FreshStats

Hey guys, I’ve been out for about a week with the flu. I’ll do my best to get picks out to you this week 💯 Here’s what I have for today. Full write-up in the Daily Edge article: freshstats.app/daily-edge Let’s cash🤞🏾🔥 #mlbpicks #baseball #baseballpicks #MLB #mlbbets

Almost got the 4-0 😩 Schmitt doubled then played like absolute shit for the rest of the game smh. Daily Edge article drops today at 1pm PST freshstats.app/daily-edge #mlbpicks #baseball #baseballpicks #mlb #mlbbets

Sunday Recap 5/17 Drake Baldwin HR ❌ Juan Soto 2+ Bases 🪝 SF@ATH o9.5 ✅ Brutal 1-2. Bounce back spot today 🤞🏾 Daily edge drops in 15. freshstats.app/daily-edge

Top Sharp Play⭐️ Drake Baldwin (+410 FD) Brayan Bello gets the start for Boston at Truist Park, and his underlying numbers tell a different story than his ERA. Bello carries a .387 wOBA against and .386 XWOBA in 2026, with a 12.5 Barrel% that puts him among the more hittable starters on the board. Baldwin bats left against a right-handed pitcher, the standard favorable split, and brings a 17.9 Barrel%, 92.3 avg exit velocity, and .397 xwOBA to the plate. Truist Park at 86°F? Yes. Let’s bounce back today 🤞🏾 freshstats.app/daily-edge #MLB #homerunpicks #dailyedge #MLBPicks

Munetaka Murakami - Chicago White Sox (16) Solo 389 feet +255

Mickey Moniak HR (+350 FD) Sugano starts for Colorado at Coors Field carrying a .398 xwOBA and 12.6 Barrel% against, one of the worst contact profiles in baseball. Coors thin air at 79°F is the top park environment on the slate. Simple.

Pete Alonso HR (+390 FD) Let’s try this again. Alonso faces Cavalli at Nationals Park, the hottest outdoor game on the slate at 82°F. Cavalli carries a .350 wOBA against and .318 xwOBA. Alonso carries a 94.2 avg exit velocity and 52.1 hard hit rate.

Top Sharp Play + On My Radar plays ⬇️ Corbin Carroll HR (+310 FD) Eduardo Rodriguez gets the start for Arizona at Coors Field. Carroll has a 11.2 Barrel%, 43.9 hard hit rate, and .357 wOBA in 2026. Coors Field at 79°F with thin air is the top park environment on the board today, and Sugano on the COL pitching side means this game is expected to score.

Blake Snell scratched Friday, per @katiejwoo.

Top Sharp Play 5/15 ⭐️ Gunnar Henderson HR (+390) Zack Littell gets the start for Washington, and he has been the most homer-friendly pitcher in baseball in 2026. He leads the majors in home runs allowed, having been taken deep in all but one of his first seven outings. His .409 wOBA and 12.3 Barrel % are both among the worst marks on the board. Henderson is one of the premier power hitters in the AL, with the bat speed and exit velocity to punish any mistake in the zone. Nationals Park at 72°F is a clean environment, no weather concerns. At +390, this is the best-priced power spot on the Friday slate. freshstats.app/daily-edge #MLB #homerun #DailyEdge #MLBpicks

Thursday Recap - Daily Edge (2-1) Nolan McLean o6.5Ks ✅ Elly De La Cruz HR ❌ Emmet Sheehan o5.5Ks ✅ Another profitable MLB day💰 Back at it this afternoon. Top Pick drops at 12pm. Subscribe to the Daily Edge free for today’s “On My Radar” plays, full weather write-ups, and more. freshstats.app/daily-edge #mlb #mlbpicks #homerun #SportsBetting

McLean ✅ De La Cruz ❌

Gotta love the day lates 😩

Top 10 HR for the day

On My Radar plays today 🗾 N. McLean 06.5 Ks (-134 FD). McLean has been one of the better starters in the NL this season: 2.78 ERA, 2.33 XERA, 2.39 FIP through eight starts. Detroit has been inconsistent offensively and McLean misses bats at an elite rate. Citi Field with 18 mph blowing across keeps this a pitcher's game and supports a deep outing. Elly De La Cruz HR (+410 FD). Foster Griffin draws the start for Washington at Great American Ball Park. Griffin carries a 2.12 ERA masking a 4.10 xERA and 4.08 FIP. Regression is coming. Griffin is left-handed, which means De La Cruz bats right-handed. That matters this year. His wRC+ vs left-handed pitching in 2026 is 163, up from never exceeding 64 in any previous season. He has five home runs against left-handed pitching in just 28 at-bats. The career concern vs LHP is no longer the story. E. Sheehan o5.5 Ks (-130 FD). Sheehan has struck out 7 or more in three straight starts against the Braves, Cardinals, and Cubs. San Francisco strikes out at a high rate against right-handed pitching, and Dodger Stadium at 65°F is a clean, pitcher-friendly environment for the nightcap. freshstats.app/daily-edge

5/13 Wednesday Recap: (1-4) Dylan Cease o6.5K ✅ Ben Rice HR ❌ DET/NYM o8 Total ❌ Top Pick: JJ Bleday ❌ Brutal Day Overall. Bounce back spot today. 📈