineering and Construction. Running 71%. 1.1 million bpd flowing. ⛽ Only reason Brent is not at $200. When Hormuz closed February 28: Saudi Petroline activated to Yanbu. UAE ADCOP activated to Fujairah. 5.5 million bpd bypass. Only buffer left. Fujairah is the cork in the only bottle still working. March 3 — Day 4 of the war — Drones hit Fujairah port. Fire. 3 million barrel tank. Not destroyed. ⚠️ Warning shot. If Iran hits ADCOP terminus: UAE bypass gone. Petroline to Yanbu last route. One Houthi strike on Yanbu closes the final escape. 💀 Brent $200. Within 96 hours. No SPR. No waiver. No Russia. All buffers gone. 🔮 THE FORECAST: US military planned for missiles. Patriot. THAAD. Interceptors. Zero doctrine for underwater cable warfare in a conflict zone. Zero doctrine for Fujairah as the last bypass route. Not classified secrets. Cables on TeleGeography's map. Fujairah on every shipping database. Iran has known both for years. One question: Does Kharg make using them worth the cost. When regime survival is at stake it always is. The US Army is preparing for an island assault. Iran is preparing for something the US Army has no name for yet. Two targets. Both undefended. One decision away. Watch Kharg. Watch the morning after. 👇 Forecast of the Forecast 🔮 #IranWar #Fujairah
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The Forecast Letter
The Forecast Letter@ForecastLetter·
@BRICSinfo China 🇨🇳 has plans.. x.com/i/status/20381…
The Forecast Letter@ForecastLetter

🚨 EVERYONE IS ASKING WHEN CHINA 🇨🇳 ATTACKS TAIWAN. WRONG QUESTION. CHINA IS RUNNING THE LARGEST REAL-TIME MILITARY INTELLIGENCE COLLECTION OPERATION IN HISTORY. RIGHT NOW. ON YOUR FEED. February 24 2026 — four days before Operation Epic Fury — a Chinese company called MizarVision created an X account. First post: satellite imagery of US military buildup. F-22s at Ovda Israel. Seven AWACS at Prince Sultan. Patriot batteries at Al Udeid Qatar. Operation Epic Fury launched 24 hours later. MizarVision uses China's Jilin-1 constellation — 300+ satellites operated by Chang Guang Satellite Technology — the same company the US sanctioned in April 2025 for supplying imagery to Houthi forces in the Red Sea. The PLA also released a video titled: "Siege of Iran: Where will the US military launch its attack?" Eight US bases shown under Chinese monitoring. Patriot locations at Al Udeid, Al Dhafra and Prince Sultan all publicly identified. This is not journalism. This is a kill chain demonstration. China showed Iran what to target before the war began. China is learning while Iran fights with Chinese eyes: Yaogan military satellites combined with Jilin-1 are tracking US radar activation cycles, missile launch signatures, carrier movements and logistics flow rates across every base in the Middle East. Iran's missiles now run on China's BeiDou navigation — not US GPS. Harder to jam. Every Iranian missile that hits a US base is a live data point on how Patriot and THAAD respond. Response times. Intercept angles. Radar frequencies. Reload cycles. Everything. Six things China is studying that matter for Taiwan: One — How THAAD and Patriot handle simultaneous multi-axis swarm attacks. Iran tests this daily. Two — How fast US restocks interceptors. Lockheed makes 620 Patriots per year. Iran burned through years of production in days. Three — Carrier vulnerability under sustained missile threat. USS Gerald R. Ford caught fire and retreated to Croatia. Real conflict data. Not simulation. Four — BeiDou performance against US jamming. Every hit is a validation test for China's own missile guidance. Five — US political pain threshold. 15 troops wounded. KC-135s destroyed. Trump extended the deadline. China is calibrating exactly what forces US political retreat. Six — Whether Japan intervenes for a US ally under 30 days of attack. Japan did not intervene for Iran. China recorded that. The deep layer nobody knows: December 29 2025 — 61 days before the Iran war — China ran Justice Mission 2025. Largest Taiwan blockade drill in history. 14 warships. 130 aircraft. Full simulation of blockading Taiwan's two largest ports. China drilled the scenario before the window opened. This week satellite imagery confirms 500+ converted J-6 fighter jets now stationed as attack drones at six air bases in Fujian and Guangdong facing Taiwan. Purpose per Taiwan's defense ministry: "Exhaust Taiwan's air defense in the first wave of attack." The forecast: China needs 90 days after the Iran war ends to complete its battlefield data analysis. Watch for three signals: Signal One — New Taiwan drill within 90 days of ceasefire. Not a patrol. A Justice Mission-scale exercise incorporating Iran lessons. China field-testing its updated plan. Signal Two — PLAN carriers moving east of Taiwan. That is not blockade practice. That is intervention denial against the US Navy. Last move before the first move. Signal Three — Trump-Xi summit delays Taiwan arms sales. China does not need to invade a Taiwan that cannot rearm. None of these have happened yet. When two of three appear — the window is not opening. It is already open. The Davidson Window was always 2027. The Iran war moved it to 2026. China is not the elephant sleeping. China is the student who just got access to the exam. The question is not when China attacks. The question is how much better the PLA fights on the day the Iran war ends versus the day it began. #China #Taiwan #PLA #TheSignal

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JUST IN: Iran war will cement China's superpower status, FT reports.
