Good Judgment Open

Are you a Superforecaster®? Our 11th annual collaboration with The Economist is live. In The World Ahead 2026 challenge on GJ Open (gjopen.com/challenges/130…), you can test your skill on political, economic, and cultural questions. The winner will be published in The Economist!

Will Missouri’s new map hold up? Will SCOTUS side with the Trump administration on Syrian TPS? Will National or Labour win more seats in New Zealand? New on #GJOpen. Add your forecasts! gjopen.com/questions/5188…

Happy Friday, forecasters! How much will a gallon of gas cost you this spring? We have new energy questions on #GJOpen, covering US gas prices, a California $6.50 threshold, and WTI crude at $75. Start your forecasting engines! gjopen.com/questions/5183…

Also new on #GJOpen: Brent crude, the SPR, Venezuela oil output, US unemployment, consumer sentiment, fertilizer prices, the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix, and the FA Cup. Add your forecasts. gjopen.com/questions/5162…

▫️gjopen.com/questions/5164… ▫️gjopen.com/questions/5152…

Happy Friday the 13th, forecasters! New on #GJOpen: Will Mojtaba Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader before 19 September 2026? Will the US acknowledge deploying armed forces to mainland Iran before 9 May? Add your forecasts.

Reza Pahlavi’s possible return to Iran, Moderna’s mRNA flu vaccine, Reform UK in Scotland, MLB division winners, and more. It’s New Question Friday on #GJOpen with a good mix of geopolitics, markets, law, and sports. Add your forecasts! gjopen.com

New on GJ Open: forecasts on Iran war spillover and its ripple effects. Will a GCC state acknowledge striking Iran? When would a US-announced ceasefire begin? Where do Brent and European gas prices land next? Forecast here: gjopen.com #GJOpen

Millions of dollars trading on a Polymarket contract where “severely restricts” wasn’t defined until six weeks after launch. “Making up standards as you go does a disservice to market participants.” See Ryan Adler’s “Let Me Get This Strait” 👇

Polymarket bundled two tariff questions into one. The Supreme Court happened to treat them the same way, but it easily could have split the baby, as courts often do. Good question design matters, writes Ryan Adler, Superforecaster and Good Judgment Question Team Lead. Link👇

Also new on #GJOpen: Sweden’s 2026 Riksdag seats, two Supreme Court cases (Cisco v. Doe, Chatrie v. US geofence warrants), Blue Owl market cap, EU27 debt-to-GDP, and the 2026 Stanley Cup winner. Weigh in! gjopen.com/questions/5126…

Join the challenge: gjopen.com/challenges/136…

Happy Friday, forecasters. The new season of “Right!” Said FRED is live on #GJOpen: US Q2 2026 real GDP, June 2026 coffee prices, NASDAQ, Federal Reserve dollar index, and ETH price. Add your forecasts!

New #GJOpen questions: WBD shareholders and a proposed Netflix merger (20 March 2026), Antarctic sea ice peak, Lake Powell power pool, US corporate bond issuance, plus the 2026 NBA Finals and F1 titles. Weigh in! gjopen.com/questions/5092…

Happy Friday, forecasters! New #GJOpen questions on the Supreme Court: FCC monetary penalties (Verizon/AT&T) and Mississippi late-arriving ballots (Watson v RNC). Add your forecasts: gjopen.com/questions/5083…

It’s New Question Friday on #GJOpen. We launched the new Roche AI Challenge, plus questions on China and US coal capacity, the 2026 US trade deficit, remittances to Mexico, and Rivian EV output. Weigh in and test your forecasting skills. gjopen.com/challenges/135…

Happy Friday, forecasters. New on #GJOpen: Will the UK Parliament dissolve before 12 December 2026? Will Keir Starmer leave office before 30 May 2026? Who will win New Jersey’s 11th special election? Add your forecasts. gjopen.com/questions/5077…

Good Judgment is featured in today’s @nytimes on the future of forecasting. Our CEO Dr. Warren Hatch @wfrhatch discusses how Superforecasters have an edge when the data is sparse and the environment is in flux. nytimes.com/2026/02/11/bus…

Also live on #GJOpen: Cuba's leadership change before 1 Jan 2027? Who will rank first on Humanity's Last Exam by 18 Dec 2026? Plus, the 2026 World Baseball Classic winner. Weigh in! gjopen.com/questions/5057…

Happy Friday, forecasters! New on #GJOpen: China's retail sales (Q2 2026), US EV sales (H1 2026), Germany's electricity, and BoE rates. Add your forecasts and track your performance. gjopen.com/questions/5044…

Find your next forecasting challenge on #GJOpen: gjopen.com Full interview: goodjudgment.com/2025-ufc-winne…

3. Embrace intellectual humility. Every winner faced overconfidence, missed signals, or unfamiliar domains. They treated mistakes as lessons, not failure, and topped the student leaderboard.

Three lessons from the top student forecasters of 2025: 1. Base rates first. All three winners emphasized anchoring to historical data or statistical baselines before adding on their own judgment to the mix. The crowd is a useful signal, but only after you’ve done your own work.