Fred Tillerson

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Fred Tillerson

Fred Tillerson

@FredTillerson

Thinker of things. Markets.

Indiana Katılım Mayıs 2020
1.4K Takip Edilen146 Takipçiler
Amena Bakr
Amena Bakr@Amena__Bakr·
Multiple sources cited below… anyone see 34 vessels on the 12th of April? I don’t.
World of Statistics@stats_feed

🚢 Vessels Crossed Strait of Hormuz 🟢 Feb 26 → 132 vessels 🟢 Feb 27 → 128 vessels 🟡 Feb 28 → 98 vessels 🟠 Mar 01 → 18 vessels 🔴 Mar 02 → 7 vessels 🔴 Mar 03 → 2 vessels 🔴 Mar 04 → 2 vessels 🔴 Mar 05 → 1 vessel ❌ Mar 06 → 0 vessels 🔴 Mar 07 → 1 vessel 🔴 Mar 08 → 2 vessels 🔴 Mar 09 → 1 vessel 🔴 Mar 10 → 2 vessels 🔴 Mar 11 → 1 vessel ❌ Mar 12 → 0 vessels 🔴 Mar 13 → 3 vessels 🔴 Mar 14 → 1 vessel ❌ Mar 15 → 0 vessels 🔴 Mar 16 → 1 vessel 🔴 Mar 17 → 2 vessels 🔴 Mar 18 → 1 vessel ❌ Mar 19 → 0 vessels 🔴 Mar 20 → 1 vessel 🔴 Mar 21 → 2 vessels 🔴 Mar 22 → 3 vessels 🔴 Mar 23 → 5 vessels 🔴 Mar 24 → 6 vessels 🔴 Mar 25 → 2 vessels 🔴 Mar 26 → 7 vessels 🔴 Mar 27 → 4 vessels 🟠 Mar 28 → 12 vessels 🔴 Mar 29 → 2 vessels 🔴 Mar 30 → 4 vessels 🔴 Mar 31 → 5 vessels 🔴 Apr 1 → 8 vessels 🔴 Apr 2 → 6 vessels 🟠 Apr 3 → 14 vessels 🟠 Apr 4 → 10 vessels 🟠 Apr 5 → 11 vessels 🔴 Apr 6 → 7 vessels 🟠 Apr 7 → 11 vessels 🔴 Apr 8 → 5 vessels 🔴 Apr 9 → 9 vessels 🔴 Apr 10 → 8 vessels 🟠 Apr 11 → 14 vessels 🟠 Apr 12 → 14 vessels Sources: Windward Maritime Intelligence, Lloyd’s List, PIB India, regional briefings, Maritime News, Kpler Risk and Compliance.

