Frauderer

10.4K posts

Frauderer

Frauderer

@Frauderer_

Rédacteur de thread trop longs au service du FC Technique

Katılım Temmuz 2022
58 Takip Edilen2.6K Takipçiler
Frauderer
Frauderer@Frauderer_·
cependant pas réussi à garder ce momentum dans le troisième et est vite retombé dans ses travers du premier set. Évidemment très curieux de voir Joao face à Alcaraz.
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Frauderer
Frauderer@Frauderer_·
stade il en demande encore beaucoup à son service et sa qualité de frappe pour garder un niveau plancher élevé. C’est en progrès, mais il y a eu une petite baisse de régime dans le deuxième qui a lancé le Hongrois, qui peut lui aussi avoir de sacrés peaks offensifs. Il n’a⬇️
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Frauderer
Frauderer@Frauderer_·
@tennisabstract @AnnaK_4ever well? And, if Fritz’s return is that far off, shouldn’t his quality also suffer even when he puts them in play, even against weaker serves? Overall I think it’s a strategic difference as Musetti blocks more, but even then I’m surprised Taylor is that close in RIP W%
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Frauderer
Frauderer@Frauderer_·
@tennisabstract @AnnaK_4ever About his return in play Win% supposedly being closer to Musetti’s because when he does return, it’s against weaker serves, so he can punish them more. I guess a counter would be : opposition sample bias aside, shouldn’t Musetti face those weaker serves too and punish them as
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Oleg S.
Oleg S.@AnnaK_4ever·
I doubt that Fritz being 8th in return quality score over last 52 weeks and 68th in return games won % helps anybody better understand anything.
Frauderer@Frauderer_

@AnnaK_4ever Agree, a player’s goal coming into a match shouldn’t be to farm Tennis Insights quality scores. But isn’t the goal of those algorithms to give better insights into performance, so that the players can improve upon it, and us fans can understand better what’s going on?

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Frauderer
Frauderer@Frauderer_·
Pas mal Kouamé (j’ai rien pu voir)
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Frauderer
Frauderer@Frauderer_·
@tennis_insights @tennisabstract @AnnaK_4ever Another bunch of questions 🤣. How much is the opponent’s serve weighed in? A 10 return off a 5 serve is worth less than a 10 off a 10 serve. Also, are misses scored differently from one another? A one-inch miss should be scored better than a full shank but idk about logistics
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Tennis Insights
Tennis Insights@tennis_insights·
Thanks for the question Jeff, confirming that misses and in % do contribute to the return quality metric📊 In comparison between Fritz and Musetti and their return shot qualities specifically, they achieve similar scores in a different return styles... Fritz gets there through hitting high speeds particularly off the 1st serve of his opponents Fritz Avg. 1st Serve Return Speed = 65mph Musetti Avg. 1st Serve Return Speed = 58mph Tour Avg. = 63mph This is because he return style includes more "hit" returns rather than "blocks" Fritz Topspin/Slice = 88/12 Musetti Topspin/Slice = 60/40 Tour Avg. = 84/16 But Musetti achieves better speeds on his 2nd serve return Fritz Avg. 2nd Serve Return Speed = 77mph Musetti Avg. 1st Serve Return Speed = 79mph Tour Avg. = 73mph And as you rightly say, Fritz does miss more, but when making 1st serves returns, does so with a higher speed... There is a choice here between being a returner that hits bigger and misses more (Fritz), or one that makes more and uses their defensive skills to try and break (Musetti)⚖️
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Frauderer
Frauderer@Frauderer_·
@AnnaK_4ever You’re being purposely obtuse now. Of course Tennis Insights is still an extremely noisy tool, the difficulty of their mission can not be understated. Doesn’t change the fact that wanting return *shot* quality to be linked to breaking serve kills its purpose
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Frauderer
Frauderer@Frauderer_·
@AnnaK_4ever It’s an analytical tool and it will be rendered meaningless if we just say « you broke, great score ». We already know that from the stats sheet.
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Frauderer
Frauderer@Frauderer_·
@AnnaK_4ever Agree, a player’s goal coming into a match shouldn’t be to farm Tennis Insights quality scores. But isn’t the goal of those algorithms to give better insights into performance, so that the players can improve upon it, and us fans can understand better what’s going on?
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Oleg S.
Oleg S.@AnnaK_4ever·
Then we just award the score for the sake of awarding the score which renders the whole assessment meaningless. "You hardly ever break serve but your return in isolation is great" — what's the point, what's the use of having such return then? What does it do for you?
Frauderer@Frauderer_

@AnnaK_4ever *Heavy* disagree that return quality should be related to breaking serve. In fact, those two elements not being related is the point: the goal is to isolate the return as shot. Just like you can hold a lot without a great serve, you can not break despite a great return if your

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Frauderer
Frauderer@Frauderer_·
@AnnaK_4ever subsequent baseline game is poor (not that it happens often as good returners generally are good baseliners, but still). Many ways to criticize TI’s algorithm and the results it produces on this shot but imo this is the worst possible one
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Frauderer
Frauderer@Frauderer_·
@AnnaK_4ever *Heavy* disagree that return quality should be related to breaking serve. In fact, those two elements not being related is the point: the goal is to isolate the return as shot. Just like you can hold a lot without a great serve, you can not break despite a great return if your
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Oleg S.
Oleg S.@AnnaK_4ever·
Thank you for replying but this still doesn't convince me the algorithm works. What's the point of assessing the return quality if it's unrelated to *breaking* the serve? Hitting (allegedly) deep returns should be beneficial to a receiver. If it's not — again, what's the point?
Tennis Insights@tennis_insights