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The Forecast Letter@ForecastLetter·
@Bitcoinvics Bane nailed it — April 6 is the spark, but April 19 is when the buffers (IEA's 400M bbl release + US 30-day Iran waiver) both run dry. Real supply cliff hits then.
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🚨 THREE SUPPLY BUFFERS ARE HOLDING THE GLOBAL OIL MARKET TOGETHER. ALL THREE EXPIRE IN THE SAME 5-DAY WINDOW IN MID-APRIL. NOBODY IS WATCHING THIS DATE. Here is what is keeping oil from going to $150 right now: Buffer One — The IEA coordinated strategic reserve release. 400 million barrels. Largest in history. Covers approximately 4 days of global consumption. Running out: mid-April. Buffer Two — The Trump administration's 30-day waiver on Iranian oil sanctions allowing countries to purchase Iranian crude already loaded on vessels. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said this brings 140 million barrels to global markets. Expires: April 19 2026. Buffer Three — Russia expanding crude exports to fill the gap. A White House official confirmed this week: "We're seeing Russia stepping in to expand its exports — there's still breathing room here." Russia's pipelines are already running at full capacity. Maximum supply already reached. No more room to expand. Buffer effectively exhausted now. BCA Research's Marko Papic wrote in a client note this week: "The world will hit an oil cliff in mid-April. That number will double by mid-April becoming the largest loss of crude supply." Currently the world has lost 4.5 to 5 million barrels per day from the Iran war. By mid-April with all three buffers gone that number doubles to 9 to 10 million barrels per day. With no replacement in sight. Now add the April 6 deadline. If Trump strikes Iranian energy infrastructure on April 6: Iran retaliates against Gulf energy facilities. Oil spikes immediately. Then April 19 arrives and the sanction waiver expires simultaneously. Two shocks. Thirteen days apart. No buffer left for either one. If Trump extends the deadline again: The waiver still expires April 19. The SPR release still runs out. Russia still hits pipeline capacity. The oil cliff arrives regardless of what happens diplomatically. The market has priced April 6. The market has not priced April 19. The historical parallel: September 1973 — Arab oil embargo. The US had strategic reserves that provided 90 days of cushion. When those reserves depleted the full price shock arrived three months after the embargo started. Inflation hit 12% within 6 months. In 2026 the buffers last 7 weeks not 90 days. The shock arrives faster. The forecast: Between April 6 and April 19 is the most dangerous 13-day window in global energy markets since 1973. If no ceasefire AND the waiver expires: Brent does not go to $130. Brent goes to $150 to $170 within 96 hours of April 19. The Fed cannot cut into that. Powell cannot extend his tenure into that. Goldman's 30% recession odds double overnight. Consensus says the SPR release and Iran oil waiver are buying time for a diplomatic solution. This signal says they are buying exactly 51 days — from February 28 to April 19 — and the clock has 21 days left. Everyone is watching April 6. The date that matters is April 19. Mark it. 👇 Forecast of the Forecast 🔮 #Oil #April19
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Eight impact sites across Tel Aviv overnight including a university. One killed. Two injured. Steel and cement factories struck across southern, central Iran and Isfahan simultaneously. Residents bypassing Iran's internet blackout sent video to diaspora websites. They bombed a university in Tel Aviv. Iran bombed factories across four regions simultaneously. Universities. Cement factories. Steel mills. Both sides are now hitting the industrial and civilian infrastructure that rebuilds after wars. The post-war reconstruction of both countries is being destroyed while the war is still happening. Day 29.
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JUST IN: 🇮🇷🇮🇱 Iranian Parliament Speaker says Iran's fierce response will accelerate the "collapse" of the Israeli army.
