Gabe Farias

George Washington +7.5 confidence 61% edge 4.3 points game breakdown George Washington comes in as the underdog but the matchup suggests the gap between these teams is smaller than the spread implies. GW has a strong offensive profile with a 117.7 adjusted offensive efficiency and a 54.8 effective field goal rate. They also rebound extremely well on the offensive glass at 36.3 which creates second chance points and keeps their offense productive even when the first shot misses. Saint Louis is a dangerous offensive team with a 120 adjusted offensive efficiency and they shoot over 40 from three. They can score quickly and create runs, but their defense has not consistently created separation against teams that can shoot. Opponents are still able to generate efficient offense which keeps games competitive. These teams already played earlier this season and Saint Louis won 85 to 79 on a neutral floor. George Washington was able to score efficiently and keep pace throughout the game. That result lines up closely with the projected scoring margin in this matchup. The projection for this game lands closer to a one possession difference. With the line sitting at 7.5 there is enough cushion for George Washington to stay inside the number even if Saint Louis controls stretches of the game.