Forward Guidance

NEW POD: Think Like Everyone Else, Lose Like Everyone Else We Cover: 🔸 The trader’s mindset 🔸 Using LLMs to trade 🔸 Is Warsh actually hawkish? 🔸 Dollar-yen intervention 🔸 Bitcoin’s lost narrative & more! @donnelly_brent @fejau_inc Links Below ↓

LLMs are great consensus detectors. @donnelly_brent explains why AI-generated analysis often reflects the institutional average, not a differentiated view. But consensus framing tells you what is already priced and what everyone else is probably looking at.

Timstamp: 12:46 AI As A Trading Tool youtu.be/ezdo5kUD2WE

LLMs are consensus machines. AI is great at giving you median answers and aggregating consensus information, but successful trading requires differentiated thinking. Using LLMs to map where consensus is can still be useful, but they're not built for trading, which essentially requires non-consensus ideas. Chart inspired by @donnelly_brent's discussion on how he uses LLMs to trade.

Retail attention is a a great timing signal. @donnelly_brent explains why a theme first appearing on WallStreetBets can be bullish, while weeks of dominance can mean the consensus is already in the price. Early attention can fuel momentum, while sustained crowding can mark the point where the trade is already fully owned.

Bitcoin’s biggest problem is narrative exhaustion. “What are you actually cheering for? What are you hedging?” @donnelly_brent says BTC’s prior strength came from repeatedly attaching itself to new macro and market stories, but the next bull run may require a new story that isn't obvious yet.

ICYMI NEW POD We Cover: 🔸 The trader’s mindset 🔸 Using LLMs to trade 🔸 Is Warsh actually hawkish? 🔸 Dollar-yen intervention 🔸 Bitcoin’s lost narrative & more! @donnelly_brent @fejau_inc TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:00 Trading Outside The Box 06:38 Trading Psychology And Risk 12:46 AI As A Trading Tool 19:33 How LLMs Shape Markets 25:19 Kevin Warsh And The New Fed 33:37 The Yen Intervention Playbook 41:40 Is Government Debt Sustainable? 43:00 Has Bitcoin Lost Its Narrative?

@donnelly_brent Check out the full episode & more below! ↓ ➤ YouTube 🎥: shorturl.at/yVrAp ➤ Apple🎙️: shorturl.at/Se1Nt ➤ Spotify🎙️: shorturl.at/hdfDU

The big theme is that markets are increasingly about predicting people before prices catch up. 🔸 Consensus is the trade 🔸 Divergence creates edge 🔸 Fold bad setups 🔸 Over-earning creates risk 🔸 AI just maps consensus 🔸 Consensus can become momentum 🔸 Fed hawkishness looks performative 🔸 Dollar-yen needs real catalysts

Consensus is always the trade. Breakdown of our latest episode with @donnelly_brent ↓

“Coordinated intervention has worked almost every time.” @donnelly_brent says dollar-yen only gets a durable top if Japan gets real policy coordination, not another unilateral smash. Otherwise, the trade stays tactical: short into intervention, cover quickly, and wait for the real catalysts.

“The key to making money in markets is thinking what everyone else thinks, but just a bit before them.” @donnelly_brent says short-term edge has shifted from predicting policy to predicting people. Trading is less about knowing the perfect macro answer and more about anticipating where human attention moves next.

@donnelly_brent @fejau_inc Apple 🎙️: shorturl.at/Se1Nt Spotify 🎙️: shorturl.at/hdfDU YouTube 🎥: youtu.be/ezdo5kUD2WE

NEW POD: Think Like Everyone Else, Lose Like Everyone Else We Cover: 🔸 The trader’s mindset 🔸 Using LLMs to trade 🔸 Is Warsh actually hawkish? 🔸 Dollar-yen intervention 🔸 Bitcoin’s lost narrative & more! @donnelly_brent @fejau_inc Links Below ↓