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Hezbollah's alliance with Amal Movement led by parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri has "never been more fragile." The Lebanese financial crisis has eroded Hezbollah's ability to provide financial support to its base. Hezbollah is losing its domestic Lebanese support base simultaneously with its military battle against Israel. The organization that has survived every previous Israeli offensive by maintaining Shia community loyalty is now experiencing: military degradation, funding cuts, political isolation, and the Lebanon government banning its activities. Four simultaneous pressures. This is not the Hezbollah of 2006. Day 29.
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The Spectator Index@spectatorindex·
BREAKING: Israeli soldier killed in Hezbollah rocket attack
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Israel's Defense Minister Israel Katz: "Iran will pay heavy, increasing prices for this war crime. Despite the warnings, the firing continues. Attacks in Iran will escalate and expand to additional targets and areas." "Escalate and expand." Again. After 11 simultaneous Tehran strikes. After nuclear facility bombing. After 8,000+ total Israeli strikes. Katz has said "escalate and expand" three times in four days. Each time it is a new escalation. The phrase is no longer a warning. It is Israel's operating doctrine. The war that Israel said would last 4-6 weeks now has an official doctrine of indefinite expansion. Day 29.
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🚨 EVERYONE IS ASKING WHEN CHINA 🇨🇳 ATTACKS TAIWAN. WRONG QUESTION. CHINA IS RUNNING THE LARGEST REAL-TIME MILITARY INTELLIGENCE COLLECTION OPERATION IN HISTORY. RIGHT NOW. ON YOUR FEED. February 24 2026 — four days before Operation Epic Fury — a Chinese company called MizarVision created an X account. First post: satellite imagery of US military buildup. F-22s at Ovda Israel. Seven AWACS at Prince Sultan. Patriot batteries at Al Udeid Qatar. Operation Epic Fury launched 24 hours later. MizarVision uses China's Jilin-1 constellation — 300+ satellites operated by Chang Guang Satellite Technology — the same company the US sanctioned in April 2025 for supplying imagery to Houthi forces in the Red Sea. The PLA also released a video titled: "Siege of Iran: Where will the US military launch its attack?" Eight US bases shown under Chinese monitoring. Patriot locations at Al Udeid, Al Dhafra and Prince Sultan all publicly identified. This is not journalism. This is a kill chain demonstration. China showed Iran what to target before the war began. China is learning while Iran fights with Chinese eyes: Yaogan military satellites combined with Jilin-1 are tracking US radar activation cycles, missile launch signatures, carrier movements and logistics flow rates across every base in the Middle East. Iran's missiles now run on China's BeiDou navigation — not US GPS. Harder to jam. Every Iranian missile that hits a US base is a live data point on how Patriot and THAAD respond. Response times. Intercept angles. Radar frequencies. Reload cycles. Everything. Six things China is studying that matter for Taiwan: One — How THAAD and Patriot handle simultaneous multi-axis swarm attacks. Iran tests this daily. Two — How fast US restocks interceptors. Lockheed makes 620 Patriots per year. Iran burned through years of production in days. Three — Carrier vulnerability under sustained missile threat. USS Gerald R. Ford caught fire and retreated to Croatia. Real conflict data. Not simulation. Four — BeiDou performance against US jamming. Every hit is a validation test for China's own missile guidance. Five — US political pain threshold. 15 troops wounded. KC-135s destroyed. Trump extended the deadline. China is calibrating exactly what forces US political retreat. Six — Whether Japan intervenes for a US ally under 30 days of attack. Japan did not intervene for Iran. China recorded that. The deep layer nobody knows: December 29 2025 — 61 days before the Iran war — China ran Justice Mission 2025. Largest Taiwan blockade drill in history. 14 warships. 130 aircraft. Full simulation of blockading Taiwan's two largest ports. China drilled the scenario before the window opened. This week satellite imagery confirms 500+ converted J-6 fighter jets now stationed as attack drones at six air bases in Fujian and Guangdong facing Taiwan. Purpose per Taiwan's defense ministry: "Exhaust Taiwan's air defense in the first wave of attack." The forecast: China needs 90 days after the Iran war ends to complete its battlefield data analysis. Watch for three signals: Signal One — New Taiwan drill within 90 days of ceasefire. Not a patrol. A Justice Mission-scale exercise incorporating Iran lessons. China field-testing its updated plan. Signal Two — PLAN carriers moving east of Taiwan. That is not blockade practice. That is intervention denial against the US Navy. Last move before the first move. Signal Three — Trump-Xi summit delays Taiwan arms sales. China does not need to invade a Taiwan that cannot rearm. None of these have happened yet. When two of three appear — the window is not opening. It is already open. The Davidson Window was always 2027. The Iran war moved it to 2026. China is not the elephant sleeping. China is the student who just got access to the exam. The question is not when China attacks. The question is how much better the PLA fights on the day the Iran war ends versus the day it began. #China #Taiwan #PLA #TheSignal
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Rubio was blunt at G7: Europe calls this "not their war." He arrived not to please European colleagues but to deliver "a blunt message about the United States' agenda." The US Secretary of State flew to France to tell allies he didn't care what they thought. That is the current state of Western alliance architecture. The US Secretary of State openly stating his contempt for European opinion at a G7 foreign ministers' meeting. The post-WWII alliance system — built on consensus and burden-sharing — is being dismantled in real time. In a French abbey. On Day 27 of a war nobody in Europe endorsed. Day 28.