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Fred Tillerson
Fred Tillerson@FredTillerson·
Here u go Davey! 🇸🇦 7M: Saudi Reroute Net post-war addition is ~4 million bpd (East-West pipeline now delivers ~4.5–5 million bpd to VLCC exports at Yanbu vs. ~0.8 million pre-war). 📈 4.25M: Pre-War Surplus Net post-war addition is 0 bpd—this is not new rerouted volume and does not offset blocked Hormuz flows. 🇨🇳 2M: China Safe-Passage Net post-war addition is 0 bpd—no dedicated safe-passage exists; China-bound volumes face the same risks with no special offset. 🇦🇪 1.5M: UAE ADCOP reroute Net post-war addition is ~500,000 bpd (Fujairah exports rose to ~1.62 million bpd vs. ~1.17 million pre-war, despite overall UAE production cuts). 🇮🇷 1M: Iran Jask Bypass Net post-war addition is ~50,000–100,000 bpd average since March 1 (sporadic loadings vs. near-zero sustained pre-war use). 🇮🇳 400k: India Safe-Passage Net post-war addition is 0 bpd—no dedicated safe-passage or preferential volume for India. Realistic net global deficit is still ~14–15 million bpd after the ~5 million bpd total offsets; tanker limits and bottlenecks make the “2 more tankers” claim impossible.
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Fred Tillerson
Fred Tillerson@FredTillerson·
@thejbullmarket Please tell where this magic 4M bpd production increase comes from? You can add the reserve release to overall supply, but that has nothing to do with Hormuz flows and is a temporary bandaid…and your tweet was about supply, demand elasticity is another topic entirely.
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James Bull
James Bull@thejbullmarket·
@FredTillerson You gotta add 4M bpd oil production increase + 3.3M oil reserve release + 1.7M bpd demand destruction due to 50% higher prices.
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James Bull
James Bull@thejbullmarket·
The myth of the Strait of Hormuz closure. 80% (16.25M bpd) of the 20M barrels per day supply of the Strait of Hormuz has already been replaced or been rerouted. 🇸🇦 7M: Saudi Reroute 📈 4.25M: Pre-War Surplus 🇨🇳 2M: China Safe-Passage 🇦🇪 1.5M: UAE ADCOP reroute 🇮🇷 1M: Iran Jask Bypass 🇮🇳 400k: India Safe-Passage Deficit? Only 3.8M bpd and even just 2 more tankers per day would reduce the deficit to 0. With 1.3B and 500 millions barrels in combined reserves for China & India respectively, they have a 3-4 month reserves before they run into a deficit. This is why stocks are back at nearly ATH again. Opening the Strait of Hormuz has now merely turned into an afterthought.
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Mario Nawfal
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal·
🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S. Navy has started clearing mines from the Strait of Hormuz and the situation is messier than anyone is letting on Iran laid mines haphazardly in the opening hours of the war using small boats, and U.S. officials now believe Iran itself has lost track of where some of them ended up So nobody has a complete map of what's in the water Minesweeping is exactly as slow and dangerous as it sounds: sonar to detect, underwater drones to neutralize, one by one, in a 21-mile strait with an active adversary watching The U.S. retired its dedicated minesweeper fleet years ago and was supposed to replace them with Littoral Combat Ships But those two ships were quietly moved to Singapore in March, so destroyers are doing the job instead The UK would normally be America's go-to partner here, but Britain retired its own minesweeper fleet earlier this year before replacements were ready, a cost-cutting decision that aged very poorly very quickly London is sending autonomous minesweeping drones instead, impressive technology, but not quite the same thing Analysts have been warning about America's mine warfare gap since the Gulf War in 1991, the warnings were ignored for 30 years, and the bill just came due in the most strategically important waterway on earth
Mario Nawfal tweet mediaMario Nawfal tweet mediaMario Nawfal tweet mediaMario Nawfal tweet media
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump: "They [Iran] haven’t left the bargaining table. I predict they come back and they give us everything we want. I want everything. I don’t want 90%, I don’t want 95%. I want everything!"

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Fred Tillerson
Fred Tillerson@FredTillerson·
Please explain how they will remove any mines? The US Navy has three Littoral Combat Ships that are currently in Southeast Asia. The sensors on those ships struggle to detect mines in clear California coastal water. The Strait of Hormuz is turbid. These ships are new, untested, and weeks away from the strait.
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Hussain Abdul-Hussain
Hussain Abdul-Hussain@hahussain·
Been arguing this for sometime, Iran can’t close Hormuz without violating ceasefire since it’s closes it by targeting ships with projectiles or piracy style (boarding ships and coercing their crews). With US Navy removing possible mines and protecting ships, Hormuz will be clear for navigation.
Hussain Abdul-Hussain tweet media
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Fred Tillerson
Fred Tillerson@FredTillerson·
@redrock_bball They made the schedule thinking (per Vegas odds) that the spurs would be a 8 seed…that wasn’t a prime matchup at the time
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Josh Lloyd
Josh Lloyd@redrock_bball·
The NBA scheduling Nuggets-OKC and Nuggets-Spurs for the final two games of the season is so disturbing to me - do you not understand what the league is? Did they really thnk the odds would favour narrow nail biting seeding races on the final day of the season? That happens infrequently. Instead you waste marquee matchups on games that don't matter with teams prioritising health for the playoffs.
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Fred Tillerson
Fred Tillerson@FredTillerson·
@AndreasSteno Those vessels are mostly empty or container ships, it’s just embarrassing
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Andreas Steno Larsen
Andreas Steno Larsen@AndreasSteno·
Markets typically bottom, when the rate of change improves
Andreas Steno Larsen tweet media
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Grok
Grok@grok·
The 11m draught means these supertankers are sailing in "ballast" — mostly empty of cargo, loaded instead with seawater for stability and to control how they sit in the water. Fully loaded VLCCs draw ~20-22m. Ballasted, they float higher at ~11m, letting them hug the shallower Omani Musandam coastal route (avoiding Iran's deep-water choke point at Larak/Qeshm). Smart workaround.
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Mario Nawfal
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal·
🚨🇴🇲🇸🇦🇦🇪🇮🇷 Someone just found a way around Iran's toll booth... Three tankers loaded with Saudi and Emirati crude and LNG exited the Persian Gulf today through an unconventional route hugging Oman's Musandam coastline, completely bypassing Iran's checkpoint between Larak and Qeshm islands. Satellite imagery confirmed it. No spoofing. Real ships, real cargo, real breakthrough. These are the first fully insured, sanctions-compliant supertankers to leave the Gulf since the war started on February 28th. Four million barrels of crude on two ships alone. The route tells the whole story. Oman, which has quietly maintained relationships with both Iran and the West throughout this war, appears to have brokered a safe passage corridor through its own territorial waters. Iran either agreed to let it happen or couldn't stop it. If this corridor holds, it changes the entire economic calculus of the war. Gulf states can start moving oil again without paying Iran's toll or waiting for a UN resolution that Russia and China just blocked. The chokehold that gave Tehran its strongest leverage starts loosening without a single shot being fired. Three ships is a trickle. Normal traffic is 75-85 tankers a day. But every flood starts with a trickle, and energy markets are watching these three vessels like the world depends on it. Source: @TankerTrackers, ESA Satellite Imagery
Mario Nawfal tweet mediaMario Nawfal tweet mediaMario Nawfal tweet media
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal

🇺🇳🇮🇷 The Gulf's plan to force Hormuz open just hit a wall at the UN Russia, China, and France blocked Bahrain's Security Council resolution authorizing military force to reopen the Strait. Three veto-wielding powers said no to any language permitting the use of force. A vote is scheduled for Friday but the math hasn't changed. Macron called Trump's "just go take it" approach "unrealistic," warning it would expose any force to Iranian coastal weapons and ballistic missiles. The most devastating line came from the International Crisis Group: "It treats a political crisis as if it can be solved at gunpoint." The Strait was open before the bombs fell. It closed because of the war. Ending the war reopens it. Everything else is theater. The deeper damage is in the relationships. Qatar and Oman, who mediated between the U.S. and Iran for years, now say ties with Tehran are "probably irreparably damaged." They've handed the mediator role to Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt entirely. Saudi Arabia, which restored diplomatic relations with Iran just three years ago through a China-brokered deal, is now leading the charge against it at the UN. Source: New York Times

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Fred Tillerson
Fred Tillerson@FredTillerson·
@emilykschrader @BillAckman @SpencerGuard This analysis ignores Irans success of evading the most advanced missile defense systems on earth, destroying or hitting whatever they please across the Mideast, even taking out 4 THAADs…. All of these options will be met with retaliation nobody thought possible 4 weeks ago
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Hoops Tonight
Hoops Tonight@hoopstonite·
The Thunder are in a tier of their own on top of the NBA
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Fred Tillerson
Fred Tillerson@FredTillerson·
@VixCentral What? 95% of the flows through the straight originate upstream and destroying oil and gas around the straight only matters for Iranian crude.
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Eli Mintz
Eli Mintz@VixCentral·
A likely scenario, that is ignored, is that the Strait of Hormuz will not be worth opening because the US and Iran will have demolished most of the oil and gas infrastructure there. A bad outcome for everybody, but the US suffers the least, and that is why I think it is likely.
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Fred Tillerson
Fred Tillerson@FredTillerson·
@SavageSports_ He was a rookie who rushed back from a grade 3 mcl. No conversations will be had within the pats
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Savage
Savage@Savageboston·
The Will Campbell conversation will be taking place all offseason. I’d expect he gets another full season at left tackle, somewhat due to the fact that they don’t have a better option at that position.
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Fred Tillerson
Fred Tillerson@FredTillerson·
@NoaDalzell is the presser live streamed anywhere? Ask him what Tatum's minute restriction will be Sunday.
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Noa Dalzell 🏀
Noa Dalzell 🏀@NoaDalzell·
We'll be hearing from Brad Stevens at 11:15 at the Auerbach Center... if you could ask him anything, what would you ask?
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Fred Tillerson
Fred Tillerson@FredTillerson·
@ZeeContrarian1 And for the record with this post its rather obvious that you are a “former” Wall Street professional 😂😂😂
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Z@ZeeContrarian1·
Let’s put this in proper context. Silver rallied roughly 150% before correcting 50%. Bitcoin, by contrast, simply fell 50%. You have to think before drawing conclusions. Silver and gold corrected after performing exceptionally well. That pullback didn’t invalidate the thesis - it reset positioning before they went on to perform very, very well. A 50% drawdown means very different things depending on what came before it.
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Z@ZeeContrarian1·
After a move this violent in Bitcoin, any institution that bought it as a substitute or as a store of value is either already out or actively unwinding. There’s no scenario where a rational PM walks into an investment committee and pitches something that just lost 50% as a store of value. From here, it takes time, likely another couple of years-for volatility to compress, for price to stabilize, and only then for institutions to even consider revisiting the thesis.
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