ShooterFuk

Bros gstack is so sick

@VitalikButerin @grok what is this nigga talking about and what is the opportunity at hand

Recently I have been starting to worry about the state of prediction markets, in their current form. They have achieved a certain level of success: market volume is high enough to make meaningful bets and have a full-time job as a trader, and they often prove useful as a supplement to other forms of news media. But also, they seem to be over-converging to an unhealthy product market fit: embracing short-term cryptocurrency price bets, sports betting, and other similar things that have dopamine value but not any kind of long-term fulfillment or societal information value. My guess is that teams feel motivated to capitulate to these things because they bring in large revenue during a bear market where people are desperate - an understandable motive, but one that leads to corposlop. I have been thinking about how we can help get prediction markets out of this rut. My current view is that we should try harder to push them into a totally different use case: hedging, in a very generalized sense (TLDR: we're gonna replace fiat currency) Prediction markets have two types of actors: (i) "smart traders" who provide information to the market, and earn money, and necessarily (ii) some kind of actor who loses money. But who would be willing to lose money and keep coming back? There are basically three answers to this question: 1. "Naive traders": people with dumb opinions who bet on totally wrong things 2. "Info buyers": people who set up money-losing automated market makers, to motivate people to trade on markets to help the info buyer learn information they do not know. 3. "Hedgers": people who are -EV in a linear sense, but who use the market as insurance, reducing their risk. (1) is where we are today. IMO there is nothing fundamentally morally wrong with taking money from people with dumb opinions. But there still is something fundamentally "cursed" about relying on this too much. It gives the platform the incentive to seek out traders with dumb opinions, and create a public brand and community that encourages dumb opinions to get more people to come in. This is the slide to corposlop. (2) has always been the idealistic hope of people like Robin Hanson. However, info buying has a public goods problem: you pay for the info, but everyone in the world gets it, including those who don't pay. There are limited cases where it makes sense for one org to pay (esp. decision markets), but even there, it seems likely that the market volumes achieved with that strategy will not be too high. This gets us to (3). Suppose that you have shares in a biotech company. It's public knowledge that the Purple Party is better for biotech than the Yellow Party. So if you buy a prediction market share betting that the Yellow Party will win the next election, on average, you are reducing your risk. Mathematical example: suppose that if Purple wins, the share price will be a dice roll between [80...120], and if Yellow wins, it's between [60...100]. If you make a size $10 bet that Yellow will win, your earnings become equivalent to a dice roll between [70...110] in both cases. Taking a logarithmic model of utility, this risk reduction is worth $0.58. Now, let's get to a more fascinating example. What do people who want stablecoins ultimately want? They want price stability. They have some future expenses in mind, and they want a guarantee that will be able to pay those expenses. But if crypto grows on top of USD-backed stablecoins, crypto is ultimately not truly decentralized. Furthermore, different people have different types of expenses. There has been lots of thinking about making an "ideal stablecoin" that is based on some decentralized global price index, but what if the real solution is to go a step further, and get rid of the concept of currency altogether? Here's the idea. You have price indices on all major categories of goods and services that people buy (treating physical goods/services in different regions as different categories), and prediction markets on each category. Each user (individual or business) has a local LLM that understands that user's expenses, and offers the user a personalized basket of prediction market shares, representing "N days of that user's expected future expenses". Now, we do not need fiat currency at all! People can hold stocks, ETH, or whatever else to grow wealth, and personalized prediction market shares when they want stability. Both of these examples require prediction markets denominated in an asset people want to hold, whether interest-bearing fiat, wrapped stocks, or ETH. Non-interest-bearing fiat has too-high opportunity cost, that overwhelms the hedging value. But if we can make it work, it's much more sustainable than the status quo, because both sides of the equation are likely to be long-term happy with the product that they are buying, and very large volumes of sophisticated capital will be willing to participate. Build the next generation of finance, not corposlop.

@ArchiveSeedBank I’m a developer, lmk

Ive never been a trapper. Not my place as a useless middleman. But check it out, I have connections to more grows than you could possibly have enough $ for. So Im going to do the community a service. If you're an out of towner, east or Uk etc and tired of getting bopped on the head for overpriced relabeled units of commercial "za" from some retard in a donkey hat. If you actually show up correct, solo, for all my grower friends and you take more than 10-20p a trip. I'll introduce you to whoever you need anywhere on the west coast or michigan FOR FREE. Think Leaflink for trappers, with no service charge. Shit I might just make an app. How about them apples? Lets get rid of all these turds and flush them once and for all. Who's in?

@gettinghighwith @urbanbuddhaslct need to put him on comish

Sorry but NY weed was not good. All the weed I saw that was grown in the state of NY was not it. I was really looking forward to finding some good haze or piff or any good weed from NY while I was in New York.

@Pieguy420 Iykyk some of the most unique terps I’ve ever had… respect

CINNAMON MILK living soil 🤌🏽🤌🏽🤌🏽🤌🏽

@sageadvik Good dick will do it

mfs who codes on weekends how do you keep your gfs happy?

Today I’m also committing $5 million to help 77 young athletes around the world chase their dreams, just like I did. Basketball gave me everything, and I’m lucky to be able to give back and help the next generation.

@Banks Nigga love to talk mental health after rugging hundreds of thousands of people.

Hot take: Andy Byron did nothing wrong. The CEO can fuck whichever employee he wants.

Ye told us he fucked his male cousin and we blew it off in a week

@EYakoby Yea go head and bomb these niggas @realDonaldTrump

In Iranian Parliament, MPs burn the American flag while chanting “Death to America,” and threaten to use a nuclear bomb against the American homeland. I think Iran actually is an American problem.

@LieutenantPonzi @JakobiCrypto @bully_btc Bully 😈✌️

Happy to announce that @JakobiCrypto & @bully_btc will now have their own alpha channels in Ponzi Tradez Discord. Super excited to have them give back after going through multiple cycles each. Quality > Quantity Feel free to join here whop.com/ponzi-trades/

Nigga just buy the list

@zqinfo James Wynn

who tf lost 1m this month on pf tokens???

Hot take: SF dating is trash because the girls are ugly

@Imperialclubla Why so hyped? I was smoking qps of this to the face 2 years ago

One of the most hyped up OGs in the cannabis industry right now 🤧

@exitValhalla Not even trying to shit on these girls but why does the pfp always look better than the random selfies. If you make me think you’re hot and I finally meet you in person and you’re ugly im calling ICE for wasting my time.