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Mario Nawfal
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal·
If you believe Iran is winning this war strategically (which I do), don’t ignore the fact they are being PUMMELED daily I’m surprised they’ve lasted this long, but I don’t know how much longer they can last before they break
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The Forecast Letter@ForecastLetter·
The Forecast Letter@ForecastLetter

🔮 ENERGY & COMMODITIES 🚨 TRUMP'S JONES ACT WAIVER IS THE EMERGENCY LNG STOCKPILE SIGNAL MARKETS ARE IGNORING What the data actually shows: → Trump Administration issued 60-day Jones Act waiver on March 17, 2026 under 46 U.S.C. § 55102 → One-fifth of global LNG moves through Strait of Hormuz → Natural gas powers one quarter of global energy consumption → Brent crude hit $117.27 in Q1 2026, WTI retakes $91.00 → FAO Chief Economist Máximo Torero warned of global food security risks tied to Hormuz disruption The historical parallel: Last time a Jones Act waiver was issued during Middle East tensions was September 2019 after Saudi Aramco's Abqaiq attack — US LNG spot prices spiked 34% within 11 days as emergency restocking began. The forecast: US domestic natural gas prices will surge 25-40% by April 10, 2026. The waiver allows foreign-flagged vessels to move LNG between US ports — Washington is pre-positioning for Hormuz closure before April 6 strike deadline. European buyers will front-run American stockpiling within 96 hours. Consensus says oil is the Hormuz risk. This signal says the LNG scramble hits first — and fertilizer prices follow within two weeks. Why would Washington waive cabotage laws 20 days before a possible Iran strike if they expected diplomacy to work? Satyamev Jayate 🇮🇳 #JonesActWaiver #LNGCrisis #TheSignal

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FinancialJuice
FinancialJuice@financialjuice·
🔴 Pakistan's Ishaq Dar: Iran has agreed to allow 20 additional ships under Pakistani flag to pass through Strait of Hormuz, two ships daily
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The Forecast Letter
The Forecast Letter@ForecastLetter·
IRGCN stated they blew up 10 commercial vessels in one day who attempted to travel through the Strait. One other vessel hit by a bomb near Port Muscat. 150 ships stranded around the strait. 10 vessels. One day. Blown up. 150 ships stranded. Their cargo: oil, LNG, fertilizer, grain. The inputs that keep Asia's billion-person economies running. The ships are not moving. The cargo is not arriving. The factories are not running. The food is not being made. The 150 ships stranded in the Gulf are the physical embodiment of the global supply chain crisis. Day 28.
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BRICS News
BRICS News@BRICSinfo·
JUST IN: 🇵🇰🇮🇷 Pakistan says Iran will allow 20 additional Pakistani-flagged ships through the Strait of Hormuz at a rate of 2 per day.
BRICS News tweet mediaBRICS News tweet media
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The Forecast Letter
The Forecast Letter@ForecastLetter·
Iranian missile cluster munitions exploded over Tel Aviv on Friday night. At least one person killed. CNN teams witnessed it directly. Cluster munitions over a civilian city. 28 days in. This is not Iran "running out" of weapons. This is Iran escalating the weapons profile. The war that started with ballistic missiles is now deploying cluster munitions over civilian centers. Every week this war continues, the weapon systems get worse. Not better. Day 28.