Thanks for the questions! As you said you in your reply, our return quality metrics takes only the return into account by measuring the speed, spin depth and width of every return 📊 The "break rate" of players is also due to their skills in the point, although interestingly there is only 1% difference in their total return pts won🤏 Fritz = 34% Musetti = 35% Fritz does a good job at keeping players back off his return, with good scores for keeping players behind the baseline on both 1st and 2nd serves - see attached images📷 He does this with good speeds and a high % of topspin returns in comparison to the tour averages🌀 all whilst having played very big servers this year so far, with most of his matches indoors🎯 Finally, slight correction - Musetti's break rate on the ATP tour this season is 21%, not 28% as this includes Grand Slams✅

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Frauderer
Frauderer@Frauderer_·
notre interprétation de ces stats qui est subjective. Pour le « Serve Quality » j’ai plutôt confiance en TI, et j’aime aussi beaucoup leurs stats In Attack/Conversion/Steal, mais je suis plus frileux avec leurs autres qualités de coups (et encore plus de performance globale).
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Frauderer
Frauderer@Frauderer_·
* je dis metric et pas statistique car on rappelle que les chiffres de qualité de coup ne sont pas des stats mais bien des résultats algorithmiques. On doit donc les prendre avec des pincettes, contrairement aux véritables stats qui sont elles parfaitement objectives - c’est⬇️
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Frauderer
Frauderer@Frauderer_·
Cela fait un bon moment que Sinner est très largement en tête des stats de points gagnés au service. Distinction importante : ça ne faisait pas de lui le meilleur serveur du circuit. Mais selon le metric de Tennis Insights (*) il se rapproche de l’élite sur ce coup en soi. ⬇️
Tennis Insights@tennis_insights

2026 Shot Quality Leaderboards📊 Forehand Leader = @carlosalcaraz 👑 Shoutout for Fonseca after an impressive 9.0 performance on the forehand during Indian Wells takes him to 4th📈 Backhand Leader = @janniksin 🛡️ Shoutout for Fils on the comeback from injury📈 Return Leader = @janniksin 🔥 Shoutout for @carlosalcaraz who misses out on top spot by only 0.01😮 Serve Leader = Opelka 🎯 Shoutout for @janniksin who enter a serve top 10 leaderboard for the first time, putting him top 10 in every shot quality category👏 #TennisInsights | @atptour

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Frauderer
Frauderer@Frauderer_·
@AnnaK_4ever accurate as I always felt Taylor actually had an underrated capacity for blocking big serves (punishing weaker ones was harder) when not out of his athletic reach, but his low break% came from not stealing enough of those points he was able to start
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Frauderer
Frauderer@Frauderer_·
@AnnaK_4ever I agree that Return Quality is the noisiest metric that Tennis Insights produces. Though I think it has some merit by ranking the shot itself, not points won% that is heavily influenced by subsequent rallies. I feel like Fritz is now too high rated but previous years it felt more
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Oleg S.
Oleg S.@AnnaK_4ever·
I'm sorry but Return Quality is one metric where AI tools fail MISERABLY. Fritz has a break rate of 12% this season which is approaching Karlovic-level bad returning. Yet AI puts him at #5 in return quality, just 0.01 behind Musetti with a 28% break rate. It just doesn't add up.
Tennis Insights@tennis_insights

2026 Shot Quality Leaderboards📊 Forehand Leader = @carlosalcaraz 👑 Shoutout for Fonseca after an impressive 9.0 performance on the forehand during Indian Wells takes him to 4th📈 Backhand Leader = @janniksin 🛡️ Shoutout for Fils on the comeback from injury📈 Return Leader = @janniksin 🔥 Shoutout for @carlosalcaraz who misses out on top spot by only 0.01😮 Serve Leader = Opelka 🎯 Shoutout for @janniksin who enter a serve top 10 leaderboard for the first time, putting him top 10 in every shot quality category👏 #TennisInsights | @atptour

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Frauderer
Frauderer@Frauderer_·
@JosephWofford Agree on that, and movement is part of the equation too. But the reason Daniil’s ball sits up on clay is because the bounce is even higher than at IW, so there’s a middle ground to have there as he prefers high contact points but needs the ball to stay low
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Jwo
Jwo@JosephWofford·
@Frauderer_ If you read Hugh, he accurately points on that Daniil’s ball skidding low forced Sinner to hit up on the ball and play with more spin and net clearance than he normally would. It’s harder to get that effect on clay even if you’re hitting down on the ball
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Jwo
Jwo@JosephWofford·
Read Hugh Clarke and he pointed to Daniil’s very high avg. contact point in the final and how that allowed him to play so aggressively High bouncing conditions made this possible (and without them I have concerns about how effective Daniil’s offense can really be)
Jwo@JosephWofford

I will say IW probably helps him because of the high bounces and how that makes it easier to hit hard and flat, down on the ball. He’s always played good offense in Doha too (not really this year, but in the past) and that’s a very bouncy court. Food for thought

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Keşfet

@tennisabstract @AnnaK_4ever @tennis_insights @elonmusk @BarackObama @taylorswift13 @cristiano @BillGates