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FinancialJuice
FinancialJuice@financialjuice·
🔴 Water reservoir of Iran's southwestern town of Haftkel targeted in US-Israeli air attack - local official tells state news agency IRNA
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The Forecast Letter
The Forecast Letter@ForecastLetter·
Iran rejected the US 15-point proposal and issued its own 5-point counterproposal: end aggression, concrete guarantees of sovereignty, reparations, recognition of Iran's rights over the Strait of Hormuz. Read that last demand again: recognition of Iran's rights over Hormuz. America's entire April 6 deadline is about forcing Iran to OPEN Hormuz. Iran's counteroffer includes FORMAL RECOGNITION of Iran's right to control it. These are not opposing positions on a negotiating spectrum. These are different planets. Trump says "very close to a deal." The actual deal positions are as far apart as the war that started this. Day 28.
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The Spectator Index
The Spectator Index@spectatorindex·
The foreign Ministers of Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia have arrived in Pakistan for a meeting regarding the situation in the Middle East.
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The Forecast Letter
The Forecast Letter@ForecastLetter·
Iran & Houthis aren't dumb—they'll just turn Yanbu into the next Abqaiq. $200 oil incoming. Market's still sleeping.
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The Forecast Letter
The Forecast Letter@ForecastLetter·
🚨 EVERYONE THINKS YANBU SOLVED HORMUZ. IRAN 🇮🇷 AND HOUTHIS KNOW EXACTLY WHERE TO STRIKE NEXT. THE MARKET HASN'T PRICED THIS YET. Yanbu. 24°05'N 38°03'E. Red Sea. The only working oil export route on the planet right now. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser put the 1,200km Petroline at full 7 million barrel/day capacity on March 11. First time in its 45-year history. 27 VLCCs loading or inbound today. But here is the math nobody ran: Hormuz carried 20 million bpd. Yanbu terminals tested capacity is 3 million bpd per Vortexa. Gap: 17 million barrels. Unrecoverable. Yanbu is not the solution. It is the illusion of a solution. Now look at who can reach it: Iran's Khorramshahr-4 ballistic missile has a 2,000km range. Yanbu is 1,650km from Tehran. The Sejjil-2 reaches 2,000km. The Soumar cruise missile reaches 2,500km. All three reach Yanbu from Iranian soil with range to spare. Iran just hit Diego Garcia at 3,800km. Yanbu is not even a stretch. The Houthis are closer. Hodeidah Yemen to Yanbu: 920km. Their Burkan-3 ballistic missile range: 1,200km. August 2025 — Houthis already fired on tanker Scarlet Ray 40 nautical miles southwest of Yanbu. Before this war. That was the ranging shot. They were calibrating. Three things destroy Yanbu permanently: One strike on the Single Point Mooring buoys 3km offshore. One strike on the metering systems at Berths 1 through 4. One strike on the 11 million barrel tank farm manifold onshore. A Khorramshahr-4 with a 1,500kg warhead on the SPM buoy field puts Yanbu offline for 6-8 weeks. Not days. Weeks. The historical parallel: September 14 2019 — 18 Houthi drones hit Abqaiq. 5.7 million bpd offline in 17 minutes. Oil spiked 15%. Recovered in 11 days because Hormuz was still open. Today Hormuz is closed. Yanbu IS the only alternative. There is no third route. The 2019 recovery does not exist. The forecast: Yanbu offline plus Hormuz closed equals near-zero Saudi exports. Global spare capacity is zero. IEA reserves cover 4 days. Oil does not go to $150. It goes to $180-200 in 48 hours. And stays there. The April 6 deadline is 9 days away. Houthis entered the war today. Two strike vectors. One terminal. Zero defense depth. Consensus says Yanbu is the safety valve. This signal says Yanbu is the target because it is the safety valve. Iran does not close Hormuz and let Yanbu run freely. That is not strategy. That is surrendering your best card. Iran hit Diego Garcia at 3,800km. Yanbu is 1,650km from Tehran. The closest high-value undefended target on the planet. The market hasn't priced this. Have you? 👇 Forecast of the Forecast 🔮 #Yanbu #EnergyWar #Oil #Iran #TheSignal
The Forecast Letter tweet mediaThe Forecast Letter tweet media
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Joe Gibby
Joe Gibby@gibby_joe52901·
@SohamBhilare95 @financialjuice What the hell are these ships gonna do in the strait lol. Time for the family members of whoever is on those boats to prepare memorials
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FinancialJuice
FinancialJuice@financialjuice·
US sailors and Marines aboard USS Tripoli arrived in the US CENTCOM.
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The Forecast Letter
The Forecast Letter@ForecastLetter·
@spectatorindex We predicted it hours before.. x.com/i/status/20378…
The Forecast Letter@ForecastLetter

🚨 EVERYONE THINKS YANBU SOLVED HORMUZ. IRAN 🇮🇷 AND HOUTHIS KNOW EXACTLY WHERE TO STRIKE NEXT. THE MARKET HASN'T PRICED THIS YET. Yanbu. 24°05'N 38°03'E. Red Sea. The only working oil export route on the planet right now. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser put the 1,200km Petroline at full 7 million barrel/day capacity on March 11. First time in its 45-year history. 27 VLCCs loading or inbound today. But here is the math nobody ran: Hormuz carried 20 million bpd. Yanbu terminals tested capacity is 3 million bpd per Vortexa. Gap: 17 million barrels. Unrecoverable. Yanbu is not the solution. It is the illusion of a solution. Now look at who can reach it: Iran's Khorramshahr-4 ballistic missile has a 2,000km range. Yanbu is 1,650km from Tehran. The Sejjil-2 reaches 2,000km. The Soumar cruise missile reaches 2,500km. All three reach Yanbu from Iranian soil with range to spare. Iran just hit Diego Garcia at 3,800km. Yanbu is not even a stretch. The Houthis are closer. Hodeidah Yemen to Yanbu: 920km. Their Burkan-3 ballistic missile range: 1,200km. August 2025 — Houthis already fired on tanker Scarlet Ray 40 nautical miles southwest of Yanbu. Before this war. That was the ranging shot. They were calibrating. Three things destroy Yanbu permanently: One strike on the Single Point Mooring buoys 3km offshore. One strike on the metering systems at Berths 1 through 4. One strike on the 11 million barrel tank farm manifold onshore. A Khorramshahr-4 with a 1,500kg warhead on the SPM buoy field puts Yanbu offline for 6-8 weeks. Not days. Weeks. The historical parallel: September 14 2019 — 18 Houthi drones hit Abqaiq. 5.7 million bpd offline in 17 minutes. Oil spiked 15%. Recovered in 11 days because Hormuz was still open. Today Hormuz is closed. Yanbu IS the only alternative. There is no third route. The 2019 recovery does not exist. The forecast: Yanbu offline plus Hormuz closed equals near-zero Saudi exports. Global spare capacity is zero. IEA reserves cover 4 days. Oil does not go to $150. It goes to $180-200 in 48 hours. And stays there. The April 6 deadline is 9 days away. Houthis entered the war today. Two strike vectors. One terminal. Zero defense depth. Consensus says Yanbu is the safety valve. This signal says Yanbu is the target because it is the safety valve. Iran does not close Hormuz and let Yanbu run freely. That is not strategy. That is surrendering your best card. Iran hit Diego Garcia at 3,800km. Yanbu is 1,650km from Tehran. The closest high-value undefended target on the planet. The market hasn't priced this. Have you? 👇 Forecast of the Forecast 🔮 #Yanbu #EnergyWar #Oil #Iran #TheSignal

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The Spectator Index
The Spectator Index@spectatorindex·
BREAKING: Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz is now pumping oil at its full capacity of around 7 million barrels a day, according to Bloomberg report.
The Spectator Index tweet media
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Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський
When I travel outside of Ukraine, I get daily intelligence updates online. This morning, I was briefed that U.S. military facilities in the Middle East and the Gulf region were photographed by Russian satellites in the interests of Iran. On March 24th, they imaged the U.S.–UK joint military facility on Diego Garcia located in the Chagos Archipelago in the Indian Ocean. They also captured pictures of Kuwait International Airport and parts of the infrastructure of the Greater Burgan oil field. On March 25th, they took pictures of the Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia. The Shaybah oil and gas field in Saudi Arabia, İncirlik Air Base in Türkiye, and Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar were all imaged on March 26th. There are no Ukrainian facilities on this list. But who is helping whom when sanctions are lifted from an aggressor that earns daily revenue and provides intelligence for strikes against American, Middle Eastern, UK, and U.S.–UK bases and so on? When surveillance is carried out over facilities in Ukraine, we always understand that they must be protected, since plans are in motion to destroy them – energy and water infrastructure, military facilities, and so on. Everyone knows that repeated reconnaissance indicates preparations for strikes. How can sanctions be eased if this is what the Russians are doing? There must be pressure on the aggressor. And lifting sanctions is certainly not pressure. It looks strange. Sanctions are being lifted, while the aggressor is providing intelligence to strike facilities, including those of the countries that are discussing or have already lifted sanctions. From my conversation with journalists (3/3).
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